Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T15:16:51.208Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Dynamics of Price Transmission in the Presence of a Major Food Safety Shock: Impact of H5N1 Avian Influenza on the Turkish Poultry Sector

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2015

Sayed H. Saghaian
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY
Gökhan Özertan
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Boǧaziçi University, Turkey
Aslıhan D. Spaulding
Affiliation:
Department of Agriculture, Illinois State University, Normal, IL

Abstract

This article addresses the dynamic impact of the 2005 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak on the Turkish poultry sector. Contemporary time-series analyses with historical decomposition graphs are used to address differences in monthly price adjustments between market levels along the Turkish poultry supply channel. The empirical results show that price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to both speed and magnitude along the marketing channel. Results also reveal a differential impact of the exogenous shock on producers and retailers. The findings have critical efficiency and equity implications for the supply-chain participants.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Azzam, A.M., and Anderson, D.G. Assessing Competition in Meatpacking: Economic History, Theory and Evidence. Grain Inspection Packers and Stockyards Administration, USDA, Report GIPSA-RR-96-6, 1996.Google Scholar
Azzam, A.M., and Pagoulatos, E.Testing Oligopolistic and Oligopsonistic Behavior: An Application to the U.S. Meat-Packing Industry.Journal of Agricultural Economics 41(1990): 362370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakucs, L.Z., and Ferto, I.Marketing Margins and Price Transmission on the Hungarian Pork Meat Market.Agribusiness 21,2(2005):273286.Google Scholar
Beach, R., Poulos., C., and Pattanayak, S.Agricultural Household Response to Avian Influenza Prevention and Control Policies.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39,2(2007): 301311.Google Scholar
Ben-Kaabia, M., Gill, J.M., and Boshnjaku, L.Price Transmission Asymmetries in the Spanish Lamb Sector.” Paper presented at the X. Congress of European Association of Agricultural Economists, Zaragoza, Spain, 28-31 August, 2002.Google Scholar
Besd-Bir. “Kanath Bilgileri Yilhgi—2006” (Annual Report on Poultry—2006), Ankara, Turkey, 2007.Google Scholar
Bessler, D.A., and Akleman, D.G.Farm Prices, Retail Prices and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(1998):11441149.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bordo, M.D.The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts.Journal of Political Economy 88,6(1980):10881109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, S., Madison., D., Goodwin, H.L., and Clark, F. Dustan. “The Potential Effects on United States Agriculture of an Avian Influenza Outbreak.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39,2(2007):335343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chopra, A., and Bessler, D.A.Impact of BSE and FMD on Beef Industry in U.K.” Paper presented at the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, St. Louis, Missouri, April 18-19, 2005.Google Scholar
Çınar, H.KanatlıEti ve Yumurta (Poultry Meat and Eggs).” TEAE Number 9, 2007.Google Scholar
Cobanoǧlu, F., Konak., K., and Boztürk, M.Türkiye Etlik Piliç Sektörünün Mevcut Durumu ve Dünya Genelinde Gelişmeler (Current Situation of Turkish Broiler Subsector and Improvements in the World)Akdeniz Üniversitesi Ziraat Dergisi 16,2(2003): 127133.Google Scholar
De Jonge, J., Frewer., L., van Trijp, H., Renes, R.J., de Wit, W., and Timmers, J.Monitoring Consumer Confidence in Food Safety: An Explanatory Study.British Food Journal 10 11(2004):837849.Google Scholar
Djunaidi, H., and Djunaidi, C.M.The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39,2(2007):313323.Google Scholar
Enders, W. Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1995.Google Scholar
Enders, W., and Granger, C.W.J.Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates.Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16(1998):304311.Google Scholar
E-Views. User Guide Version 5 for Windows and the Macintosh. Quantitative Micro Software: Irvine, CA, 2004.Google Scholar
Engle, R.E., and Granger, C.W.J.Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing.Econometrica 55(1987):251276.Google Scholar
European Union (EU). Avian Influenza Preparedness and Response Project. Internet site: http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/fiche_projet/document/Turkey%202006_17966%20Avian%20influenza%20project%20fiche.pdf (2006), [Accessed April 1, 2007].Google Scholar
Executive Guide to World Poultry Trends 2003/04. Internet site: http://www.wattnet.com/pin/homea.cfm?pg=1, [Accessed November 17, 2006].Google Scholar
Fackler, J.F., and McMillin, W.D.Evaluating Monetary Policy Options.Southern Economic Journal 68,4(2002):794810.Google Scholar
FAO. Symposium Summary: Market and Trade Dimensions of Avian Influenza. Rome, Italy, November 14, 2006.Google Scholar
Gardner, B.L.The Farm-Retail Spread in a Competitive Food Industry.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 57(1975):399409.Google Scholar
Goodwin, B.K., and Harper, D.C.Price Transmission, Threshold Behavior, and Asymmetric Adjustment in the U.S. Pork Sector.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 32(2000): 543553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodwin, B.K., and Holt, M.T.Price Transmission and Asymmetric Adjustment in the U.S. Beef Sector.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(1999):630637.Google Scholar
Hahn, W.F. Beef and Pork Values and Price Spreads Explained. ERS-USDA, 2004.Google Scholar
Heien, D.M.Markup Pricing in a Dynamic Model of the Food Industry.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1980):1018.Google Scholar
Hicks, J. The Crisis in Keynesian Economics. New York: Basic Books, 1974.Google Scholar
Holloway, G.J.The Farm-Retail Price Spread in an Imperfectly Competitive Food Industry.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73(1991):979989.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyde, C.E., and Perloff, J.M.Multimarket Market Power Estimation: The Australian Retail Meat Sector.” Paper presented at the 41st Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Gold Coast, January 1997.Google Scholar
Johansen, S., and Juselius, K.Testing Structural Hypothesis in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and UIP for the UK.Journal of Econometrics 53(1992):211244.Google Scholar
Jumah, A.The Long Run Market Power and Retail Pricing.Empirical Economics 29(2004): 605620.Google Scholar
Karp, L.S., and Perloff, J.M.A Dynamic Model of Oligopoly in the Coffee Export Market.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75(1993):448457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lloyd, T., McCorriston., S., Morgan., W., and Rayner, T.Food Scares, Market Power and Relative Price Adjustment in the UK.” Discussion Paper No. 03/18, University of Nottingham, 2003.Google Scholar
Luoma, A., Luoto., J., and Taipale, M.Threshold Cointegration and Asymmetric Price Transmission in Finnish Beef and Pork Markets.” Pellervo Economic Research Institute working paper No. 70, November 2004.Google Scholar
MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A.A., and Michelis, L.Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration.Journal of Applied Econometrics 14,5(1999):563577.Google Scholar
Mathews, K.H. Jr., Hahn, W.F., Nelson, K.E., Duewer, L.A., and Gustafson, R.A. U. S. Beef Industry: Cattle Cycles, Price Spreads, and Packer Concentration. TB-1874, ERS-USDA, 1999.Google Scholar
McCorriston, S., Morgan., W., and Rayner, T.Processing Technology, Market Power and Price Transmission.Journal of Agricultural Economics 49(1998):185201.Google Scholar
Meyer, J., and Cramon-Taubadel, S. von. “Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey.Journal of Agricultural Economics 55,3(2004):581611.Google Scholar
Miles, S., and Frewer, L.J.Investigating Specific Concerns About Different Food Hazards.Food Quality and Preference 12(2001):4761.Google Scholar
Miller, J.D., and Hayenga, M.L.Price Cycles and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U.S. Pork Market.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 83(2001):551561.Google Scholar
Okun, A.Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs.Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 2(1975):351390.Google Scholar
Paarlberg, P.L., Seitzinger, A.H., and Lee, J.G.Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the U.S.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 39,2(2007):325333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pelzman, S.Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall.Journal of Political Economy 108,3(2000):446502.Google Scholar
RATS. User's Guide, Version 6. Estima, 2004.Google Scholar
Saghaian, S.H.Beef Safety Shocks and Dynamics of Vertical Price Adjustment: The Case of BSE Discovery in the U.S. Beef Sector.Agribusiness: An International Journal 23,3(2007):333348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saghaian, S.H., Hasan, M.F., and Reed, M.R.Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in Four Asian Economies. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 34,1(2002):95109.Google Scholar
Saghaian, S.H., Maynard., L., and Reed, M.R.The Effect of E. Coli 0157:H7, FMD and BSE on Japanese Retail Beef Prices: A Historical Decomposition.Agribusiness: An International Journal 23,1(2007):131147.Google Scholar
Sanjuan, A.I., and Dawson, P.J.Price Transmission, BSE and Structure Breaks in the UK Meat Sector.European Review of Agricultural Economics 30,2(2003): 155172.Google Scholar
Sarnıç, M. “Kus Gribi Hastalıǧının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri (The Effects of Avian Influenza on the Turkish Economy),” Internet site: http://www.ekodialog.com/Maka-leler/kusgribi_ekonomiye_etkisi.html (2006) [Accessed April 1, 2007].Google Scholar
Schmidt, M.B.The Dynamic Behavior of Wages and Prices: Cointegration Tests Within a Large Macroeconomic System.Southern Economic Journal 67(2000):123138.Google Scholar
Smith, D., and Riethmuller, P.Consumer Concerns About Food Safety in Australia and Japan.British Food Journal 11(2000):838855.Google Scholar
Spirtes, P., Glymour., C., and Scheines, R. Causation, Prediction, and Search. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2000.Google Scholar
Spirtes, P., Scheines., R., Meek., C., Richardson., T., Glymour., C., Boomsam., A., and Hoijtink, H. TETRAD II-Version 3.1 Tools for Causal Modeling. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Mellon University, 1999.Google Scholar
SPO (State Planning Organization). “Dokuzuncu Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı, Hayvancılık Özel ìhtisas Komisyonu Raponi” (The Ninth Five Year Development Plan, Specialized Commission Report for Animal Husbandry) 2007. Internet site: http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/hayvanci/oik670.pdf (Accessed March 21, 2007).Google Scholar
Tiffin, R., and Dawson, P.J.Structural Breaks, Cointegration and the Farm Retail Price Spread for Lamb.Applied Economics 32(2000): 12811286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verbeke, W.Beliefs, Attitude and Behavior Towards Fresh Meat Revisited After the Belgian Dioxin Crisis.Food Quality and Preference 12(2001):489498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Cramon-Taubadel, S.Estimating Asymmetric Price Transmission With the Error Correction Representation: An Application to the German Pork Market.European Review of Agricultural Economics 25(1998):118.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO). “Avian Influenza Fact Sheet,” Intern site: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en2006 (Accessed April 2007).Google Scholar
World Bank. Turkey: Avian Influenza and Human Pandemic Preparedness and Response. Report Number: 35720-TR.2006.Google Scholar
Yalçın, C.Market Impacts of HPAI Outbreaks: A Rapid Appraisal Process—Turkey.” Paper presented at FAO's symposium on the Market and Trade Dimension of Avian Influenza, Rome, 2006a.Google Scholar
Zachariasse, L.C., and Bunte, F.H.J.How Are Farmers Faring in the Changing Balance Dimensions of the Food Economy.” Paper presented at the OECD-Conference on Changing Dimensions of the Food Economy: Exploring the Policy Issues, Den Haag, February 6-7 2003.Google Scholar