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Changes of grain production potential in farming–pastoral ecotone: a case study in West Jilin, China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 April 2018

Li Fei ,
Zhang Shuwen ,
Zhang Yijing ,
Yang Haijuan  and
Yang Jiuchun
Li Fei*
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
Zhang Shuwen
Affiliation:
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130102, China
Zhang Yijing
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
Yang Haijuan
Affiliation:
Collage of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
Yang Jiuchun
Affiliation:
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130102, China
*
Author for correspondence: Li Fei, E-mail: lifei@nwu.edu.cn
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Abstract

Grain production potential is mainly influenced by agroclimate and land use. In the present study, substantial regional differences associated with the impact of climate change were found (i.e. the degree of climate-related impacts varied among regions). Currently, there is an urgent need for effective responses and adaptations to different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes. Therefore, the aim was to examine ecotones and explore trends and influential factors associated with grain production potential change. Using the Global Agro-ecological Zone model, the grain production potential of West Jilin, China under different conditions during various years were estimated, considering meteorological, soil, topographic, land use and other data. The results showed that total grain production potential (TGrPP) of West Jilin increased continuously from 1976 to 2013. The average annual increase in TGrPP was higher in period 1 (1976–2000) than period 2 (2000–2013). In period 1, grain production potential was influenced mainly by irrigation percentage changes, followed by land use change. The conversion of grassland to farmland was the most important land use change factor that was associated with increased grain production potential. Climate change affected grain production potential in period 1 negatively. In period 2, climate change had the largest impact and land use imparted the smallest effect on grain production potential. Finally, the decrease in irrigation percentage resulted in reduced grain production potential.

Keywords

Grain production potentialland use changeclimate changeirrigation percentage changeGAEZ
Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 156 , Issue 2 , March 2018 , pp. 151 - 161
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018 

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