Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T02:22:24.222Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on US Presidential Voting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 May 2017

J. Bradford Jensen ,
Dennis P. Quinn  and
Stephen Weymouth
Get access

Abstract

International trade directly influences US presidential elections. We explore the electoral implications of the increasing tradability of services and the large US surplus in services trade. Our paper builds on prior work showing that job insecurity from import competition in manufacturing diminishes political support for incumbents. We construct novel measures of the tradability of an industry using establishment-level data covering nearly all US economic activity. We find increases in incumbent party vote shares in counties with large numbers of workers in high-skilled tradable services as well as goods, and decreases in counties with high employment in low-skilled manufacturing. Incumbent parties are particularly vulnerable to losing votes in swing states with many low-skilled manufacturing workers. In national-level models, we show for the first time that increasing imports (exports) are associated with decreasing (increasing) presidential incumbent vote shares. The national-level effects are large and politically consequential. We also find an Electoral College incentive to protect the manufacturing sector and to oppose trade agreements.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 71 , Issue 3 , Summer 2017 , pp. 423 - 457
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential-Election Outcomes. PS: Political Science and Politics 21 (4):843–47.Google Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan I. 2008. It's About Time: Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):209–17.Google Scholar
Abramowitz, Alan I. 2014. Long-Term Trends and Short-Term Forecasts: The Transformation of US Presidential Elections in an Age of Polarization. PS: Political Science and Politics 47 (2):289–92.Google Scholar
Antoniades, Alexis, and Calomiris, Charles W.. 2016. Mortgage Market Credit Conditions and US Presidential Elections. Research Paper 16–43. New York: Columbia Business School. Available at SSRN, <https://ssrn.com/abstract=2796462>..>Google Scholar
Autor, David H., Dorn, David, and Hanson, Gordon H.. 2013. The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States. American Economic Review 103 (6):2121–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, David H., Dorn, David, Hanson, Gordon H., and Majlesi, Kaveh. 2016. Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. Working paper 22637. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau for Economic Research.Google Scholar
Bailey, Michael A., Goldstein, Judith, and Weingast, Barry R.. 1997. The Institutional Roots of American Trade Policy: Politics, Coalitions, and International Trade. World Politics 49 (3):309–38.Google Scholar
Bernard, Andrew, Jensen, J. Bradford, and Schott, Peter K.. 2006. Survival of the Best Fit: Exposure to Low-Wage Countries and the (Uneven) Growth of US Manufacturing Plants. Journal of International Economics 68 (1):219–37.Google Scholar
Blanchard, Emily, and Matschke, Xenia. 2015. US Multinationals and Preferential Market Access. Review of Economics and Statistics 97 (4):839–54.Google Scholar
Broz, J. Lawrence, and Werfel, Steven H.. 2014. Exchange Rates and Industry Demands for Trade Protection. International Organization 68 (2):393–416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burstein, Ariel, and Vogel, Jonathan. Forthcoming. International Trade, Technology, and the Skill Premium. Journal of Political Economy.Google Scholar
Busch, Marc L., and Reinhardt, Eric. 2000. Geography, International Trade, and Political Mobilization in US Industries. American Journal of Political Science 44 (4):703–19.Google Scholar
Busch, Marc L., and Reinhardt, Eric. 2005. Industrial Location and Voter Participation in Europe. British Journal of Political Science 35 (4):713–30.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2008. US Presidential Election Forecasting: An Introduction. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):189–92.Google Scholar
Che, Yi, Lu, Yi, Pierce, Justin, Schott, Peter K., and Tao, Zhigang. 2016. Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence US Elections? Working Paper 22178. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chase, Kerry A. 2003. Economic Interests and Regional Trading Arrangements: The Case of NAFTA. International Organization 57 (1):137–74.Google Scholar
Chase, Kerry A. 2008. Moving Hollywood Abroad: Divided Labor Markets and the New Politics of Trade in Services. International Organization 62 (4):653–87.Google Scholar
Chase, Kerry A. 2015. Domestic Geography and Policy Pressures. In The Oxford Handbook of the Political Economy of International Trade, edited by Martin, Lisa L., 316–34. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Crino, Rosario. 2010. Service Offshoring and White-Collar Employment. Review of Economic Studies 77 (2):595–632.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Destler, I.M. 2005. American Trade Politics. 4th ed. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Destler, I.M. 2016. America's Uneasy History With Free Trade. Harvard Business Review, 26 April. Available at <https://hbr.org/2016/04/americas-uneasy-history-with-free-trade>. Accessed 1 February 2017.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1989. Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote. American Political Science Review 83 (2):567–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 2009. The American Voter and the Economy, 2008. PS: Political Science and Politics 42 (3):467–71.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 1978. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President. Review of Economics and Statistics 60 (2):159–73.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 2009. Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations. American Journal of Political Science 53 (1):55–72.Google Scholar
Feigenbaum, James J., and Hall, Andrew B.. 2015. How Legislators Respond to Localized Economic Shocks: Evidence from Chinese Import Competition. Journal of Politics 77 (4):1012–30.Google Scholar
Gervais, Antoine, and Jensen, J. Bradford. 2013. The Tradability of Services: Geographic Concentration and Trade Costs. Working Paper 19759. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Judith. 1994. Ideas, Interests, and American Trade Policy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Grant, Taylor, and Lebo, Matthew J.. 2016. Error Correction Methods with Political Time Series. Political Analysis 24 (1):3–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens, and Hiscox, Michael J.. 2006. Learning to Love Globalization: Education and Individual Attitudes Toward International Trade. International Organization 60 (2):469–98.Google Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy. 2011. Economic Globalization and Mass Politics Ten Country Study Data Set. October 20 version. Available at <https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:1902.1/16898>. Accessed 20 October 2016..+Accessed+20+October+2016.>Google Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy. 2014. Balancing Demands: The World Economy and the Composition of Policy Preferences. Journal of Politics 76 (1):1–14.Google Scholar
Hellwig, Timothy, and Samuels, David. 2007. Voting in Open Economies: The Electoral Consequences of Globalization. Comparative Political Studies 40 (3):283–306.Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas. 2000. Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections. Public Choice 104 (1):149–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 1999. The Magic Bullet? The RTAA, Institutional Reform, and Trade Liberalization. International Organization 53 (4):669–98.Google Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 2002. Commerce, Coalitions, and Factor Mobility: Evidence from Congressional Votes on Trade Legislation. American Political Science Review 96 (3):593–608.Google Scholar
Jarmin, Ron S., and Miranda, Javier. 2002. The Longitudinal Business Database. Working paper 02–17. Washington, DC: Center for Economic Studies, US Census Bureau.Google Scholar
Jensen, J. Bradford. 2011. Global Trade in Services: Fear, Facts, and Offshoring. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Jensen, J. Bradford, and Kletzer, Lori G.. 2006. Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Offshoring. In Brookings Trade Forum 2005, Offshoring White-Collar Work, edited by Collins, Susan M. and Brainard, Lael, 75–134. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Jensen, J. Bradford, and Kletzer, Lori G.. 2010. Measuring Tradable Services and the Task Content of Offshorable Services Jobs. In Labor in the New Economy, edited by Abraham, Katharine G., Spletzer, James R., and Harper, Michael J., 309–35. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Jensen, J. Bradford, Quinn, Dennis P., and Weymouth, Stephen. 2014. Services Liberalization and MNC Activities. Paper Presented at the 110th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association Convention, August, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Jensen, J. Bradford, Quinn, Dennis P., and Weymouth, Stephen. 2015. The Influence of Firm Global Supply Chains and Foreign Currency Undervaluations on US Trade Disputes. International Organization 69 (4):913–47.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Leininger, Arndt. 2015. Vintage Errors: Do Real-Time Economic Data Improve Election Forecasts? Research and Politics 2 (3):1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kayser, Mark A., and Peress, Michael. 2012. Benchmarking Across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparisons. American Political Science Review 106 (3):661–84.Google Scholar
Keeter, Scott, and Igielnik, Ruth. 2016. Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved? Evidence from the 2014 US House Elections. Pew Research Center. 7 January. Available at <http://www.pewresearch.org/2016/01/07/can-likely-voter-models-be-improved/>. Accessed 2 February 2017..+Accessed+2+February+2017.>Google Scholar
Kim, In Song. 2017. Political Cleavages within Industry: Firm-level Lobbying for Trade Liberalization. American Political Science Review 111 (1):1–20.Google Scholar
Krueger, Alan B., and Summers, Lawrence H.. 1988. Efficiency Wages and the Inter-Industry Wage Structure. Econometrica 56 (2):259–93.Google Scholar
Krugman, Paul R. 2000. Technology, Trade and Factor Prices. Journal of International Economics 50 (1):51–71.Google Scholar
Leamer, Edward E. 2007. A Flat World, a Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above? A Review of Thomas L. Friedman's The World is Flat . Journal of Economic Literature 45 (1):83–126.Google Scholar
Leip, David. 2016. Dave Leip's Atlas of American Presidential Elections. Available at <http://www.uselectionatlas.org>. Accessed 15 January 2015 and 12 October 2016.. Accessed 15 January 2015 and 12 October 2016.' href=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Leip,+David.+2016.+Dave+Leip's+Atlas+of+American+Presidential+Elections.+Available+at+.+Accessed+15+January+2015+and+12+October+2016.>Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3:183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2004. Jobs and the Job of the President: A Forecast for 2004. PS: Political Science and Politics 37 (4):753–58.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2008. Forecasting Presidential Elections: When to Change the Model. International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2):227–36.Google Scholar
Manger, Mark S. 2009. Investing in Protection: The Politics of Preferential Trade Agreements Between North and South. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mano, Rui C., and Castillo, Morola. 2015. The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries. Working Paper 15/48. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Mutz, Diana C.. 2009. Support for Free Trade: Self-Interest, Sociotropic Politics, and Out-Group Anxiety. International Organization 63 (3):425–57.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Mutz, Diana C.. 2013. US Versus Them: Mass Attitudes Toward Offshore Outsourcing. World Politics 65 (4):571–608.Google Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2011. Costly Jobs: Trade-Related Layoffs, Government Compensation, and Voting in US Elections. American Political Science Review 105 (1):166–88.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen V. 1988. Trading Places: Industries for Free Trade. World Politics 40 (3):350–76.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin H. 2011. Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy. International Organization 65 (1):37–68.Google Scholar
Oldenski, Lindsay. 2014. Offshoring and the Polarization of the US Labor Market. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 67 (3):734–61.Google Scholar
Osgood, Iain. 2016. Globalizing the Supply Chain: Firm and Industrial Support for US Trade Agreements. Unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.Google Scholar
Osgood, Iain. 2017. The Breakdown of Industrial Opposition to Trade: Firms, Product Variety and Reciprocal Liberalization. World Politics 69 (1):184–231.Google Scholar
Owen, Erica. Forthcoming. Exposure to Offshoring and the Politics of Trade Liberalization: Debates and Votes on Free Trade Agreements in the US House of Representatives, 2001–2006. International Studies Quarterly.Google Scholar
Owen, Erica, and Johnston, Noel. Forthcoming. Occupation and the Political Economy of Trade: Job Routineness, Offshorability, and Protectionist Sentiment. International Organization.Google Scholar
Owen, Erica, and Quinn, Dennis P.. 2016. Does Economic Globalization Influence the US Policy Mood? A Study of US Public Sentiment, 1956–2009. British Journal of Political Science 46 (1):95–125.Google Scholar
Pesaran, M. Hashem, and Smith, Richard J.. 1994. A Generalized R2 Criterion for Regression Models Estimated by the Instrumental Variables Method. Econometrica 62 (3):705–10.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37 (2):391–414.Google Scholar
Quinn, Dennis P., and Woolley, John T.. 2001. Democracy and National Economic Performance: The Preference for Stability. American Journal of Political Science 45 (3):634–57.Google Scholar
Rho, Sungmin, and Tomz, Michael. 2017. Why Don't Trade Preferences Reflect Economic Self-Interest? International Organization 71 (S1):S85–S108.Google Scholar
Rickard, Stephanie J. 2015. Compensating the Losers: An Examination of Congressional Votes on Trade Adjustment Assistance. International Interactions 41 (1):46–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald. 1987. Political Cleavages and Changing Exposure to Trade. American Political Science Review 81 (4):1121–37.Google Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald. 1989. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sabet, Shahrzad. 2016. Feelings First: Non-Material Factors as Moderators of Economic Self-Interest Effects on Trade Preferences. Unpublished manuscript, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth, and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2004. Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4):662–74.Google Scholar
Sturgeon, Timothy J., Levy, Frank, Brown, Claire, Jensen, J. Bradford, and Weil, David. 2006. Services Offshoring Working Group Final Report. Industrial Performance Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. Available at <https://ipc.mit.edu/sites/default/files/documents/IPC_Offshoring_Report.pdf>. Accessed 2 February 2017..+Accessed+2+February+2017.>Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2015a. Real Exports of Goods and Services. Retrieved from FRED. St. Louis, MI): Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXPGSCA>. Accessed 9 November 2015..+Accessed+9+November+2015.>Google Scholar
US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2015b. US International Transactions Accounts Data. Historical Statistics of the US. Available at <http://www.econdataus.com/tradeall.html>. Accessed 9 November 2015..+Accessed+9+November+2015.>Google Scholar
US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2015. Industry Employment and Output Projections to 2024. Monthly Labor Review, December. Available at <https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/industry-employment-and-output-projections-to-2024.htm>. Accessed 9 November 2015..+Accessed+9+November+2015.>Google Scholar
US Department of Agriculture. 2016. Commuting Zones and Labor Market Areas Data Sets. Available at <https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/commuting-zones-and-labor-market-areas>. Accessed 20 October 2016..+Accessed+20+October+2016.>Google Scholar
Walter, Stefanie. 2010. Globalization and the Welfare State: Testing the Microfoundations of the Compensation Hypothesis. International Studies Quarterly 54 (2):403–26.Google Scholar
Walter, Stefanie. 2016. Globalization and the Demand-Side of Politics: How Globalization Shapes Labor Market Risk Perceptions and Policy Preferences. Political Science Research and Methods 50 (1):55–80.Google Scholar
Weymouth, Stephen. Forthcoming. Services Firms in the Politics of US Trade Policy. International Studies Quarterly.Google Scholar
Wright, John R. 2012. Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage. American Political Science Review 106 (4):685–702.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Jensen supplementary material

Jensen supplementary material 1

Download Jensen supplementary material(File)
File 873 KB