Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T09:21:17.989Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

MISSILE DEFENSES AND STRATEGIC STABILITY IN ASIA: EVIDENCE FROM SIMULATIONS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 May 2020

Jaganath Sankaran Open the ORCID record for Jaganath Sankaran [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The contention over the quantity and quality of regional missile defenses forward-deployed by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region animates much of the US–China disagreement about strategic stability. The Chinese argue that the deployed assets exceed reasonable defensive requirements and suggest that if these missile-defense deployments continue, they will be forced to increase the size of their nuclear arsenal. In disagreement, the United States claims that regional missile defenses are defensive by design, limited in scope, and necessary to defeat a North Korean missile campaign. In this article, a series of simulation experiments were developed to empirically test these opposing arguments over missile defenses and strategic stability. The simulations indicate that current deployments are necessary for defense and proportional to the threat. The analysis also argues that current deployments do not possess the ability to alter the US–China strategic nuclear balance significantly. The article concludes with a discussion of other subjective aspects of national security that may explain Chinese concerns and explore possible ways to reassure China.

Keywords

North Koreamissilemissile defenseChinaJapanreassurance
Type
Article
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 20 , Issue 3 , November 2020 , pp. 485 - 508
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Associated Press. 2013. “Navy Ships Growing in Capability Amid Missile Threats from Iran, North Korea.” Fox News Live. May 30. www.foxnews.com/us/navy-ships-growing-in-capability-amid-missile-threats-from-iran-north-korea.Google Scholar
Bean, Eloise E., and McGlothin, W. H.. 1959. A Model for Assessing the Effect of Maintenance on Missile Launch Probabilities. US Air Force Project RAND Research Memorandum. RM-2451. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM2451.html.Google Scholar
Bennett, Bruce W. 2018. Alternate Paths to Korean Unification. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.10.7249/RR2808CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, Bruce W. 2000. “The Emerging Ballistic Missile Threat: Global and Regional Ramifications.” In Emerging Threats, Force Structures, and the Role of Air Power in Korea, edited by Crawford, Natalie W., and Moon, Chung-In. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2000.Google Scholar
Bermudez, Joseph S. Jr. 2001. The Armed Forces of North Korea. New York: I. B. Tauris, 2001.Google Scholar
Bermudez, Joseph S. Jr. 2011. “Behind the Lines: North Korea's Ballistic Missile Units.” Jane's Intelligence Review, July.Google Scholar
Bray, Scott W. 2017. “North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and Missile Capability.” Speech to the Institute for Corean-American Studies, National Intelligence Manager East Asia. www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/20170726-NIM-East-Asia-Speech-to-ICAS-on-North-Koreas-Nulcear-and-Ballistic-Missile-Programs.pdf.Google Scholar
Brooks, Linton, and Rapp-Hooper, Mira. 2013. “Extended Deterrence, Assurance, and Reassurance in the Pacific during the Second Nuclear Age.” In Strategic Asia 2013–14: Asia in the Second Nuclear Age, edited by Tellis, Ashley J., Denmark, Abraham M., and Tanner, Travis. Seattle: The National Bureau of Asian Research.Google Scholar
Brown, Gerald, Carlyle, Matthew, Diehl, Douglas, Kline, Jeffrey, and Wood, Kevin. 2005. “A Two-Sided Optimization for Theater Ballistic Missile Defense.” Operations Research 55 (5): 745–763. doi:10.1287/opre.1050.0231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cepek, Robert J. 2005. “Ground-Based Midcourse Defense: Continue Testing, But Operational Fielding Must Take a Backseat to Theater Missile Defense and Homeland Security.” MA Thesis, Joint Advanced Warfighting School.Google Scholar
Cha, Victor D. 2010. “Five Myths about North Korea.” The Washington Post. December 10. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/10/AR2010121002488.html.Google Scholar
Chase, Michael S. 2015. “Nuclear Policy Issues in the 2013 Edition of the Science of Military Strategy: Part 1 on Nuclear Policy, Strategy and Force Modernization.” China Brief: A Journal of Analysis and Information 15 (11). https://jamestown.org/program/nuclear-policy-issues-in-the-2013-edition-of-the-science-of-military-strategy-part-1-on-nuclear-policy-strategy-and-force-modernization/.Google Scholar
Choi, Ju-Hwal, and Ko, Young-Hwan. 1997. North Korean Missile Proliferation. Washington DC: US Government Publishing office. www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105shrg44649/pdf/CHRG-105shrg44649.pdf.Google Scholar
Clark, Bryan. 2014. Commanding the Seas: A Plan to Reinvigorate U.S. Navy Surface Warfare. Washington DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.Google Scholar
CNBC. “US Will Pay Price for THAAD Deployment, Beijing Mouthpiece People's Daily Says.” 2016. CNBC. October 1. www.cnbc.com/2016/10/01/north-korea-tensions-us-will-pay-price-for-thaad-in-south-korea-beijing-peoples-daily-says.html.Google Scholar
Coats, Daniel R. 2017. Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. Washington DC. May 11. www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/SSCI%20Unclassified%20SFR%20-%20Final.pdf.Google Scholar
Cole, Bernard D. 2007. The Military Instrument of Statecraft at Sea: Naval Options in an Escalatory Scenario Involving Taiwan: 2007–2016. Edited by Swaine, Michael D., Yang, Andrew, Medeiros, Evan, and Mastro, Oriana. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Consulate-General of the People's Republic of China in Los Angeles. 2016. “Wang Yi Talks about US's Plan to Deploy THAAD Missile Defense System in ROK.” Consulate-General of the People's Republic of China in Los Angeles. February 13. www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cgla/eng/topnews/t1340525.htm.Google Scholar
Cunningham, Fiona S., and Taylor Fravel, M.. 2015. “Assuring Assured Retaliation: China's Nuclear Posture and U.S.–China Strategic Stability.” International Security 40 (2): 7–50.10.1162/ISEC_a_00215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Howard. 1999. “China Warns U.S. on East Asian Missile Defense Cooperation.” Arms Control Today. www.armscontrol.org/act/1999-01/press-releases/china-warns-us-east-asian-missile-defense-cooperation.Google Scholar
“Document: Army–Navy Memo on Need for Ballistic Missile Defense Strategy.” 2015. USNI News. March 19. https://news.usni.org/2015/03/19/document-army-navy-memo-on-need-for-ballistic-missile-defense-strategy.Google Scholar
Doyle, Gerry. 2017. “If Missiles are Headed to Guam, Here is What Could Stop Them.” The New York Times. August 11. www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/world/asia/guam-north-korea-missile-defense.html.Google Scholar
Dvorkin, Vladimir. 2015. “Postcrisis Perspectives: The Prospects for Cooperation among the United States, NATO, and Russia on Ballistic Missile Defense.” In Regional Missile Defense from a Global Perspective, edited by Catherine M., Kelleher and Dombrowski, Peter J., 121–136. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Edelstein, David M. 2002. “Managing Uncertainty: Beliefs About Uncertainty and the Rise of Great Powers.” Security Studies 12 (1): 1–40.10.1080/0963-640291906735CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elleman, Michael. 2017. “The Pukguksong-2: Lowering the Bar on Combat Readiness?” 38 North Blog. May 25. http://38north.org/2017/05/pukguksong2_052517/.Google Scholar
Federation of American Scientists. 2000. “Missile Facilities.” Federation of American Scientists. January 6. https://fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/facility/missile.htm.Google Scholar
Fetter, Steve. 1991. “Ballistic Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Is the Threat? What Should Be Done?” International Security 16 (1): 5–42.10.2307/2539050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fisher, Max. 2013. “Here's North Korea's Official Declaration of ‘War’.” The Washington Post. March 30. www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/03/30/heres-north-koreas-official-declaration-of-war/?utm_term=.274c2dd68262.Google Scholar
Glaser, Charles L. 1997. “The Security Dilemma Revisited.” World Politics 50 (1): 171–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gordon, Michael R. 2013. “Kerry in China to Seek Help in Korea Crisis.” The New York Times. April 13. https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/world/asia/kerry-in-china-seeking-help-on-north-korea.html.Google Scholar
Greaves, Samuel A. 2019. Unclassified Statement of Lieutenant General Samuel A. Greaves, USAF, Director, Missile Defense Agency, Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Washington DC. April 3. www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Greaves_04-03-19.pdf.Google Scholar
Grisafi, John G. 2015. “South Korea Faces Tough Choice on THAAD: Deployed or Not, Missile System Likely to Remain a Contentious Issue.” NKNEWS.org. March 24. www.nknews.org/2015/03/south-korea-faces-tough-choice-on-thaad/.Google Scholar
Gunzinger, Mark, and Clark, Bryan. 2016. Winning the Salvo Competition: Rebalancing America's Air and Missile Defenses. Washington DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA6173-PGM2_Report_WEB_2.pdf.Google Scholar
International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2005. Iran's Strategic Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Japan, Ministry of Defense 2017. Defense of Japan 2017. Tokyo: Ministry of Defense, 2017.Google Scholar
Jize, Qin, and Xiaokun, Li. 2010. “China Circled by Chain of US Anti-Missile Systems.” China Daily. February 22. www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2010-02/22/content_9481548.htm.Google Scholar
Kim, Tong-Hyung. 2019. “North Korea Says It Tested Crucial New Rocket Launch System.” AP News. August 1. www.apnews.com/09c7059291d846a091e139183fe7c4b7.Google Scholar
Kulacki, Gregory. 2016. China's Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists.Google Scholar
LaGrone, Sam. 2019a. “USS Fitzgerald Leaves Mississippi Drydock After More Than a Year of Repairs.” USNI News. April 16. https://news.usni.org/2019/04/16/uss-fitzgerald-leaves-mississippi-drydock-after-more-than-a-year-of-repairs.Google Scholar
LaGrone, Sam. 2019b. “USS John S. McCain Back to Sea After Completing Repairs from Fatal 2017 Collision.” USNI News. October 27. https://news.usni.org/2019/10/27/uss-john-s-mccain-back-to-sea-after-completing-repairs-from-fatal-2017-collision.Google Scholar
Lars, Abmann. 2007. Theater Missile Defense (TMD) in East Asia: Implications for Beijing and Tokyo. Piscataway, NJ: Transaction.Google Scholar
Lewis, George, and Postol, Theodore. 2012. “Ballistic Missile Defense: Radar Range Calculations for the AN/TPY-2 X-Band and NAS Proposed GBX Radars.” Mostlymissiledefense. September 21. https://mostlymissiledefense.com/2012/09/21/ballistic-missile-defense-radar-range-calculations-for-the-antpy-2-x-band-and-nas-proposed-gbx-radars-september-21–2012/.Google Scholar
McKeon, Brian P. 2016. Statement of Brian P. McKeon, Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. April 14.Google Scholar
McVadon, Eric A. 2002. “Chinese Reaction to New US Initiatives on Missile Defense.” In China's Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities, edited by Scobell, Andrew and Wortzel, Larry M., 169–199. Carlisle, PA: US Army War College.Google Scholar
Medeiros, Evan S. 2001. Ballistic Missile Defense and Northeast Asian Security: Views from Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo. The Stanley Foundation and the Monterey Institute for International Studies. www.nonproliferation.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ballistic_missile_defense_northeast_asian_security.pdf.Google Scholar
Meick, Ethan, and Salidjanova, Nargiza. 2017. “China's Response to U.S.–South Korean Missile Defense System Deployment and its Implications.” Staff Research Report, US–China Ecoonomic and Security Review Commission. www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-response-us-south-korean-missile-defense-system-deployment-and-its-implications.Google Scholar
Ministry of Defense, Government of Japan. 2017. Defense of Japan 2017. Tokyo. Ministry of Defense, Government of Japan.Google Scholar
Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea. 2016. 2016 Defense White Paper. Seoul, Republic of Korea: Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea. www.mnd.go.kr/user/mndEN/upload/pblictn/PBLICTNEBOOK_201705180357180050.pdf.Google Scholar
Missile Defense Advocacy Agency. 2017. “The North Korea Missile Threat,” MDAA Country Brief – North Korea. December. https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Edited-Final-Dec-2017-The-North-Korean-Missile-Threat.pdf.Google Scholar
Missile Defense Advocacy Agency. 2018. “Aegis Afloat.” Missile Defense Advocacy Agency, May 22. http://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-defense-systems-2/missile-defense-systems/u-s-deployed-intercept-systems/aegis-afloat/.Google Scholar
Missile Defense Agency. 2019. “Fact Sheet: Ballistic Missile Defense Intercept Flight Test Record.” September. www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/testrecord.pdf.Google Scholar
National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), 2017. 2017: Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat. NASIC-1031-0985-17. www.nasic.af.mil/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=F2VLcKSmCTE%3D&portalid = 19.Google Scholar
Navy Office of Information. 2017. “Navy Releases Collision Report for USS Fitzgerald and USS John S. McCain Collisions.” November 1. www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=103130.Google Scholar
Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2013. “North Korea.” Nuclear Threat Initiative. February. www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/facilities/.Google Scholar
Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2014. “Design Characteristics of North Korea's Ballistic and Cruise Missiles.” Nuclear Threat Initiative. Last updated, July 2014. www.nti.org/media/pdfs/design_characteristics_of_north_koreas_ballistic_and_cruise_missiles.pdf?_=1406744044&_=1406744044.Google Scholar
O'Rourke, Ronald. 2018. “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress.” RL33745. Washington DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Parachini, John V. 2018. Assessing North Korea's Chemical and Biological Weapons Capabilities and Prioritizing Countermeasures. Washington DC: RAND Coporation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pennington, Matthew. 2017. “Defector: US Strike Would Trigger Automatic NK Retaliation.” AP News. November 1. https://apnews.com/26e1c98b196b4b9c9ccec82c5447dda3.Google Scholar
Pinkston, Daniel A. 2008. The North Korea Ballistic Missile Program. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2008.Google Scholar
Przemieniecki, J. S. 2000. Mathematical Methods in Defense Analyses. 3rd ed. Reston, VA: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rinehart, Ian E., Hildreth, Steven A., and Lawrence, Susan V.. 2015. “Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region: Cooperation and Opposition.” R43116. Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report. Washington DC: Congressional Research Service (CRS). https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R43116.pdf.Google Scholar
Riqiang, Wu. 2013. “China's Anxiety About US Missile Defence: A Solution.” Survival 55 (5): 29–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rostker, Bernard. 2000. Information Paper: Iraq's Scud Ballistic Missiles, Chapter V: “Iraq's Use of SCUDs During Operation Desert Storm.” Washington DC: Department of Defense. https://fas.org/nuke/guide/iraq/missile/scud_info/scud_info_s04.htm.Google Scholar
Rubenson, David, and Slomovic, Anna. 1990. “The Impact of Missile Proliferation on US Power Projection Capabilities.” RAND Coporation. www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N2985.html.Google Scholar
Saalman, Lora. 2013a. “The China Factor.” In Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation, edited by Arbatov, Alexei and Dvorkin, Vladimir, translated by Natalia Bubnova, 226–252. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center. www.files.ethz.ch/isn/163188/Missile_Defense_book_eng_fin2013.pdf.Google Scholar
Saalman, Lora. 2013b. “Placing a Renminbi Sign on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Reductions.” In Strategic Stability: Contending Interpretations, edited by Colby, Elbridge A. and Gerson, Michael A., enlarged edition, 343–376. Washington DC: Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) and US Army War College.Google Scholar
Sankaran, Jaganath. 2015. The United States’ European Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System: Defending against Iranian Threats without Diluting the Russian Deterrent. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Sankaran, Jaganath. 2016. “The Tactical Utility and Strategic Effects of the Emerging Asian Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System.” In Missile Defense, Extended Deterrence, and Nonproliferation in the 21st Century, edited by Kelleher, Catherine M.. Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC).Google Scholar
Sankaran, Jaganath, and Fearey, Bryan. 2017. “Missile Defense and Strategic Stability: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea.” Contemporary Security Policy 38 (3): 321–344. doi:10.1080/13523260.2017.1280744.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schoff, James L. 2009. “Realigning Priorities: The U.S.–Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence.” Cambridge, MA: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. www.ifpa.org/pdf/RealignPriorities.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shim, Elizabeth. 2017. “U.S. THAAD Launchers in South Korea Begin Operations.” UPI. September 12. www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/09/12/US-THAAD-launchers-in-South-Korea-begin-operations/2361505241523/.Google Scholar
Swicker, Charles C. 1998. “Theater Ballistic Missile Defense from the Sea: Issues for the Maritime Component Commander.” The Newport Papers. Newport,RI: Naval War College. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=1013&context=newport-papers.Google Scholar
Syring, J.D. 2016. Statement of Vice Admiral J.D. Syring, Director, Missile Defense Agency, Hearings on National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017 and Oversight of Previously Authorized Programs, Before the Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives, 114th Congress. April 14.Google Scholar
Syring, J.D. 2017. Statement of Vice Admiral J.D. Syring, Director, Missile Defense Agency, Hearings on National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 and Oversight of Previously Authorized Program, Before the House Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed Services, 115th Congress. June 7.Google Scholar
Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. 2000. “Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited.” International Security 25 (3): 128–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tarzi, Amin, and Parliament, Darby. 2001. “Missile Messages: Iran Strikes MKO Bases in Iraq.” Nonproliferation Review 8 (2): 125–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
US Defense Intelligence Agency. 1991. North Korea: The Foundations for Military Strength. Washington DC: Defense Intelligence Agency. Available at https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/002534510.Google Scholar
US Department of Defense. 2010a. Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report. Washington DC: US Deparment of Defense.Google Scholar
US Department of Defense. 2010b. Nuclear Posture Review Report. Washington DC: US Deparment of Defense.Google Scholar
US Department of Defense. 2019. 2019 Missile Defense Review. Washington DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense.Google Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1998. “Offense, Defense, and the Causes of War.” International Security 22 (4): 5–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Watanabe, Takeshi, and Koike, Osamu. 2018. “Chapter 3. The Korean Peninsula: ICBMs and the New South Korean Government's Alliance Politics.” In East Asian Strategic Review 2018. Tokyo: The Japan Times. www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/east-asian/pdf/2018/east-asian_e2018_03.pdf.Google Scholar
Werner, Ben. 2018. “PHOTOS: USS Milius Arrives in New Homeport Yokosuka.” USNI News. May 22.Google Scholar
The White House. 2017. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. Washington DC: The White House.Google Scholar
Work, Robert. 2006. “Thinking About Seabasing: All Ahead, Slow.” Washington DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.Google Scholar
Wroughton, Lesley. 2016. “U.S. Hopes China Will Agree to Talk about South Korea Missile Defense.” Reuters World News. March 29. https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0WV2E0.Google Scholar
Yonhap News. 2014. “NK's March Missile Test Aimed at Evading Interceptor Systems: Sources.” Yonhap News Agency. June 19. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20140619004600315.Google Scholar
Yoshihara, Toshi. 2011. “Chinese Views of Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Defense.” In Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles, edited by Erickson, Andrew S. and Goldstein, Lyle J.. Annapolis, MD: China Maritime Studies Institute and Naval Institute Press.Google Scholar
Zhao, Tong. 2017. “U.S.–China Strategic Stability and the Impact of Japan: A Chinese Perspective.” In A Precarious Triangle: US–China Strategic Stability and Japan, 28–44. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_321_Stability_WEB.pdf.Google Scholar
Zhun, Liu. 2015. “THAAD Deployment Would Transform South Korea into Cannon Fodder for US.” Global Times, May 26. www.globaltimes.cn/content/923734.shtml.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Sankaran supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Sankaran supplementary material(File)
File 269 KB