Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T02:18:50.354Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Provocation and the Strategy of Terrorist and Guerrilla Attacks

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 December 2015

David B. Carter
Get access

Abstract

Violent nonstate groups are usually weaker than the states they target. Theory suggests that groups carefully condition their choice of tactics on anticipated state response. Yet scholars know very little about whether and how groups strategically plan attacks in anticipation of state response. Scholars do not know if and under what conditions groups employ violent tactics to provoke or avoid a forceful state response, although extant theory is consistent with both possibilities. Relatedly, there is little systematic evidence about why groups choose terrorist or guerrilla tactics and how this choice relates to anticipated state response. I develop a theoretical and empirical model of the interaction between groups and states that generates unique evidence on all three fronts. Using data on attacks in Western Europe from 1950 to 2004, I show that guerrilla attacks are sometimes associated with provoking forceful state response, whereas terrorist attacks are generally associated with avoiding forceful response. Groups effectively choose their tactics to avoid forceful state responses that are too damaging for themselves but provoke forceful responses that disproportionately harm civilians. These findings survive several robustness and model specification tests.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 70 , Issue 1 , Winter 2016 , pp. 133 - 173
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Atkinson, Scott E., Sandler, Todd, and Tschirhart, John. 1987. Terrorism in a Bargaining Framework. Journal of Law and Economics 30 (1)(April):1–21.Google Scholar
Bapat, Navin A. 2007. The Internationalization of Terrorist Campaigns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 24 (4):265–80.Google Scholar
Bas, Muhammet Ali, Signorino, Curtis S., and Walker, Robert W.. 2007. Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models. Political Analysis 16:21–41.Google Scholar
Berrebi, Claude, and Klor, Esteban F.. 2006. On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes: Theory and Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (6):899–925.Google Scholar
Bloom, Mia. 2005. Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005a. Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence. International Organization 59 (1):145–76.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2005b. The Quality of Terror. American Journal of Political Science 49 (3):515–30.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2007. Politics and the Suboptimal Provision of Counterterror. International Organization 61 (1):9–36.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan. 2013. Rebel Tactics. Journal of Political Economy 121 (2):323–57.Google Scholar
Carter, David B. 2012a. A Blessing or a Curse? State Support for Terrorist Groups. International Organization 66 (1):129–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, David B. 2012b. Terrorist Group and Government Interaction: Progress in Empirical Research. Perspectives on Terrorism 6 (4–5):109–25.Google Scholar
Carter, David B. 2015a. The Compellence Dilemma: International Disputes with Violent Groups. International Studies Quarterly 59 (3):461–76.Google Scholar
Carter, David B. 2015b. When Terrorism Is Evidence of State Success: Securing the State Against Territorial Groups. Oxford Economic Papers 67 (1):116–32.Google Scholar
Chalk, Peter. 1993. West European Terrorism and Counter-terrorism: The Evolving Dynamic. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1–2):67–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chenoweth, Erica. 2010. Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity. Journal of Politics 72 (1):16–30.Google Scholar
Clarke, Kevin. 2001. Testing Nonnested Models of International Relations: Reevaluating Realism. American Journal of Political Science 45 (3)(July):724–44.Google Scholar
Condra, Luke N., and Shapiro, Jacob N.. 2012. Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage. American Journal of Political Science 56 (1)(January):167–87.Google Scholar
Crenshaw, Martha. 1981. The Causes of Terrorism. Comparative Politics 13 (4)(July):379–99.Google Scholar
Della Porta, Donatella. 1995. Social Movements, Political Violence, and the State: A Comparative Analysis of Italy and Germany. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Department of Homeland Security. 2002. The National Strategy for Homeland Security.Google Scholar
Dragu, Tiberiu. 2011. Is There a Trade-off Between Security and Liberty? Executive Bias, Privacy Protections, and Terrorism Prevention. American Political Science Review 105 (1):64–78.Google Scholar
Dugan, Laura, and Chenoweth, Erica. 2012. Moving Beyond Deterrence: The Effectiveness of Raising the Expected Utility of Abstaining from Terrorism in Israel. American Sociological Review 77 (4):597–624.Google Scholar
Engene, Jan Osker. 2004. Terrorism in Western Europe: Explaining the Trends Since 1950. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
English, Richard. 2003. Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (4):379–414.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. The American Political Science Review 97 (1):75–90.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. Expanded Trade and GDP Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (5):712–24.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Robert J. 1983. Political Repression in Nineteenth-Century Europe. Beckenham: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Hoffman, Bruce. 2006. Inside Terrorism: Revised and Expanded Edition. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Jaeger, David A., Klor, Esteban F., Miaari, Sami H., and Paserman, M. Daniele. 2012. The Struggle for Palestinian Hearts and Minds: Violence and Public Opinion in the Second Intifada. Journal of Public Economics 96:354–68.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Alison. 1989. The Heart Attacked: Terrorism and Conflict in the Italian State. London: Marion Boyars.Google Scholar
Kim, Heemin, and Fording, Richard C.. 2002. Government Partisanship in Western Democracies, 1945–1998. European Journal of Political Research 41 (2):187–206.Google Scholar
Koch, Michael T., and Cranmer, Skyler. 2007. Testing the “Dick Cheney” Hypothesis: Do Governments of the Left Attract More Terrorism than Governments of the Right? Conflict Management and Peace Science 24 (4):311–26.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew, and Walter, Barbara. 2002. Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence. International Organization 56 (2):263–96.Google Scholar
Kydd, Andrew, and Walter, Barbara. 2006. The Strategies of Terrorism. International Security 31 (1):49–80.Google Scholar
Lake, David A. 2002. Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century. International Organization Dialog-IO (Spring):15–29.Google Scholar
Laqueur, Walter. 1987. The Age of Terrorism. Boston: Little Brown.Google Scholar
Li, Quan. 2005. Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents? Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (2):278–97.Google Scholar
Marighella, Carlos. 1971. Minimanual of the Urban Guerilla. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 13 (3):95–100.Google Scholar
Mas-Colell, Andreu, Whinston, Michael, and Green, Jerry. 1995. Microeconomic Theory. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
McAdam, Doug. 1982. Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930–1970. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Merari, Ariel. 1993. Terrorism as a Strategy of Insurgency. Terrorism and Political Violence 5 (4):213–51.Google Scholar
Moncourt, Andre, and Smith, J., eds. 2009. The Red Army Faction: A Documentary History, Vol. I. Oakland: PM Press.Google Scholar
Nalbandian, Louise. 1963. Armenian Revolutionary Movement: The Development of Armenian Political Parties Through the Nineteenth Century. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert A. 2003. The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. American Political Science Review 97 (3):343–61.Google Scholar
Pillar, Paul R. 2001. Terrorism and US Foreign Policy. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Richardson, Louise. 2006. What Terrorists Want: Understanding the Enemy, Containing the Threat. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Rosendorff, B. Peter, and Sandler, Todd. 2004. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Proactive Response Dilemma. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (2):657–71.Google Scholar
Sandler, Todd, Tschirhart, John T., and Couley, Jon. 1983. A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism. American Political Science Review 77 (4):36–56.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2010. War as an Enforcement Problem: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars. International Organization 64 (2):281–312.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 1999. Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict. American Political Science Review 93 (2):279–97.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 2003. Structure and Uncertainty in Discrete Choice Models. Political Analysis 11 (4):316–44.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S., and Yilmaz, Kuzey. 2003. Strategic Misspecification in Regression Models. American Journal of Political Science 47 (3):551–66.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert. 1997. Administrative Behavior. 4th ed. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
START. 2012. “Global Terrorism Database.” Available at http://www.start.umd.edu/data/gtd/. Accessed 20 October 2015.Google Scholar
Zirakzadeh, Cyrus Ernesto. 2002. From Revolutionary Dreams to Organizational Fragmentation: Disputes over Violence within ETA and Sendero Luminoso. Terrorism and Political Violence 14 (4):66–92.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Carter supplementary material

Replication files

Download Carter supplementary material(File)
File 81.3 KB