The Common Agricultural Policy increases European poultry production costs, prohibits imports, increases domestic prices, and subsidizes exports. This policy has displaced some U.S. exports. However, the net impact in the U.S. has been quite modest, even assuming poultry is homogeneous, independent of source country. Costs to U.S. producers are almost entirely offset by gains to U.S. consumers. Effects in the U.S. are even smaller when imperfect substitutability between poultry from different countries is accounted for. A retaliatory U.S. export subsidy would have more dramatic effects in U.S. markets.

The monthly and quarterly price determination processes for 31–40 and 21–25 size classes of raw-headless shrimp were examined to determine price leadership between market levels. Causal relationships were assessed using Haugh-Pierce, Sims, and Granger methods. Price models at the retail, wholesale, and exvessel market levels were estimated. Economic factors analyzed were income, prices of competing products, landings and imports of raw headless shrimp, total retail supply, beginning stocks, and marketing costs.

Monthly prices generally exhibited unidirectional causality from exvessel to retail price. Quarterly prices were determined interdependently among market levels. Price responses between market levels were found to be symmetric with beginning stocks, landings, and imports of own-size shrimp the most important determinants of price.

The effect of the farmer's choice of crop insurance was evaluated on both the farmer's and lender's performance. This was done using whole-farm, Monte Carlo simulation for Texas wheat/sorghum operations. Results indicate crop insurance would be preferred by moderately risk-averse farmers when farm firm failure became an issue or the insurance loss ratio approached one. A lender always preferred the use of crop insurance, especially when the probability of firm bankruptcy was an issue.

The purpose of this paper is to measure the extent of technical inefficiency among a sample of Illinois grain farms using the corrected ordinary least squares method. Instead of assuming a Cobb-Douglas production function, a linear form of the ray-homothetic is used. The results show a significant amount of technical inefficiency among all the farms in the sample, but with large farms being less technically inefficient than small farms.

Using data from a survey of farm operators in two Virginia counties, the authors analyze farmers' soil conservation decisions. Results indicate that financial factors, including income and debt, are the most important influences on the sample farmers' use of conservation practices. Additional factors such as perception of erosion, education level, off-farm employment, and tenancy also influence conservation expenditures. Factors influencing conservation tillage acreage differ from those influencing expenditures for other conservation practices. In particular, age and race of the operator and on-farm erosion potential are significantly related to the use of conservation tillage but not other practices. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for conservation programs.

Optimal sizes, number, and locations of Tennessee livestock auction markets were identified as those which minimize the combined costs of assembling and marketing livestock for the state using a separable programming model. The model includes transportation costs, economies of size in market operation, a proxy for reductions in buyers' operating costs attributable to increasing market volumes, and livestock production density, both in and around the state. The model is sufficiently comprehensive and descriptive to be of practical use by policy makers who influence industry change. Results indicate that a reduction in market numbers would lower combined costs.

Implicit (hedonic) producer prices for fiber strength uniformity were estimated for the southwest U.S. cotton market using seemingly unrelated regression and market sales data from 1983/84 and 1984/85. Fiber strength and length uniformity had significant effects on the price of cotton, but price was less responsive to both attributes than anticipated. Producer prices were most responsive to fiber length and micronaire and least responsive to color and strength. The market at the producer level appears to be making effective price adjustments with respect to factors such as fiber color, trash content, micronaire, fiber length, and location, but strength and length uniformity premiums and discounts are smaller than those paid by end users.

The U.S. pork sector is modeled to simulate the effects of alternative import levels on prices, production, consumption, farm receipts, and consumer expenditures. Over the 1983–1985 period, producers annually received $600 million less due to increasing imports than if imports had remained at the 1979–1982 average. Farm prices and slaughter were lower by $2.21 per hundredweight and 1.1 million head annually, respectively. Four simulations reflecting alternative import paths over the period 1986–1992 were examined. With lower imports (relative to current levels), production and farm prices rise significantly in the long run; consumers purchase less and pay more.

An econometric model of cotton acreage response was estimated for four distinct production regions in the United States. This work builds on previous work in the area of supply response under government farm programs and provides up-to-date regionalized estimates of own-price elasticity of cotton acreage supply. The own-price variable used in this study is a weighted combination of expected market price and government policy variables. Results indicate regional similarity in response to own price but differences with respect to the prices of alternative enterprises. Differences in regional response to paid diversion are also indicated.

When obtaining nitrogen (N), phosphate (P) and potash (K), purchasing decisions concerning the quantity and the form of each plant nutrient must be made. Logit models are estimated for the choice-of-form decision by considering those variables influencing the probability that plant nutrients will be purchased in Tennessee as part of a mixed fertilizer or as direct application materials. Parameter and elasticity estimates can be used by fertilizer manufacturers and distributors to anticipate changes in the composition of demand for plant nutrients in Tennessee.

Naive and adaptive schemes have been used as proxies for price expectations in previous studies of supply response. Those studies contain mixed formulas of futures, support, and lagged prices as alternative formulations for price expectations. This study uses a conditional expected price which combines both market and support prices into one price expectations measure. It defines the total effect of available information on supply response. The results indicate the potential usefulness of formulating expected prices as conditional price expectations in supply response analysis, with support prices being the conditional set. Under the provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill, significant reductions in corn and soybean acreages are in prospect for 1987-90.

Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.

This paper describes computer-assisted instruction for financial management which can be used to supplement an undergraduate course or to update training of persons in agribusiness. It is used to review principles of financial management, to illustrate analytical techniques, and to provide practice in the use of financial concepts and techniques. The material covered is similar to that found in traditional textbooks. Student evaluations of the software were fairly positive, but teaching effectiveness needs to be measured.

This study evaluates the economic survivability of rice farms in the Delta area of Mississippi. A general whole-farm simulation model, FLIPSIM V, is used to simulate the operations of representative rice farms over a 10-year period. Although farm size did not change for any of the representative farms considered, the financial structure of these farms changed considerably. Crop mix was found to cause significant differences in the economic growth and financial viability of rice farms in the region.

Financial conditions existing in agriculture are placing severe pressure on lenders as well as borrowers. Data from both good and foreclosed Federal Land Bank loans were analyzed to determine the most important characteristics leading to the failure of loans. The analysis was completed by comparing means through t-tests and the development of a discriminant model. The ratio of total debt service to total income, the debt to asset ratio, the ratio of total loan amount to appraised value, and the ratio of acres in security to acres owned were determined to be the most important discriminating variables.

Consumer behavior with respect to purchase regularity, satisfaction, origin, and willingness to pay for selected local versus non-Tennessee grown fresh produce is examined. Except for origin, consumer behavior with respect to the above is affected by income, household size and age distribution, race, age of respondent, college education, and occupation. The pattern of significant variables changed by commodity. Tomatoes, followed by peaches, had the greatest local market potential. Local promotion of other products may be more difficult. Results suggested consumers have no strong preferences for or against locally grown fresh produce. The prices of locally grown commodities in Knoxville should be less than or equal to those of comparable quality non-Tennessee commodities.

This paper discusses the role of agricultural economics research within the land-grant university system. Fundamental differences between research in the biological sciences and the social sciences are delineated. Implications of these differences for experiment station research programs are discussed. Recommendations are made which have potential for enhancing the role of agricultural economics within colleges of agriculture.