Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T11:52:34.315Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Strategic voting revisited: the case of the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 June 2021

Chung-li Wu Open the ORCID record for Chung-li Wu [Opens in a new window] ,
Alex Min-Wei Lin  and
Chingching Chang
Chung-li Wu*
Affiliation:
Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Taipei11529, Taiwan
Alex Min-Wei Lin
Affiliation:
Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University, 64 ZhiNan Road, Section 2, Taipei11605, Taiwan
Chingching Chang
Affiliation:
The Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei11529, Taiwan Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University, Taipei11605, Taiwan
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: polclw@gate.sinica.edu.tw
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In this study, we examine whether strategic voting – in which a voter seeks to maximize the expected payoff from casting a ballot – occurred among late voters in the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election. This multi-candidate mayoral contest was noteworthy because ballot-counting started before all the votes had been cast, with preliminary results being leaked to the media. Theoretically, having access to real-time updates of voting figures could have influenced the decision of voters who were still in line waiting to cast their ballots. Analysis and reconstruction of aggregate polling data, however, demonstrate that there was very little (if any) strategic voting among these late voters on election day, even if they had information that might have induced them to vote strategically.

Keywords

Rational choicesincere votingstrategic votingutility maximizer
Type
Research Article
Information
Japanese Journal of Political Science , Volume 22 , Issue 3 , September 2021 , pp. 175 - 191
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, WC (2005) Election Night News and Voter Turnout: Solving the Projection Puzzle. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Blais, A and Degan, A (2019) The study of strategic voting. In Congleton, RD, Grofman, BN and Voigt, S (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice Volume 1. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 292–309.Google Scholar
Brennan, G and Lomasky, L (1993) Democracy and Decision: The Pure Theory of Electoral Preference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, GW (1997) Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delli Carpini, MX (1984) Scooping the voters? The consequences of the networks’ early call of the 1980 presidential race. Journal of Politics 46, 866–885.Google Scholar
Downs, A (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Gschwend, T and Meffert, MF (2017) Strategic voting. In Arzheimer, K, Evans, J and Lewis-Beck, MS (eds), The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour Volume 1. London: Sage, pp. 339–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamlin, A and Jennings, C (2011) Expressive political behaviour: foundations, scope and implications. British Journal of Political Science 41, 645–670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsieh, JF-S, Niou, EMS and Paolino, P (1997) Strategic voting in the 1994 Taipei City mayoral election. Electoral Studies 16, 153–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, T-T (2018) Long queues on election day elicit complaints from voters. Taiwan News, November 24. Available at https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3582393Google Scholar
Kawai, K and Watanabe, Y (2011) Inferring strategic voting. American Economic Review 103, 624–662.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lang, K and Lang, GE (1968) Voting and Nonvoting: Implications of Broadcasting Returns Before Polls are Closed. Waltham, MA: Blaisdell.Google Scholar
Liao, G (2018) Opponent of Taipei mayor elect files lawsuit to challenge election results. Taiwan News, November 25. Available at https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3582890Google Scholar
Liu, S-I, Hsiao, P-W, Liang, P-C and Chiang, Y-C (2019) Court rejects final appeal to annul Taipei mayoral election results. Focus Taiwan, December 17. Available at https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/201912170017Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, HA and Crespi, I (1970) Polls, Television, and the New Politics. Scranton, PA: Chandler House Press.Google Scholar
Morton, RB, Muller, D, Page, L and Torgler, B (2015) Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: evidence from a natural experiment. European Economic Review 77, 65–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riker, WH and Ordeshook, PC (1968) A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review 62, 25–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robson, K and Pevalin, D (2016) Multilevel Modeling in Plain Language. Los Angeles: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schuessler, AA (2000) A Logic of Expressive Choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Shepsle, KA and Bonchek, MS (1997) Analyzing Politics: Rationality, Behavior, and Institutions. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Spenkuch, JL (2018) Expressive vs. strategic voters: an empirical assessment. Journal of Public Economics 165, 73–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stewart, C III and Ansolabehere, S (2015) Waiting to vote. Election Law Journal 14, 47–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sudman, S (1986) Do exit polls influence voting behavior? Public Opinion Quarterly 50, 331–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Traugott, MW (1992) The impact of media polls on the public. In Mann, TE and Orren, GR (eds), Media Polls in American Politics. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, pp. 125–149.Google Scholar
Wang, Y-Y, Shih, H-C and Huang, F (2018) KMT's Ting seeks vote recount in Taipei mayoral election. Focus Taiwan, November 25. Available at http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201811250013.aspx.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Wu et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/JYKQLH
Link