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The recurrent epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

L. Billard
L. Billard*
Affiliation:
University of Waterloo
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Abstract

The recurrent epidemic model has hitherto proved mathematically intractable. It is shown here that by imposing the mild condition that the source of new susceptibles is initially of a constant size M for M sufficiently large that there is zero probability of more than M new susceptibles being added to the population in the course of the epidemic, then state probabilities for the stochastic recurrent epidemic model can be found.

Keywords

RECURRENT EPIDEMICSOLUTION METHOD FOR STATE PROBABILITIESMOMENTS
Type
Short Communications
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 11 , Issue 3 , September 1974 , pp. 568 - 571
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1974 

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References

Bailey, N. T. J. (1964) The Elements of Stochastic Processes. Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
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Severo, N. C. (1969b) Right-shift processes. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 64, 1162–1164.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed