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Statistical Significance and Stability of the Hog Cycle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

J. Scott Shonkwiler  and
Thomas H. Spreen
J. Scott Shonkwiler
Affiliation:
Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Florida
Thomas H. Spreen
Affiliation:
Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Florida
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Abstract

Cyclical fluctuations in prices and production have long characterized the United States hog industry. Recent evidence suggests that the length of the hog cycle has changed. In order to determine whether the change in cycle length is statistically significant, the bootstrap technique is employed to derive confidence intervals for point estimates of the hog cycle. Application of the bootstrap technique to time series models is discussed and empirical results are presented. It is concluded that the hog cycle is undergoing rather complicated changes based on cycle lengths that are calculated to be statistically different from zero.

Keywords

hog markettime seriesboot-strappingcycleautoregressive modelstructural change
Type
Submitted Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 18 , Issue 2 , December 1986 , pp. 227 - 234
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1986

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