Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T21:25:21.007Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Was Mattarella worth the trouble? Explaining the failure of the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 January 2018

Fedra Negri Open the ORCID record for Fedra Negri [Opens in a new window]  and
Elisa Rebessi
Fedra Negri*
Affiliation:
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
Elisa Rebessi
Affiliation:
Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
*
* E-mail: fedra.negri@unimi.it
Get access

Abstract

The election of President Mattarella is a turning point in Matteo Renzi’s attempt to reform the constitution. This choice determined the loss of Forza Italia’s support to the constitutional reform, thus leaving the Renzi cabinet and the Democratic Party alone on the Yes-side. Our goal is to assess the degree of Renzi’s misjudgment by comparing two theoretical perspectives on voting behavior in direct-democratic settings through a nested design. Our results highlight that vote choices can be explained by both the systematic and the heuristic modes of information processing. Respondents’ agreement with the content of the reform (systematic mode) and a positive evaluation of the Renzi cabinet (heuristic mode) are key predictors of Yes vote. Instead, the negative assessment of the economic situation is a crucial driver of No vote. Lastly, we build a bridge between these two perspectives by showing that partisan attachments conditioned the effect of respondents’ content evaluation on voting behavior.

Keywords

Italyreferendumvoting behaviorprime ministerpolitical parties
Type
Research Article
Information
Italian Political Science Review / Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica , Volume 48 , Issue 2 , July 2018 , pp. 177 - 196
Copyright
© Società Italiana di Scienza Politica 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bellucci, P., Angelis, A.D. and Garzia, D. (2017), ‘When personalization meets direct democracy. An analysis of the determinants of voting in the Italian Constitutional referendum, 2016’. Paper presented at the ITANES Workshop ‘Referendum Costituzionale 2016: Elettori, Partiti e Media nella Seconda Repubblica’, February 9–10, Rome.Google Scholar
Borges, W. and Clarke, H. (2008), ‘Cues in context: analyzing the heuristics of referendum voting with an internet survey experiment’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 18(4): 433–448.Google Scholar
Born, R. (1990), ‘Surge and decline, negative voting, and the midterm loss phenomenon: a simultaneous choice analysis’, American Journal of Political Science 34(3): 615–645.Google Scholar
Boudreau, C. and MacKenzie, S.A. (2014), ‘Informing the electorate? How party cues and policy information affect public opinion about initiatives’, American Journal of Political Science 58: 48–62.Google Scholar
Brambor, T., Clark, W.R. and Golder, M. (2006), ‘Understanding interaction models: improving empirical analyses’, Political Analysis 14(1): 63–82.Google Scholar
Bull, M.J. and Newell, J.L. (2009), ‘Still the anomalous democracy? Politics and institutions in Italy’, Government and Opposition 44(1): 42–67.Google Scholar
Camatarri, S. and Segatti, P. (2017), ‘Le condizioni che avrebbero consentito la vittoria del “sì”’. Il Mulino. Retrieved 4 December 2017 from www.rivistailmulino.it/news/newsitem/index/Item/News:NEWS_ITEM:3764 Google Scholar
Clarke, H., Kornberg, A. and Stewart, M.C. (2004), ‘Referendum voting as political choice: the case of Quebec’, British Journal of Political Science 34(2): 345–355.Google Scholar
Clarke, H.D., Sanders, D., Stewart, M.C. and Whiteley, P. (2013), ‘Leader heuristics, political knowledge and voting in Britain’s AV referendum’, Electoral Studies 32(2): 224–235.Google Scholar
Colombo, C. (2016), ‘Justification and citizen competence in direct democracy: a multilevel analysis’, British Journal of Political Science, (first published online, 10 May).Google Scholar
Colombo, C., de Angelis, A. and Morisi, D. (2016), ‘New survey evidence: Renzi’s support is damaging the chances of a Yes vote in Italy’s referendum’, EUROPP – European Politics and Policy. Retrieved 26 January 2017 from http://bit.ly/2fJmbaU Google Scholar
Colombo, C., De Angelis, A., Kriesi, H. and Morisi, D. (2017), ‘Demanding choices or easy shortcuts? A study on the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum’. Paper presented at the ITANES Workshop ‘Referendum Costituzionale 2016: Elettori, Partiti e Media nella Seconda Repubblica’, February 9–10, Rome.Google Scholar
Colombo, C. and Kriesi, H. (2016), ‘Party, policy–or both? Partisan-biased processing of policy arguments in direct democracy’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27(3): 1–19.Google Scholar
Conti, N., Olmastroni, F. and Passarelli, G. (2017), ‘The Italian Constitutional Referendum. A vote against what?’. Paper presented at the ITANES Workshop ‘Referendum Costituzionale 2016: Elettori, Partiti e Media nella Seconda Repubblica’, February 9–10, Rome.Google Scholar
De Angelis, A., Morisi, D. and Colombo, C. (2017), ‘Taking cues from the government: Heuristic versus Systematic Processing in a Consitutional Referendum’. Paper presented at the European Political Science Association’s 2017 Conference, June 22–24, Milan.Google Scholar
de Vreese, C.H. (2006), ‘Political parties in dire straits? Consequences of national referendums for political parties’, Party Politics 12(5): 581–598.Google Scholar
Fasano, L.M., Natale, P. and Diodati, N.M. (2017), ‘PD: un partito in cerca di identità e collocazione politica. Implicazioni strategiche per la competizione partitica’. Paper presented at the ITANES Workshop ‘Referendum Costituzionale 2016: Elettori, Partiti e Media nella Seconda Repubblica’, February 9–10, Rome.Google Scholar
Ferrera, M. and Gualmini, E. (2004), Rescued by Europe? Social and Labor Market Reforms in Italy From Maastricht to Berlusconi, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M.P. (1981), Retrospective Voting in American National Elections, New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gallagher, M. (1995), ‘Conclusions’, in M. Gallagher and P.V. Uleri (eds), The Referendum Experience in Europe, London: Macmillan, pp. 226–252.Google Scholar
Gallagher, M. (2015), ‘Elezioni e referendum’, in D. Caramani (ed.), Manuale di Scienza Politica – Handbook of Political Science, Milano: Egea, pp. 261–297.Google Scholar
Hensher, D.A., Rose, J.M. and Greene, W.H. (2005), Applied choice Analysis. A Primer, Cambridge: Cambridge university Press.Google Scholar
Hobolt, S.B. (2006), ‘How parties affect vote choice in European integration referendums’, Party Politics 12(5): 623–647.Google Scholar
Hobolt, S.B. (2007), ‘Taking cues on Europe? Voter competence and party endorsements in referendums on European integration’, European Journal of Political Research 46: 151–182.Google Scholar
Hobolt, S.B. (2009), Europe in Question: Referendums on European Integration, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hobolt, S.B. (2016), ‘The Brexit vote: a divided nation, a divided continent’, Journal of European Public Policy 23(9): 1259–1277.Google Scholar
Keating, M. and Wilson, A. (2010), ‘Federalism and decentralisation in Italy.’ PSA Conference Paper. Retrieved 2 March 2017 from http://scienzepolitiche.unical.it Google Scholar
Kahneman, D. (2011), Thinking, Fast and Slow, London: Allen Lane.Google Scholar
Kriesi, H. (2005), Direct Democratic Choice: The Swiss Experience, Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
LeDuc, L. (2003), The Politics of Direct Democracy: Referendums in Global Perspective, Peterborough: Broadview Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Stegmaier, M. (2007), ‘Economic models of voting’, in R.J. Dalton and H.-D. Klingemann (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Retrieved 4 December 2017 from http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199270125-e-027.Google Scholar
Lijphart, A. (2012), Patterns of Democracy. Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries, 2nd edn, New Haven & London: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lodge, M. and Taber, C.S. (2013), The Rationalizing Voter, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Luce, R.D. (1959), Choice Behavior. A Theoretical Analysis, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. (1994), ‘Shortcuts versus encyclopedias: information and voting behavior in California insurance reform elections’, American Political Science Review 88(1): 63–76.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. and McCubbins, M.D. (1998), The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need To Know?, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lupia, A., McCubbins, M. and Popkin, S. (2000), Elements of Reason: Cognition, Choice, and the Bounds of Rationality, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lupia, A. and Matsusaka, J.G. (2004), ‘Direct democracy: new approaches to old questions’, Annual Review of Political Science 7: 463–482.Google Scholar
Manski, C.F. (1977), ‘The structure of random utility models’, Theory and Decisions 8: 229–254.Google Scholar
McFadden, D. (1978), ‘Modelling the choice of residential location’, in K. Anders, L. Lundqvist, F. Snickars and J.W. Weibull (eds), Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, Amsterdam: North-Holland, pp. 75–96.Google Scholar
Neijens, P. and van Praag, P. (2006), ‘The dynamics of opinion formation in local popular referendums: why the Dutch always say no’, International Journal of Public Opinion Research 18(4): 445–462.Google Scholar
Qvortrup, M. (2005), A Comparative Study of Referendums: Government by the People, Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Reif, K. and Schmitt, H. (1980), ‘Nine second-order national elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results’, European Journal of Political Research 8(1): 3–44.Google Scholar
Sentimeter (2015), ‘Boom di consensi per Mattarella. Ma il 42% ora si aspetta un freno alle riforme’. http://sentimeter.corriere.it/page/3/ (consulted on 5 February 2017).Google Scholar
Slothuus, R. and de Vreese, C.H. (2010), ‘Political parties, motivated reasoning, and issue framing effects’, The Journal of Politics 72: 630–645.Google Scholar
Steenbergen, M.R. (2008), ‘Discrete choice models for political analysis’. Advanced Political Methodology Lecture Notes/Skript. Retrieved 4 December 2017 from https://politique.cuso.ch/fileadmin/politique/document/Steenbergen-2008.pdf Google Scholar
Stokes, D.E. (1963), ‘Spatial models of party competition’, American Political Science Review 57(2): 368–377.Google Scholar
Taber, C.S. and Young, E. (2013), ‘Political information processing’, in L. Huddy, D.O. Sears and J.S. Levy (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd edn, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thurner, P.W. and Eymann, A. (2000), ‘Policy-specific alienation and indifference in the calculus of voting: a simultaneous model of party choice and abstention’, Public Choice 102: 51–77.Google Scholar
Train, K.E. (2007), Discrete Choice Models with Simulation, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, G. (2002), Veto Players: Foundations of Institutional Analysis, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, G. (2017), ‘Compromesso Astorico: the role of the Senate after the Italian constitutional reform’, Italian Political Science Review 47(1): 87–104.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Negri and Rebessi Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CM0BMK
Link