Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T23:32:02.204Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

AFTER FERTILITY’S NADIR? ETHNIC DIFFERENTIALS IN PARITY-SPECIFIC BEHAVIOURS IN KYRGYZSTAN

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 November 2017

Thomas Spoorenberg
Thomas Spoorenberg*
Affiliation:
Population Estimates and Projections Section, United Nations Population Division, New York, USA
*
1Corresponding author. Email: thomas.spoorenberg@gmail.com
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2009 Census micro-dataset, sibling progression ratios were computed using information on the relationships and dates of birth of children under the age of 15. The results allow an analysis of the fertility increase by identifying the contribution of parity and ethnic group. It was found that the fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan has been experienced across the main ethnic groups, but their respective share in the population of the country has resulted in distinct contributions to the increase. Between 2001 and 2009, 82.4% of the fertility increase was due to an increase in the fertility of Kyrgyz women. In comparison, Uzbek and Russian women contributed 10.2% and 7.4%, respectively. By accounting for the parity component and ethnic factor, this study adds important disaggregated information, not only on family-building behaviours, but also on the social dimension, which is of prime importance for a better understanding of the demography of Central Asia. The study highlights important information on family-building behaviours, which are essential for the formulation of appropriate and more effective social policies aimed at sustaining and/or increasing fertility.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Biosocial Science , Volume 49 , Special Issue S1: Low Fertility in Developing Countries: Causes and Implications , November 2017 , pp. S62 - S73
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press, 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

#

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations.

References

Agadjanian, V., Dommaraju, P. & Nedoluzhko, L. (2013) Economic fortunes, ethnic divides, and marriage and fertility in Central Asia: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan compared. Journal of Population Research 30, 197–211.Google Scholar
Blum, A. (1987) La transition démographique dans les Républiques orientales d’URSS. Population 42, 337–358.Google Scholar
Bongaarts, J. & Sobotka, T. (2012) A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility. Population and Development Review 38, 83–120.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Burkimsher, M. (2015) Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates. Demographic Research 32, 621–656.Google Scholar
Cho, L-J., Retherford, R. D. & Choe, M. K. (1986) The Own-Children Method of Fertility Estimation. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu.Google Scholar
Dave, B. (2004) A shrinking reach of the state? Language policy and implementation in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In Jones Luong, P. (ed.) The Transformation of Central Asia: States and Societies from Soviet Rule to Independence. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY and London, pp. 120–150.Google Scholar
Feeney, G. & Yu, J. (1987) Period parity progression measures of fertility in China. Population Studies 41, 77–102.Google Scholar
Goldstein, J., Sobotka, T. & Jasilioniene, A. (2009) The end of “lowest-low” fertility? Population and Development Review 35, 663–699.Google Scholar
Guilmoto, C. Z. (2015) Mapping the diversity of gender preferences and sex imbalances in Indonesia in 2010. Population Studies 69, 299–315.Google Scholar
Hertrich, V. & Lardoux, S. (2014) Estimating age at first union in Africa. Are census and survey data comparable? Population-E 69, 357–390.Google Scholar
Hinde, A. (1998) Demographic Methods. Arnold, London.Google Scholar
Hull, T. H. & Hartanto, W. (2009) Resolving contradictions in Indonesian fertility estimates. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 45, 61–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lutz, W. (1989) Distributional Aspects of Human Fertility. Academic Press, London.Google Scholar
Minnesota Population Center (2016) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International: Version 6.4 [Machine-readable database]. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.Google Scholar
National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic (NSC), Ministry of Health [Kyrgyz Republic] & ICF International (2013) Kyrgyz Republic Demographic and Health Survey 2012. NSC, MOH and ICF International, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, and Calverton, MD, USA.Google Scholar
Nedoluzhko, L. & Agadjanian, V. (2015) Between tradition and modernity: marriage dynamics in Kyrgyzstan. Demography 52, 861–882.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (1987) Period parity progression ratios and birth intervals in England and Wales, 1941–1971: a synthetic life table analysis. Population Studies 41, 103–125.Google Scholar
Research Institute of Obstetrics and Pediatrics [Kyrgyz Republic] & Macro International Inc. (1998) Kyrgyz Republic Demographic and Health Survey, 1997. Research Institute of Obstetrics and Pediatrics. Ministry of Health of the Kyrgyz Republic and Macro International Inc., Calverton, MD, USA.Google Scholar
Sobotka, T. (2011) Fertility in Central and Eastern Europe after 1989: collapse and gradual recovery. Historical Social Research 36, 246–296.Google Scholar
Sobotka, T. & Toulemon, L. (2008) Changing family and partnership behaviour: common trends and persistent diversity across Europe. Demographic Research 19, 85–138.Google Scholar
Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Lesthaeghe, R. & Frejka, T. (2011) Postponement and recuperation in cohort fertility: new analytical and projection methods and their application. European Demographic Research Paper 2011–12, Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna.Google Scholar
Spoorenberg, T. (2010) Fertility transition in India between 1977 and 2004: analysis using parity progression ratios. Population-E 65, 315–331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spoorenberg, T. (2013) Fertility changes in Central Asia since 1980. Asian Population Studies 9, 50–77.Google Scholar
Spoorenberg, T. (2014) Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based fertility estimates in Mongolia. Population Studies 68, 375–382.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Spoorenberg, T. (2015) Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia. Asian Population Studies 11, 115–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spoorenberg, T. (in press) On the onset of fertility transition in Central Asia. Population-E 72(3).Google Scholar
UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS (2016) TransMonEE 2016 Database. URL: http://www.transmonee.org/databases.php (accessed 22nd April 2016).Google Scholar
United Nations Statistics Division (2014) Coverage of Birth and Death Registration. United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Statistics Section, New York. URL: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/CRVS/CR_coverage.htm (accessed 22nd April 2016).Google Scholar