Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T10:22:14.842Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Application of Recursive Partitioning to Agricultural Credit Scoring

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

Michael P. Novak
Affiliation:
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, Washington, DC
Eddy LaDue
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

Abstract

Recursive Partitioning Algorithm (RPA) is introduced as a technique for credit scoring analysis, which allows direct incorporation of misclassification costs. This study corroborates nonagricultural credit studies, which indicate that RPA outperforms logistic regression based on within-sample observations. However, validation based on more appropriate out-of-sample observations indicates that logistic regression is superior under some conditions. Incorporation of misclassification costs can influence the creditworthiness decision.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aleott, K.W.An Agricultural Loan Rating System.The Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, February 1985.Google Scholar
Betubiza, E. and Leatham, D.J.. “A Review of Agricultural Credit Assessment Research and Annotated Bibliography.” Texas Experiment Station, Texas A&M University System, College Station, TX, June 1990.Google Scholar
Breiman, L., Friedman, J.H., Olshen, R.A., and Stone, C.J.. Classification and Regression Trees. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth International Group, 1984.Google Scholar
Carson, R., Hanemann, M., and Steinberg, D., “A Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation Estimate of the Value of Kenai King Salmon.The Journal of Behavior Economics, 19(1990):5368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dietrich, J.R. and Kaplan, R.S.. “Empirical Analysis of the Commercial Loan Classification Decision.The Accounting Review 57(1982): 1838.Google Scholar
Dunn, D.J. and Frey, T.L.. “Discriminant Analysis of Loans for Cash Grain Farms.Agricultural Finance Review 36(1976):6066.Google Scholar
Farm Financial Standard Council. Financial Guidelines for Agricultural Producers: Recommendations of the Farm Financial Standards Council, (Revised) 1995.Google Scholar
Friedman, J.H.A Recursive Partitioning Decision Rule for Nonparametric Classification.” IEEE Transactions on Computers, April (1977):404409.Google Scholar
Frydman, H., Altman, E.I., and Kao, D.. “Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress.” The Journal of Finance 40 (1985):269291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grubb, T.G. and King, R.M.. “Assessing Human Disturbance of Breeding Bald Eagles with Classification Tree Models.The Journal of Wildlife Management 55(1991):500511.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hardy, W.E. Jr. and Adrian, J.L. Jr.A Linear Programming Alternative to Discriminant Analysis in Credit Scoring.Agribusiness 1(1985):285292.3.0.CO;2-M>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hardy, W.E. Jr., Spurlock, S.R., Parrish, D.R., and Benoist, L.A.. “An Analysis of Factors that Affect the Quality of Federal Land Bank Loan.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 19(1987):175182.Google Scholar
Hardy, W.E. and Weed, J.B.. “Objective Evaluation for Agricultural Lending.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 12(1980): 159164.Google Scholar
Heckman, J.J.Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error.Econometrica 47(1979):153162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, R.B. and Hagan, A.R.. “Agricultural Loan Evaluation with Discriminant Analysis.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 5(1973): 5762.Google Scholar
Joy, O.M. and Tollefson, J.O.. “On the Financial Applications of Discriminant Analysis.Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 10(1975):723740.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khoju, M.R. and Barry, P.J.. “Business Performance Based Credit Scoring Models: A New Approach to Credit Evaluation.” Proceedings North Central Region Project NC-207 “Regulatory Efficiency and Management Issues Affecting Rural Financial Markets” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL, October 4–5, 1993.Google Scholar
LaDue, Eddy L.Lee, Warren F., Hanson, Steven D., and Kohl, David. “Credit Evaluation Procedures at Agricultural Banks in the Northeast and Eastern Cornbelt.” Agricultural Economics Resources 92-3, Cornell University, Department of Agricultural Economics, February 1992.Google Scholar
Lufburrow, J., Barry, P.J., and Dixon, B.L.. “Credit Scoring for Farm Loan Pricing.Agricultural Finance Review 44(1984):814.Google Scholar
Marais, M.L., Patell, J.M., and Walfson, M.A.. “The Experimental Design of Classification Models: An Application of Recursive Partitioning and Bootstrapping to Commercial Bank Loan Classifications.Journal of Accounting Research Supplement 22(1984):87114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddala, G.S.Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge University Press, 1983.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madalla, G.S.Econometric Issues in the Empirical Analysis of Thrift Institutions' Insolvency and Failure.Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Invited Research Working Paper 56, October 1986.Google Scholar
McFadden, D.A Comment on Discriminate Analysis versus LOGIT Analysis.Annuals of Economics and Social Measurement 5(1976):511523.Google Scholar
Miller, L.H., Barry, P., DeVuyst, C., Lins, D.A., and Sherrick, B.J.. “Farmer Mac Credit Risk and Capital Adequacy.Agricultural Finance Review 54(1994):6679.Google Scholar
Miller, L.H. and LaDue, E.L.. “Credit Assessment Models for Farm Borrowers: A Logit Analysis.Agricultural Finance Review 49(1989): 2236.Google Scholar
Mortensen, T.D., Watt, L., and Leistritz, E.L.. “Predicting Probability of Loan Default.Agricultural Finance Review 48(1988):6076.Google Scholar
Novak, M.P. and LaDue, E.L.. “An Analysis of Multiperiod Agricultural Credit Evaluation Models for New York Dairy Farms.Agricultural Finance Review 54(1994):4757.Google Scholar
Novak, M.P. and LaDue, E.L.. “Stabilizing and Extending, Qualitative and Quantitative Measure in Multiperiod Agricultural Credit Evaluation Model.Agricultural Finance Review 57(1997):3952.Google Scholar
Oilman, A.W.Aggregate Loan Quality Assessment in the Search for Related Credit-Scoring Model.Agricultural Finance Review 54(1994):94107.Google Scholar
Smith, S.F., Knoblauch, W.A., and Putnam, L.D.. “Dairy Farm Management Business Summary, New York State, 1993.Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, September 1994. R.B. 94-07.Google Scholar
Splett, N.S., Barry, P.J., Dixon, B.L., and Ellinger, P.N.. “A Joint Experience and Statistical Approach to Credit Scoring.Agricultural Finance Review 54(1994):3954.Google Scholar
Srinivansan, V., and Kim, Y.H.. “Credit Granting: A Comparative Analysis of Classification Procedures.Journal of Finance 42(1987):665681.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steinberg, D. and Colla, P.. CART Tree-structured Non-Parametric Data Analysis. San Diego, CA: Salford Systems, 1995.Google Scholar
Tronstad, R. and Gum, R.. “Cow Culling Decisions Adapted for Management with CART.American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76(1994):237249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turvey, C.G.Credit Scoring for Agricultural Loans: A Review with Application.Agricultural Finance Review 51(1991):4354.Google Scholar
Turvey, C.G. and Brown, R.. “Credit Scoring for Federal Lending Institutions: The Case of Canada's Farm Credit Corporations.Agricultural Finance Review 50(1990):4757.Google Scholar
Ziari, H.A., Leatham, D.J., and Turvey, Calum G.. “Application of Mathematical Programming Techniques in Credit Scoring of Agricultural Loans.Agricultural Finance Review 55(1995): 7488.Google Scholar
Zmijewski, M.E.Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models.Journal of Accounting Research Supplement 22(1994):5986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar