Hostname: page-component-7dd5485656-wlg5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-10-31T09:47:39.110Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Predicting the flowering date of Portuguese grapevine varieties using temperature-based phenological models: a multi-site approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2018

Mafalda Reis Pereira ,
Helena Ribeiro ,
Ilda Abreu ,
José Eiras-Dias ,
Teresa Mota  and
Mário Cunha
Mafalda Reis Pereira
Affiliation:
Department of Geosciences, Environment and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
Helena Ribeiro*
Affiliation:
Earth Sciences Institute, Pole of the Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
Ilda Abreu
Affiliation:
Earth Sciences Institute, Pole of the Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Biology Department, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
José Eiras-Dias
Affiliation:
Instituto Nacional de Investigação Agrária e Veterinária, I.P., Quinta da Almoinha, 2565-191 Dois Portos, Portugal
Teresa Mota
Affiliation:
Comissão de Viticultura da Região dos Vinhos Verdes, Academia do Vinho Verde e Estação Vitivinícola Amândio Galhano, Paçô, 4970-249 Arcos de Valdevez, Portugal
Mário Cunha
Affiliation:
Department of Geosciences, Environment and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science (INESC TEC), CRIIS, Rua Dr Roberto Frias 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
*
Author for correspondence: Helena Ribeiro, E-mail: helena.ribeiro@fc.up.pt
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Phenological models for predicting the grapevine flowering were tested using phenological data of 15 grape varieties collected between 1990 and 2014 in Vinhos Verdes and Lisbon Portuguese wine regions. Three models were tested: Spring Warming (Growing Degree Days – GDD model), Spring Warming modified using a triangular function – GDD triangular and UniFORC model, which considers an exponential response curve to temperature. Model estimation was performed using data on two grape varieties (Loureiro and Fernão Pires), present in both regions. Three dates were tested for the beginning of heat unit accumulation (t0 date): budburst, 1 January and 1 September. The best overall date was budburst. Furthermore, for each model parameter, an intermediate range of values common for the studied regions was estimated and further optimized to obtain one model that could be used for a diverse range of grape varieties in both wine regions. External validation was performed using an independent data set from 13 grape varieties (seven red and six white), different from the two used in the estimation step. The results showed a high coefficient of determination (R2: 0.59–0.89), low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE: 3–7 days) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD: 2–6 days) between predicted and observed values. The UniFORC model overall performed slightly better than the two GDD models, presenting higher R2 (0.75) and lower RMSE (4.55) and MAD (3.60). The developed phenological models presented good accuracy when applied to several varieties in different regions and can be used as a predictor tool of flowering date in Portugal.

Keywords

Grapevine floweringoptimization algorithmphenologysimulated annealingthermal models

Information

Type
Crops and Soils Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 156 , Issue 7 , September 2018 , pp. 865 - 876
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Bindi, M, Miglietta, F, Gozzini, B, Orlandini, S and Seghi, L (1997) A simple model for simulation of growth and development in grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). 1. Model description. Vitis 36, 67–71.Google Scholar
Buttrose, MS (1969) Vegetative growth of grape-vine varieties under controlled temperature and light intensity. Vitis 8, 280–285.Google Scholar
Caffarra, A and Eccel, E (2010) Increasing the robustness of phenological models for Vitis vinifera cv. Chardonnay. International Journal of Biometeorology 54, 255–267.Google Scholar
Cannell, MGR and Smith, RI (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. Journal of Applied Ecology 20, 951–963.Google Scholar
Carbonneau, A, Riou, C, Guyon, D, Riom, J and Schneider, C (1992) Agrometeorologie de la Vigne em France. Luxembourg City, Luxembourg: Office des Publication Officielles des Communautés Européennes.Google Scholar
Chaos, WS, Foley, ME, Horvath, DP and Anderson, JV (2007) Signals regulating dormancy in vegetative buds. International Journal of Plant Developmental Biology 1, 49–56.Google Scholar
Chmielewski, FM, Heider, S, Moryson, S and Bruns, E (2013) International phenological observation networks: concept of IPG and GPM. In Schwartz, MD (ed.), Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer Netherlands, pp. 137–153.Google Scholar
Chuine, I (2000) A unified model for budburst of trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology 207, 337–347.Google Scholar
Chuine, I, Cour, P and Rousseau, DD (1999) Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling. Plant, Cell and Environment 22, 1–13.Google Scholar
Chuine, I, Kramer, K and Hänninen, H (2003) Plant development models. In Schwartz, MD (ed.), Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer Netherlands, pp. 217–235.Google Scholar
Cola, G, Failla, O, Maghradze, D, Megrelidze, L and Mariani, L (2017) Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia. International Journal of Biometeorology 61, 761–773.Google Scholar
Cunha, M and Richter, C (2016) The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region. Climatic Change 138, 239–251.Google Scholar
Cunha, M, Marçal, ARS and Rodrigues, A (2010) A comparative study of satellite and ground-based vineyard phenology. In Manakos, I and Kalaitzidis, C (eds), Imagin[e,g] Europe, Proceedings of the 29th Symposium of the European Association of Remote Sensing Laboratories, Chania, Greece. Amsterdam, the Netherlands: IOS Press, pp. 68–77.Google Scholar
Cunha, M, Ribeiro, H, Costa, P and Abreu, I (2015) A comparative study of vineyard phenology and pollen metrics extracted from airborne pollen time series. Aerobiologia 31, 45–56.Google Scholar
Duchene, E and Schneider, C (2005) Grapevine and climatic changes: a glance at the situation in Alsace. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 25, 93–99.Google Scholar
Fraga, H, Santos, JA, Moutinho-Pereira, J, Carlos, C, Silvestre, J, Eiras-Dias, J, Mota, T and Malheiro, AC (2016) Statistical modelling of grapevine phenology in Portuguese wine regions: observed trends and climate change projections. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 154, 795–811.Google Scholar
Gladstones, JS (1992) Viticulture and Environment: A Study of the Effects of Environment on Grapegrowing and Wine Qualities, with Emphasis on Present and Future Areas for Growing Winegrapes in Australia. Adelaide, Australia: Winetitles.Google Scholar
Greer, DH and Weedon, MM (2012) Modelling photosynthetic responses to temperature of grapevine (Vitis vinifera cv. Semillon) leaves on vines grown in a hot climate. Plant, Cell and Environment 35, 1050–1064.Google Scholar
Hänninen, H (1990) Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions. Acta Forestalia Fennica 213, 1–47 article id 7660. doi: https://doi.org/10.14214/aff.7660.Google Scholar
Huglin, P (1978) Nouveau mode d’évaluation des possibilités héliothermiques d'un milieu viticole. Comptes Rendus de l'Académie d'Agriculture de France 64, 1117–1126.Google Scholar
Huglin, P and Schneider, C (1986) Biologie et Ecologie de la Vigne. Lausanne, Switzerland: Payot.Google Scholar
Hunter, AF and Lechowicz, MJ (1992) Predicting the timing of budburst in temperate trees. Journal of Applied Ecology 29, 597–604.Google Scholar
Jarvis, C, Barlow, E, Darbyshire, R, Eckard, R and Goodwin, I (2017) Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia. International Journal of Biometeorology 61, 1849–1862.Google Scholar
Jones, GV (2003) Winegrape phenology. In Schwartz, MD (ed.), Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer Netherlands, pp. 523–539.Google Scholar
Jones, GV (2006) Climate change and wine: observations, impacts and future implications. Wine Industry Journal 21, 21–26.Google Scholar
Jones, GV and Davis, RE (2000) Climate influences on grapevine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture 51, 249–261.Google Scholar
Jones, GV, White, MA, Cooper, OR and Storchmann, K (2005) Climate change and global wine quality. Climatic Change 73, 319–343.Google Scholar
Kramer, K (1994) Selecting a model to predict the onset of growth of Fagus sylvatica. Journal of Applied Ecology 31, 172–181.Google Scholar
Landsberg, JJ (1974) Apple fruit bud development and growth; analysis and an empirical model. Annals of Botany 38, 1013–1023.Google Scholar
Lopes, J, Eiras-Dias, JE, Abreu, F, Clímaco, P, Cunha, JP and Silvestre, J (2008) Thermal requirements, duration and precocity of phenological stages of grapevine cultivars of the Portuguese collection. Ciência e Técnica Vitivinícola 23, 61–71.Google Scholar
Lorenz, DH, Eichhorn, KW, Bleiholder, H, Klose, R, Meier, U and Weber, E (1995) Growth stages of the grapevine: phenological growth stages of the grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. ssp.vinifera). Codes and descriptions according to the extended BBCH scale. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research 1, 100–103.Google Scholar
Mager, P, Kępińska-Kasprzak, M, Meyer, N, Mueller, S, Stokłosa, D, Wójtowicz, W and Jaskulska, J (2014) Automatic monitoring as a tool for collection of information on fitophenological cycle. In Bubak, M, Kitowski, J and Wiatr, K (eds), eScience on Distributed Computing Infrastructure: Achievements of PLGrid Plus Domain-Specific Services and Tools. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, pp. 335–350.Google Scholar
Meier, U (2001) Growth Stages of Mono- and Dicotyledonous Plants. BBCH Monograph, 2nd Edn. Berlin, Germany: Federal Biological Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry.Google Scholar
Metropolis, N, Rosenbluth, AW, Rosenbluth, MN, Teller, AH and Teller, E (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. Journal of Chemical Physics 21, 1087–1092.Google Scholar
Murray, MB, Cannell, MGR and Smith, RI (1989) Date of budburst of 15 tree species in Britain following climatic warming. Journal of Applied Ecology 26, 693–700.Google Scholar
OIV (2009) Code des Caractères Descriptifs des Variétés et Espèces de Vitis. 2nd Edn. Paris, France: Organization Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin.Google Scholar
Olsen, JE (2010) Light and temperature sensing and signaling in induction of bud dormancy in woody plants. Plant Molecular Biology 73, 37–47.Google Scholar
Orlandini, S and Mancini, M (1999) Studio preliminare sulla microzoanazione bioclimatica condotto in un'area vitícola collinare. In Atti del Simposio Internazionale «Territorio e vino, Siena», Edizioni Cantagalli-Città del vino, Siena, 20–24 Maggio 1998, pp. 417–429.Google Scholar
Parker, AK, de Cortazar-Atauri, IG, van Leeuwen, C and Chuine, I (2011) General phenological model to characterise the timing of flowering and veraison of Vitis vinifera L. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research 17, 206–216.Google Scholar
Parker, A, de Cortazar-Atauri, IG, Chuine, I, Barbeau, G, Bois, B, Boursiquot, JM, Cahurel, JY, Claverie, M, Dufourcq, T, Geny, L, Guimberteau, G, Hofmann, RW, Jacquet, O, Lacombe, T, Monamy, C, Ojeda, H, Panigai, L, Payan, JC, Lovelle, BR, Rouchaud, E, Schneider, C, Spring, JL, Storchi, P, Tomasi, D, Trambouze, W, Trought, M and van Leeuwen, C (2013) Classification of varieties for their timing of flowering and veraison using a modelling approach: a case study for the grapevine species Vitis vinifera L. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 180, 249–264.Google Scholar
Pouget, R (1972) Considérations générales sur le rythme végétatif et la dormance des bourgeons de la vigne. Vitis 11, 198–217.Google Scholar
Riou, C (1994) The Effect of Climate on Grape Ripening: Application to the Zoning of Sugar Content in the European Community. Brussels, Belgium: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.Google Scholar
Robinson, J, Harding, J and Vouillamoz, J (2012) Wine Grapes: A Complete Guide to 1,368 Vine Varieties, Including Their Origins and Flavours. London, UK: Penguin.Google Scholar
Ruml, M and Vulić, T (2005) Importance of phenological observations and prediction in agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Sciences (Serbia) 50, 217–225.Google Scholar
Ruml, M, Nada, K, Vujadinović, M, Vukovic, A and Ivanišević, D (2016) Response of grapevine phenology to recent temperature change and variability in the wine-producing area of Sremski Karlovci, Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 154, 186–206.Google Scholar
Running, SW and Hunt, ER (1993) Generalization of a forest ecosystem process model for other biomes, BIOME-BGC, and an application for global-scale models. In Ehleringer, JR and Field, CB (eds), Scaling Physiological Processes: Leaf to Globe. New York, USA: Academic Press, Inc, pp. 141–158.Google Scholar
Sarvas, R (1974) Investigations on the annual cycle of development of forest trees. II. Autumn dormancy and winter dormancy. Communications Instituti Forestalis Fenniae 84, 1–101.Google Scholar
Tanino, KK, Kalcsits, L, Silim, S, Kendall, E and Gray, GR (2010) Temperature-driven plasticity in growth cessation and dormancy development in deciduous woody plants: a working hypothesis suggesting how molecular and cellular function is affected by temperature during dormancy induction. Plant Molecular Biology 73, 49–65.Google Scholar
van der Schoot, C and Rinne, PLH (2011) Dormancy cycling at the shoot apical meristem: transitioning between self-organization and self-arrest. Plant Science 180, 120–131.Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C, Friant, P, Chone, X, Tregoat, O, Koundouras, S and Dubourdieu, D (2004) Influence of climate, soil, and cultivar on terroir. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture 55, 207–217.Google Scholar
van Leeuwen, C, Garnier, C, Agut, C, Baculat, B, Barbeau, G, Besnard, E, Bois, B, Boursiquot, JM, Chuine, I, Dessup, T, Dufourcq, T, Garcia-Cortazar, I, Marguerit, E, Monamy, C, Koundouras, S, Payan, JC, Parker, A, Renouf, V, Rodriguez-Lovelle, B, Roby, JP, Tonietto, J and Trambouze, W (2008) Heat requirements for grapevine varieties are essential information to adapt plant material in a changing climate. In Proceedings of the 7th International Terroir Congress, Changins, Switzerland. Changins-Wädenswil: Switzerland: Agroscope, pp. 222–227.Google Scholar
Victor, KJ, Fennell, AY and Grimplet, J (2010) Proteomic analysis of shoot tissue during photoperiod induced growth cessation in V. riparia michx. Grapevines. Proteome Science 8, 1–17 article number 44. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1477-5956-8-44.Google Scholar
Williams, DW, Andris, HL, Beede, RH, Luvisi, DA, Norton, MVK and Williams, LE (1985) Validation of a model for the growth and development of the Thompson seedless grapevine. II. Phenology. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture 36, 283–289.Google Scholar
Winkler, AJ, Cook, AJ, Kliewer, WM and Lider, LA (1974) General Viticulture. Berkeley, CA, USA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Zapata, D, Salazar, M, Chaves, B, Keller, M and Hoogenboom, G (2015) Estimation of the base temperature and growth phase duration in terms of thermal time for four grapevine cultivars. International Journal of Biometeorology 59, 1771–1781.Google Scholar