Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T03:38:24.016Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Measuring and Explaining Party Change in Taiwan: 1991–2004

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2016

Abstract

This article examines party platform change in a third wave democratic country, Taiwan, during its first fourteen years of full multiparty elections. A variety of datasets show that Taiwan's parties have moved from polarized positions toward a moderate center on all core electoral issues. However, the parties have not converged into indistinguishable catchall parties; instead they have instituted a state of moderate differentiation. The degree to which Taiwan's parties have moderated and been electorally successful has been intimately tied to the internal balance of power between election-oriented and ideologically conservative factions or leaders. In response to public opinion and electoral competition, Taiwan's election-oriented leaders attempted to drag their parties toward centrist positions. The key variable constraining convergent party movement and maintaining differentiation has been the strength of ideologically conservative party factions. When these ideologically oriented factions have held the upper hand in parties, they have promoted ideologically orthodox but often unpopular policies. Even when the election-oriented faction is in control at the party center, secondary factions have been able to constrain movement away from party ideals.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Notes

The fieldwork in 2001 for this project was made possible by a research grant from the Center for Chinese Studies, National Central Library of Taiwan. I would also like to thank the Taiwan Studies Programme of the School of Oriental and African Studies and the Asia Research Centre of the London School of Economics for supporting a research trip in March 2004.Google Scholar

1. Harmel, Robert and Janda, Kenneth, “An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 6, no. 3 (1994): 275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2. Yu-shan, Wu, “Moving Towards the Center: Taiwan's Public Opinion and Mainland Policy Shift,” Taiwan Security Research , 1998, available at http://www.taiwansecurity.org/ts-wu.htm; Chu-cheng, Ming, “Centrifugal Competition and the Development of Republic of China's Party Politics,” Theory and Policy 12, no. 2 (Taipei, 1998): 142–156.Google Scholar

3. Harmel, and Janda, , “An Integrated Theory,” pp. 259287, 261.Google Scholar

5. Tun-jen, Cheng and Yung-ming, Hsu, “Issue Structure, the DPP's Factionalism, and Party Realignment,” in Hung-mao, Tien, Taiwan's Electoral Politics and Democratic Transition (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 1996), pp. 137173.Google Scholar

6. Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Voting (New York: Harper Rose, 1957).Google Scholar

7. Yu-shan, Wu, “Moving Towards the Center.” Google Scholar

8. Harmel, and Janda, , “Integrated Theory,” p. 284.Google Scholar

9. Agh, Attila, “Defeat and Success as Promoters of Change,” Party Politics 3, no. 3 (1997): 427444.Google Scholar

10. In my interviews the most commonly cited defeats were 1991 for the DPP and 2000 for the KMT.Google Scholar

11. Budge, Ian, “A New Spatial Theory of Party Competition: Uncertainty, Ideology, and Policy Equilibria Viewed Comparatively and Temporally,” British Journal of Political Science 24 (1994): 446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

12. The term leapfrog refers to the process where Party A attempts to steal an issue from Party B by placing more emphasis on the issue in an election campaign.Google Scholar

13. A rare exception to this neglect of ideology is Liu Tsung-wei, “Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change in Taiwan from 1989 to 1998,” paper presented at the seventh Taiwanese Political Science Association Conference, Kaohsiung, December 2000.Google Scholar

14. The largest cross-national manifesto project was carried out by the Manifesto Research Group; for details, see Budge, Ian, Klingemann, Hans Dieter, Volkens, Andrea, Bara, Judith, and Tanenbaum, Eric, Mapping Policy Preferences: Estimates for Parties, Electors, and Governments, 1945–1988 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001). For an example of a large-scale elite survey, see Laver, Michael and Hunt, W. B., Policy and Political Competition (London: Routledge, 1992).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15. All three parties in Taiwan have only issued manifestos since 1998. Similarly, I am only aware of two such elite surveys carried out in Taiwan in the 1990s. Lin Chia-long used party image questions for a sample of sixty-six legislators in 1995 and 1996. Chia-long, Lin, “Paths to Democracy: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective” (Ph.D. diss., Yale University, 1998). Huber and Inglehart included Taiwan in their cross-national expert survey that placed major parties on a left-right spectrum. See Huber, J. and Inglehart, R., “Expert Interpretations of Party Space and Party Location in 42 Societies,” Party Politics 1, no. 1 (1995): 73–111.Google Scholar

16. The elections included the National Assembly in 1991 and 1996; the Legislative Yuan in 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001; the Municipal Executive (city mayor and county magistrates) in 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998, and 2001; the provincial governor in 1994; and the president in 1996, 2000, and 2004. Although the Municipal Executive is a local office, the media treats these campaigns as national events. Official ads refer to those clearly produced or financed by the party center or in presidential elections, by the official campaign headquarters.Google Scholar

17. These three papers also reflect the main political currents, with the China Times closer to the Mainstream KMT faction, United Daily News sympathetic with the Nonmainstream KMT faction, and Liberty Times closer to the DPP.Google Scholar

18. See Budge, et al., Mapping Policy Preferences. Google Scholar

19. Hsieh, John, “Continuity and Change in Taiwan's Electoral Politics,” in Hsieh, John and Newman, David, eds., How Asia Votes (New York: Chatham House Press, 2002), pp. 3249.Google Scholar

20. Rigger, Shelley, From Opposition to Power: Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2001); Chao, Linda and Myers, Ramon, The First Chinese Democracy: Political Life in the Republic of China on Taiwan (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

21. My main criterion for selection was politicians who had been involved in a minimum of three national-level elections and those who held important decisionmaking positions in their parties during the 1990s. This included twenty-two from the KMT, twenty-nine from the DPP, and ten from the NP. The lower number of KMT respondents was due to a higher interview refusal rate.Google Scholar

22. Tsung-wei, Liu, “The Effects of Electoral Laws on Party Competition in Taiwan, 1989–1998: With Particular Reference to Single Non-Transferable Vote” (Ph.D. diss., University of Essex, 2001), tab. 8.1.Google Scholar

23. Ibid.Google Scholar

24. Hsieh, John and Niou, Emerson, “Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics,” paper presented at the American Political Science Association Conference, September 1995.Google Scholar

25. The figures for Taiwan independence are reached by subtracting the scores for “Taiwan independence: negative” from “Taiwan independence: positive.” Therefore a positive score represents support for Taiwan independence, while a negative score represents an anti-Taiwanese-independence stance.Google Scholar

26. Author interview with Hsu Tien-tsai, Tainan, August 25, 2001.Google Scholar

27. Author interview with Yen Chin-fu, Taipei, September 28, 2001.Google Scholar

28. Author interview with Fu He-kang, Taipei, November 1, 2001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

29. Author interview with Wu Den-yih, Nantou, October 8, 2001.Google Scholar

30. Author interview with Wei Yong, Taipei, November 5, 2001.Google Scholar

31. Author interview with former KMT propaganda chief, Taipei, October 19, 2001.Google Scholar

32. Author interview with Yang Tai-shun, Taipei, November 1, 2001.Google Scholar

33. Author interview with Hsieh Chi-ta, Kaohsiung, September 7, 2001.Google Scholar

35. Author interview with Chang Jung-gong, Taipei, October 17, 2001.Google Scholar

36. Author interview with Lin Chuo-shui, Taipei, September 24, 2001.Google Scholar

37. Kuo, Julian, The DPP's Painful Transition (Taipei: Commonwealth Press, 1998).Google Scholar

38. Author interview with Hau Pei-tsun, Taipei, November 7, 2001.Google Scholar

39. Author interview with Ting Shou-chung, Taipei, September 27, 2001.Google Scholar

40. This point was made by a number of KMT politicians in my 2001 interviews.Google Scholar

41. In my interviews with KMT politicians I was unable to find a single supporter of this proposal.Google Scholar

42. United Daily News , March 15, 2004, p. A1.Google Scholar

43. Author interview with Chen Chung-hsin, Taipei, October 23, 2001.Google Scholar

44. Peng only received 21 percent of the vote, beating the DPP's previous all-time low of 23.9 percent in the Taiwanese-independence-centered campaign of 1991.Google Scholar

45. See NP ad in United Daily News , November 22, 1998, p. 1.Google Scholar

46. Author interview with NP chair Hsieh Chi-ta, Kaohsiung, September 7, 2001.Google Scholar

47. The only NP candidate elected was standing on the offshore island of Kinmen.Google Scholar

48. The groups that benefited most from the KMT's martial law–era welfare system were known as the “Jungongjiao,” meaning the military, civil service, and education sectors.Google Scholar

49. China Times , October 28, 1993, p. 2.Google Scholar

50. China Times , November 25, 1994, p. 2.Google Scholar

51. Data supplied by Sheng Shing-yuan of National Chengchi University's Election Study Center.Google Scholar

52. In the 2000 Election Study Center survey, respondents were asked to place themselves and the main parties on a spectrum in which passively maintaining the existing social welfare system equals 0 and actively promoting social welfare equals 10. In the 2000 survey the average placement for the DPP was 6.5, the KMT 4.8, the NP 5.2, and the respondent 5.6.Google Scholar

53. Author interview with Apollo Chen, Taipei, September 28, 2001.Google Scholar

54. Ming-tong, Chen, “The DPP's Party Image,” paper presented at the 1998 annual conference of the Taiwanese Political Science Association, December 1998, Soochow University, Taipei.Google Scholar

55. See China Times , November 1, 1997, p. 3.Google Scholar

56. China Times , November 6, 1997, p. 2.Google Scholar

57. China Times , November 7, 1997, p. 1.Google Scholar

58. Author interview with Wu Den-yih, Nantou, October 8, 2001.Google Scholar

59. Author interview with Hsu Hsin-liang, Taipei, September 28, 2001.Google Scholar

60. Workers in the military, civil service, and education sectors have long had the best welfare provisions. Since these groups have a disproportionate number of mainlanders, some in the DPP have complained of an ethnic bias in the welfare system.Google Scholar

61. Author interview with Yao Chia-wen, Taipei, October 2, 2001.Google Scholar

62. China Times , November 5, 1993, p. 2.Google Scholar

63. I am indebted to the Taiwanese political scientist Wu Chung-li for pointing this out.Google Scholar

64. In my 2001 interviews numerous KMT politicians accepted that the party's corrupt image had contributed to its fall from office.Google Scholar

65. Liberty Times , November 28, 1992, p. 6.Google Scholar

66. China Times , November 5, 1995, p. 2.Google Scholar

67. Although the DPP did not stress anticorruption in its newspaper ads in 1997, corruption was its main theme in its television advertising campaign.Google Scholar

68. Liu I-chou supplied Election Study Center data.Google Scholar

69. For example, see Baum, Julian, “Spring Cleaning: Old Style Politicians Hit by Corruption Indictments,” Far Eastern Economic Review , April 28, 1994, p. 18.Google Scholar

70. Author interview with Huang Hui-chen, Taipei, September 26, 2001.Google Scholar

71. Author interview with Chang Chun-hong, Taipei, September 26, 2001.Google Scholar

72. China Times , December 7, 1995, p. 16.Google Scholar

73. This point was made by a number of former NP politicians in interviews in the fall of 2001.Google Scholar

74. Yu-shan, Wu, “Moving Towards the Center”; Chu-cheng, Ming, “Centrifugal Competition.” Google Scholar