Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-16T21:42:25.222Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Efficiency of the Chinese Silver Standard, 1920–1933

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 September 2021

Nuno Palma
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Manchester, The Arthur Lewis Building, Oxford Road Manchester M13 9PL, United Kingdom Research Fellow at Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Prof. Aníbal Bettencourt 9, 1600-189 Lisboa, Portugal Research Affiliate at CEPR, London, United Kingdom. E-mail: nuno.palma@manchester.ac.uk
Liuyan Zhao*
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, School of Economics, Peking University, No.5 Yiheyuan Road Haidian District, Beijing, P.R.China 100871.
*

Abstract

We test for integration of financial markets in China during 1920-1933 using a new dataset of domestic exchange rates. Our data concerns tael-denominated telegraphic transfers between Shanghai and nine other cities. We find that Chinese financial markets, as measured by the efficiency of silver-point arbitrage, were highly integrated among major commercial hubs in north and central China, but there was a lower level of integration for more remote cities in the south. Our paper presents the first comprehensive assessment of the efficiency of the Chinese silver standard and contributes to a revaluation of market performance during pre-communist China.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Economic History Association 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank the editor Eric Hilt, two anonymous referees, Markus Eberhardt, Debin Ma, and Meng Wu for comments. Joakim Book, Javier Charotti, Nicholas Gachet, and Nick Ridpath provided research assistance. Financial support to Nuno Palma from Fundaçaõ para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (CEECIND/04197/2017) and to Liuyan Zhao from the National Social Science Foundation of China (20BJL120) and the Seed Grant of School of Economics at Peking University are gratefully acknowledged.

References

REFERENCES

Allen, Robert C., Jean-Pascal, Bassino, Debin, Ma, Christine, Moll-Murata, and Jan, Luiten Van Zanden.Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, 1738-1925: In Comparison with Europe, Japan, and India.Economic History Review 64, S1 (2011): 838.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brandt, Loren, Ma, Debin, and Rawski, Thomas. “From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History Behind China’s Economic Boom.” Journal of Economic Literature 52, no. 1 (2014): 45123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canjels, Eugene, Prakash-Canjels, Gauri, and Taylor, Alan M.. “Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (2004): 868–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiao, Chi-ming, and Yin, Lien-ken. “Farm Credit and Farm Ownership.” Economic Facts 4 (1937): 188–96.Google Scholar
Clark, Truman. “Violations of the Gold Points, 1890-1908.Journal of Political Economy 92, no. 5 (1984): 791823.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cryer, Jonathan, and Kung-Sik, Chan. Time Series Analysis with Applications in R. New York: Springer, 2008.Google Scholar
Elvin, Mark. The Retreat of the Elephants: An Environmental History of China. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2004.Google Scholar
Esteves, Rui, Jaime, Reis, and Ferramosca, Fabiano. “Market Integration in the Golden Periphery: The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854-1891. Explorations in Economic History 46, no. 3 (2009): 324–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernholz, Ricardo, Mitchener, Kris, and Weidenmier, Marc. “Pulling up the Tarnished Anchor: The End of Silver as a Global Unit of Account.” Journal of International Money and Finance 74 (2017): 209–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flandreau, Marc. The Glitter of Gold: France, Bimetallism, and the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1848-1873. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fu, Chang. Gesheng guancheng yu jing gongfacheng zhi bijiao [the Comparison of the Beijing Tael and other Provincial Taels]. Shiye Zazhi [Industrial Journal] 67, (1923): 126–27.Google Scholar
Goetzmann, William, Ukhov, Andrey, and Zhu, Ning. “China and the World Financial Markets 1870-1939: Modern Lessons from Historical Globalization.” Economic History Review 60, no. 2 (2007): 267–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Bruce. “Inference in TAR Models.Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 2, no. 1 (1997): 114.Google Scholar
Hoag, Christopher. “The Atlantic Telegraph Cable and Capital Market Information Flows.Journal of Economic History 66, no. 2 (2006): 342–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsiao, Liang-lin. China’s Foreign Trade Statistics, 1864-1949. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press, 1974.Google Scholar
Jacks, David, Yan, Se, and Zhao, Liuyan. “Silver Points, Silver Flows, and the Measure of Chinese Financial Integration.” Journal of International Economics 108 (2017): 377–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jin, Bangping. Guonei shangye huidui yaolan [A Guide to Domestic Exchanges]. Shanghai: Shanghai Commercial and Savings Bank, 1925.Google Scholar
Kaminishi, Miriam. “The Seasonal Demand for Multiple Monies in Manchuria: Re-Examining Zhang Zuolin’s Government’s Economic Policy During the 1920s.Financial History Review 20, no. 3 (2013): 335–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kann, Eduard. The Currencies of China: An Investigation of Silver and Gold Transactions Affecting China with a Section on Copper. Shanghai: Kelly and Walsh Press, 1927.Google Scholar
Keller, Wolfgang, Shiue, Carol, and Wang, Xin. “Capital Markets in China and Britain, 1770-1860: Evidence from Grain Prices.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 3 (2021): 3164.Google Scholar
Kong, Min. Nankai jingji zhishu huibian [Nankai Economic Indicators]. Beijing: China Social Science Press, 1988.Google Scholar
Koyama, Mark, Moriguchi, Chiaki, and Sng, Tuan-Hwee. “Geopolitics and Asia’s Little Divergence: State Building in China and Japan after 1850.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 155 (2018): 178–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Ling-Fan.Information Asymmetry and the Speed of Adjustment: Debasements in the Mid-Sixteenth Century.Economic History Review 68, no. 4 (2015): 1203–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luukkonen, Ritva, Saikkonen, Pentti, and Teräsvirta, Timo. “Testing Linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models.” Biometrika 75, no. 3 (1988): 491–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ma, Debin. “Economic Growth in the Lower Yangzi Region of China in 1911-1937: A Quantitative and Historical Analysis.” Journal of Economic History 68, no. 2 (2008): 355–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ma, Debin. “Financial Revolution in Republican China During 1900-37: A Survey and a New Interpretation.” Australian Economic History Review 59, no. 3 (2019): 242–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ma, Debin, and Liuyan, Zhao. “A Silver Transformation: Chinese Monetary Integration in Times of Political Disintegration, 1898-1933.Economic History Review 73, no. 2 (2020): 513–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ma, Junya. “Traditional Finance and China’s Agricultural Trade, 1920-1933.Modern China 34, no. 3 (2008): 344–71.Google Scholar
Meissner, Christopher M.A New World Order: Explaining the International Diffusion of the Gold Standard, 1870-1913.Journal of International Economics 66, no. 2 (2005): 385406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchener, Kris J., Masato, Shizume, and Weidenmier, Marc D.. “Why Did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan.Journal of Economic History 70, no. 1 (2010): 2756.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgenstern, Oskar. International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles, volume 8. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1959.Google Scholar
Morota, Hiroaki. “Money Supply Mechanisms and Modernization of the Tianjin Financial Market from the 1920s to the 1930s.Socio-Economic History 79, no. 3 (2013): 373–94.Google Scholar
Nishimura, Shizuya. “The Foreign and Native Banks in China: Chop Loans in Shanghai and Hankow Before 1914.Modern Asian Studies 39, no. 1 (2005): 109–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nogues-Marco, Pilar. “Competing Bimetallic Ratios: Amsterdam, London, and Bullion Arbitrage in Mid-Eighteenth Century.Journal of Economic History 73, no. 2 (2013): 445–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Officer, Lawrence H.The Remarkable Efficiency of the Dollar-Sterling Gold Standard, 1890-1906.Journal of Economic History 49, no. 1 (1989): 141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Officer, Lawrence H.. Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points: Exchange Rates, Parity and Market Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palma, Nuno, and Liuyan, Zhao. “The Efficiency of the Chinese Silver Standard, 1920-1933.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-07-01. https://doi.org/10.3886/E144321V1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
People’s Bank of China. Jindai zhongguo de jinrong shichang [Financial Markets in Modern China]. Beijing: China Financial Publishing House, 1989.Google Scholar
People’s Bank of China (Shanghai Branch). Shanghai qianzhuang shiliao (Historical Materials of Shanghai Native Banks). Shanghai: People’s Publishing House, 1960.Google Scholar
Perkins, Dwight. Agricultural Development in China, 1368-1968. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1969.Google Scholar
Rawski, Evelyn. Agricultural Change and the Peasant. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1972.Google Scholar
Rawski, Thomas. G. Economic Growth in Prewar China. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989.Google Scholar
Sheridan, James. China in Disintegration: The Republican Era in Chinese History, 1912-1949. New York: Free Press, 1975.Google Scholar
Shiue, Carol. “Transport Costs and the Geography of Arbitrage in Eighteenth-Century China.American Economic Review 92, no. 5 (2002): 1406–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shiue, Carol, and Wolfgang, Keller. “Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution.American Economic Review 97, no. 4 (2007): 1189–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skinner, William. “Cities and the Hierarchy of Local Systems.” In The City in Late Imperial China, edited by William Skinner, G., 275352. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1977.Google Scholar
Sng, Tuan-Hwee.Size and Dynastic Decline: The Principal-Agent Problem in Late Imperial China 1700-1850.Explorations in Economic History 54 (2014): 107–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spiller, Pablo, and Robert, Wood. “Arbitrage During the Dollar-Sterling Gold Standard, 1899-1908: An Econometric Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 96, no. 4 (1988): 882–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steinwender, Claudia. “Real Effects of Information Frictions: When the States and the Kingdom Became United.American Economic Review 108, no. 3 (2018): 657–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, Changheng. Neiguo huidui daquan (Book of Domestic Exchanges). Beijing: No. 1 Business School, 1921.Google Scholar
Tang, Jian-jun. “Interest Rates and Financial Market Integration: A Long-Run Perspective on China.” Ph.D thesis, The London School of Economics and Political Science, 2016.Google Scholar
Taylor, Alan M.Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price.Econometrica 69, no. 2 (2001): 473–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsay, Ruey. “Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series.Biometrika 73, no. 2 (1986): 461–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu, Daye. Yige xinde waihui zhishu (A New Exchange Rate Index). Review of Political Economics 3, no. 3 (1935): 463509.Google Scholar
Wu, Leonard. “The Crucial Role of the Chinese Native Banks.Far Eastern Survey 4, no. 12 (1935): 8993.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yan, Zhongping. Zhongguo jindai jingjishi tongji ziliao xuanji (Statistical Materials on the Economic History of Modern China). Beijing: Science Publishing House, 1955.Google Scholar
Yang, Yinpu. Zhongguo jinrong lun (Chinese Finance). Shanghai: Liming Publishing House, 1936.Google Scholar
Young, John P.The Shanghai Tael.American Economic Review 21, no. 4 (1931): 682–84.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Palma and Zhao supplementary material

Online Appendix
Download Palma and Zhao supplementary material(File)
File 4.8 MB