Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T12:50:19.628Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Electoral Reform and the Costs of Personal Support in Japan

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2016

Matthew M. Carlson
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

How does the choice of electoral rules affect politicians' incentives to campaign on the basis of personalized support? This article examines to what extent the adoption of new electoral and campaign finance rules affects the incentive of politicians in Japan's Liberal Democratic Party to rely on personal support organizations called koenkai. The core of the analysis utilizes newly collected campaign finance data. The empirical analyses confirm a considerable weakening in the number of koenkai across systems as well as a decreased need for politicians to spend money in the proportional representation tier. These results highlight the importance of previous organizational legacies as well as the efforts of political actors to mitigate the effects of rule change on their election and reelection prospects.

Keywords

JapanLDPcampaign financeelectoral reformcampaignspersonal voteincumbencyrational choiceinstitutionalismmixed-member electoral systems
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 6 , Issue 2 , August 2006 , pp. 233 - 258
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Notes

I am grateful to Ikuo Kabashima, Gabriella Montinola, Steven Vogel, Ellis Krauss, Robert Pekkanen, Stephan Haggard, and three anonymous reviewers for their suggestions on earlier drafts. I also wish to acknowledge research funding from the Asian Studies Program at the University of Vermont and from the Japan Program at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.Google Scholar

1. Curtis, Gerald, Election Campaigning, Japanese Style (New York: Columbia University Press, 1971), p. 128.Google Scholar

2. See Duverger, Maurice, Political Parties, Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State (New York: John Wiley, 1954); Riker, William, “The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science,” American Political Science Review 76, no. 4 (1982): 753–766; and Cox, Gary, Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997).Google Scholar

3. See Budge, Ian, Robertson, David, and Hearl, Derek, eds., Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analysis of Post-war Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Gabel, Matthew and Huber, John D., “Putting Parties in Their Place: Inferring Party Left-Right Ideological Positions from Party Manifestos Data,” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 1 (2000): 94–103; and Laver, Michael, ed., Estimating the Policy Positions of Political Actors (London: Routledge, 2001).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4. See Carey, John and Shugart, Matthew, “Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas,” Electoral Studies 14, No. 4 1995): 417–439; and Cain, Bruce, Ferejohn, John, and Fiorina, Morris, The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1987).Google Scholar

5. Carey, and Shugart, , “Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote,” pp. 417–418.Google Scholar

6. See, for example, Shepsle, Kenneth, “Institutional Equilibrium and Equilibrium Institutions.” In Weisberg, Herbert, ed., Political Science: The Science of Politics (New York: Agathon, 1986), pp. 51–81; and Tsebelis, George, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).Google Scholar

7. See, for example, Skocpol, Theda, Protecting Soldiers and Mothers: The Political Origins of Social Policy in the United States (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1992); and Steinmo, Sven, Taxation and Democracy: Swedish, British, and American Approaches to Financing the Modern State (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1993).Google Scholar

8. Luong, Pauline, “After the Break-up: Institutional Design in Transitional States,” Comparative Political Studies 33, No. 5 2000): 563–592.Google Scholar

9. Carey, and Shugart, , “Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote,” p. 429.Google Scholar

10. See Johnson, Chalmers, Japan: Who Governs? The Rise of the Developmental State (New York: Norton, 1996); and Mizuguchi, Hiroshi, “Political Reform: Much Ado About Nothing?” Japan Quarterly 40, no. 3 (1993): 246–257.Google Scholar

11. See, for example, Rae, Douglas, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971); and Mayhew, David, Congress: The Electoral Connection (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1974).Google Scholar

12. Cain, Ferejohn, and Fiorina, , The Personal Vote, p. 9.Google Scholar

13. Miyake, Ichiro, “Candidate Evaluation and Voting Choice Under the Japanese Electoral System.” In Grofman, Bernard, Lee, Sung-Chull, Winkler, Edwin, and Woodall, Brian, eds., Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan Under the Single Nontransferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999), pp. 153–180.Google Scholar

14. Miyake, Ichiro, “Seito tohyo to kohosha kojin tohyo no baransu: Shosenkyokusei ikoki no tohyo kettei” [The balance between the party and personal vote: Determinants of the voting decision under Japan's new electoral system], Leviathan 25 (1999): 7–31.Google Scholar

15. Fukui, Haruhiro and Fukai, Shigeko, “Campaigning for the Japanese Diet.” In Grofman, , Lee, , Winkler, , and Woodall, , Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan Under the Single Nontransferable Vote, p. 127.Google Scholar

16. See, for example, Reed, Steven and Thies, Michael, “The Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan.” In Shugart, Matthew and Wattenberg, Martin, eds., Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 380–403; Hideo, Otake, “Overview.” In Hideo, Otake, ed., How Electoral Reform Boomeranged (New York: Japan Center for International Exchange, 1998), pp. vi–xxxi; Christensen, Ray, “The Effects of Electoral Reforms on Campaign Practices in Japan: Putting New Wine into Old Bottles,” Asian Survey 38, no. 10 (1998): 986–1004; and Reed, Steven, ed., Japanese Electoral Politics: Creating a New Party System (London: Routledge Curzon, 2003).Google Scholar

17. Shugart, Matthew and Wattenberg, Martin, “Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Definition and Typology.” In Shugart, and Wattenberg, , Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? p. 2.Google Scholar

18. Herron, Erik and Nishikawa, Misa, “Contamination Effects and the Number of Parties in Mixed-Superposition Electoral Systems,” Electoral Studies 20, No. 1 2001): 63–86.Google Scholar

19. See, for example, Gschwend, Thomas, Johnston, Ron, and Pat-tie, Charles, “Split-Ticket Patterns in Mixed-Member Proportional Election Systems: Estimates and Analyses of Their Spatial Variation at the German Federal Election, 1998,” British Journal of Political Science 33, No. 1 2003): 109–127; Reed, Steven, “Strategic Voting in the 1996 Japanese General Election,” Comparative Political Studies 32, no. 2 (1999): 257–270; Cox, Karen and Schoppa, Len, “Interaction Effects in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: Theory and Evidence from Germany, Japan, and Italy,” Comparative Political Studies 35, no. 9 (2002): 1027–1053; and Carlson, Matthew, “Electoral Reform and the Evolution of Informal Norms in Japan,” Asian Survey 46, no. 3 (2006).Google Scholar

20. Alternatively, because parties may rank their candidates at the same PR list positions, some candidates are selected through the use of a “best-loser” provision, which is calculated on the basis of their performance in the SMD tier by taking the number of votes the candidate receives divided by votes won by the first-place finisher.Google Scholar

21. McKean, Margaret and Scheiner, Ethan, “Japan's New Electoral System: La Plus ça Chang',” Electoral Studies 19, No. 4 2000): 447–448.Google Scholar

22. Reed, and Thies, , “The Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan,” p. 395.Google Scholar

23. Information on amounts from Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications' homepage, at www.mha.go.jp (accessed May 1, 2006).Google Scholar

24. Kerbo, Harold and McKinstry, John, Who Rules Japan? The Inner Circles of Economic and Political Power (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995), p. 98.Google Scholar

25. See, for example, Pempel, T. J., Regime Shift: Comparative Dynamics of the Japanese Political Economy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1998); and Curtis, Gerald, The Logic of Japanese Politics: Leaders, Institutions, and the Limits of Change (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999).Google Scholar

26. For two of the first studies, see, for example, Hideo, Otake, “How a Diet Member's Koenkai Adapts to Social and Political Changes.” In Hideo, , How Electoral Reform Boomeranged, pp. 1–32; and Yamada, Masahiro, “Nukaga Fukushiro: Climbing the Ladder to Influence.” In Hideo, , How Electoral Reform Boomeranged, pp. 33–58.Google Scholar

27. Krauss, Ellis and Pekkanen, Robert, “Explaining Party Adaptation to Electoral Reform: The Discreet Charm of the LDP?” Journal of Japanese Studies 30, No. 1 2004): 1–34.Google Scholar

28. Ibid., p. 28.Google Scholar

29. Luong, , “After the Break-Up,” p. 589.Google Scholar

30. For example, I concur with Krauss and Pekkanen's claims that there is a path dependence to organizational development and that politicians are likely “to adapt familiar forms to new rational purposes in the new system” (Krauss, and Pekkanen, , “Explaining Party Adaptation to Electoral Reform,” p. 28).Google Scholar

31. See, for example, Hideo, , “How a Diet Member's Koenkai Adapts to Social and Political Changes”; Pempel, , Regime Shift ; and Curtis, , The Logic of Japanese Politics. Google Scholar

32. Seiji shikin zensho [Complete book of political funds] (Tokyo: Nihon Kokusei Chosakai, various years).Google Scholar

33. Politicians only needed to disclose contributions over ¥1 million. By creating multiple funding groups, they could instruct donors to contribute up to the maximum limit for each group without disclosure. For a discussion of the old campaign finance loopholes in Japanese, see Hirose, Michisada, Seiji to kane [Politics and money] (Tokyo: Iwanami Press, 1989).Google Scholar

34. Cox, Gary and Thies, Michael, “How Much Does Money Matter? ‘Buying’ Votes in Japan, 1967–1990,” Comparative Political Studies 33, No. 1 2000): 44.Google Scholar

35. The figures for 1996, 2000, and 2003 were gathered from Kanpo [public registrar] (Tokyo: Ministry of Finance Printing Press) and the Koho [prefectural gazette].Google Scholar

36. Reed, and Thies, , “The Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan,” p. 395.Google Scholar

37. The Japanese campaign finance book did not report complete figures for the year 1993. I opted to estimate the missing data for specific organizations and total income using 1992 figures. For this reason, the 1993 figures reported here are likely to be slightly lower than if actual complete data had been used.Google Scholar

38. The means comparison tests used the t-test command in Stata 9. In 1986, the means of income for incumbents and newcomers are statistically different from each other at any level greater than 7.3 percent. However, the test did not find a statistically significant difference for the number of support groups. In 1990, the means for the number of groups and income are different at any level greater than 0.0 percent. In 1993, the means for the number of groups are different at any level exceeding 0.3 percent and income at 0.7 percent.Google Scholar

39. Included in this figure are the fund agents.Google Scholar

40. A means comparison test showed that the means for the number of groups and income for incumbents and new candidates are statistically different at any level greater than 0.0 percent for 1996, 2000, and 2003.Google Scholar

41. See, for example, Cox, Gary and Niou, Emerson, “Seat Bonuses Under the Single Non-transferable Vote System: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan,” Comparative Politics 26, No. 2 1994): 221–236; and Cowhey, Peter and McCubbins, Matthew, “Conclusion.” In Cowhey, Peter and McCubbins, Matthew, eds., Structure and Policy in Japan and the United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), pp. 253–260.Google Scholar

42. The fund agent was originally limited to a maximum annual contribution of ¥500,000 from corporations and ¥1.5 million from individuals. In 1999, the law was revised to prohibit contributions from corporations (and labor unions). In contrast, there are no restrictions on donations from corporations, organizations, or individuals to the party branch. These regulations would seem to favor the creation and use of local party branches at the expense of the koenkai and fund agent.Google Scholar

43. This trend, of course, is complicated by contamination effects from the mixture of PR and SMD rules. Many pure PR candidates are incumbents who are unlikely to disband their koenkai as they may anticipate returning to the SMD tier in a future election.Google Scholar

44. The nonsignificant result may be related to the smaller number of pure SMD candidates in the LDP, which may have made it more difficult for statistical significance to be achieved.Google Scholar

45. Krauss, and Pekkanen, , “Explaining Party Adaptation to Electoral Reform,” p. 28.Google Scholar

46. This is possible through the parties' use of a best-loser provision, which is calculated by taking the number of votes the candidate receives divided by votes won by the first-place finisher.Google Scholar

47. Indeed, if politicians have less funds to devote to personalized support, they may have opted to focus on a fewer number of koenkai in their constituency—devoting their attention to koenkai subunits that have enough vote-gathering potential to justify their continued use.Google Scholar

48. It is also possible to argue that the effects of campaign finance laws and electoral rules are interactive and to demonstrate their interactive effects across a variety of electoral systems.Google Scholar

49. Carlson, Matthew, “New Rules, Old Politics: Electoral Laws and Campaign Strategies in Japan” (Ph.D. diss., University of California, Davis, 2003), p. 84.Google Scholar

50. Curtis, , The Logic of Japanese Politics: Leaders, Institutions, and the Limits of Change, p. 166.Google Scholar