Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T16:28:09.973Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Rationality, Price Risk, and Response

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 April 2015

James L. Seale Jr.
Affiliation:
Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida
J. S. Shonkwiler
Affiliation:
Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida

Abstract

Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.

Type
Submitted Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1987

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Antonovitz, F., and Roe, T.. “The Value of a Rational Expectations Forecast in a Risky Market: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 66(1984):717723.Google Scholar
Bailey, K. W., and Womack, A. W.Wheat Acreage Response: A Regional Econometric Investigation.So. J. Agr. Econ., 17(1985):171180.Google Scholar
Batra, R. N., and Ullah, A.. “Competitive Firm and the Theory of Input Demand under Price Uncertainty.J. Polit. Econ., 82(1974):537548.Google Scholar
Behrman, J. R. Supply Response in Underdeveloped Agriculture: A Case Study of Four Major Annual Crops in Thailand, 1937-1963. Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co., 1968.Google Scholar
Brorsen, B. W., Chavas, J. P., Grant, W. R., and Schnake, L. D.Marketing Margins and Price Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Wheat Market.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 67(1985):521528.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Z.A Rational Expectations Model of Agricultural Supply.J. Polit. Econ., 92(1984):119.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Z.The Dynamics of Agricultural Supply: A Reconsideration.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 67(1985):204214.Google Scholar
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. Florida Agricultural Statistics: Vegetable Summary. Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service, various years.Google Scholar
Goodwin, T. H., and Sheffrin, S. M.Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market.Rev. Econ. and Statistics, 64(1982):658667.Google Scholar
Hall, B. H. ime Series Processor. Stanford: TSP International, 1983.Google Scholar
Harvey, A. C. The Econometric Analysis of Time Series. New York: Halsted Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Helmberger, P. G., and Akinyosoye, V.. “Competitive Pricing and Storage under Uncertainty with an Application to the U.S. Soybean Market.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 66(1984):119130.Google Scholar
Hurt, C. A., and Garcia, P.. “The Impact of Price Risk on Sow Farrowings, 1967-78.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 64(1982):565568.Google Scholar
Just, R. E.An Investigation of the Importance of Risk in Farmers' Decisions.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 56(1974):1425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kennan, J.Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations.Econometrica, 47(1979):14411455.Google Scholar
Lee, D. R., and Helmburger, P. G.Estimating Supply Response in the Presence of Farm Programs.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 67(1985):193203.Google Scholar
Ryan, T. J.Supply Response to Risk: The Case of U.S. Pinto Beans.Western J. Agr. Econ., 2(1977):3543.Google Scholar
Sandmo, A.On the Theory of the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty.Amer. Econ. Rev., 61(1971):6573.Google Scholar
Schmidt, P. Econometrics. New York: Marcel Dekker, Inc., 1976.Google Scholar
Sheffrin, S. M. Rational Expectations. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983.Google Scholar
Shonkwiler, J. S., and Emerson, R. D.Imports and the Supply of Winter Tomatoes: An Application of Rational Expectations.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 64(1982):634641.Google Scholar
Siuts, D. B.An Econometric Model of the Watermelon Market.J. Farm Econ., 37(1955):237251.Google Scholar
Traill, B.Risk Variables in Econometric Supply Response Models.J. Agr. Econ., 29(1978):5361.Google Scholar
United States Department of Agriculture. Agricultural Prices: Annual Summary. Crop Reporting Board, Economics and Statistics Service, various years.Google Scholar
United States Department of Commerce. Climatological Data: New York. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, various years.Google Scholar
United States Department of Commerce. Survey of Current Business. Bureau of Economic Analysis, various years.Google Scholar
Wallis, K. F.Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis.Econometrica, 48(1980):4974.Google Scholar
White, H.Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models.Econometrica, 50(1982):126.Google Scholar
Wohlgenant, M. K.Competitive Storage, Rational Expectations, and Short-Run Food Price Determination.Amer. J. Agr. Econ., 67(1985):739748.Google Scholar
Wold, H. O. A.A Case Study of Independent Versus Causal Chain Systems.Rev. Inter. Stat. Inst, 26(1958):525.Google Scholar