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The Presidential Political Business Cycle of 1972

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

Robert R. Keller  and
Ann Mari May
Robert R. Keller
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado 80523
Ann Mari May
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado 80523
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Abstract

Previous studies of the political business cycle have examined time series data to determine whether a pattern of pre-election boom and post-election slump exists. The studies do not investigate the behavior and mechanisms by which a politician may effectuate a political business cycle. We focus on one time period, 1969 to 1972, and conclude that President Nixon's personality and operating environment explain why he manipulated the economy for political gain. The mechanisms he utilized to improve macroeconomic conditions before the 1972 election include monetary policy, fiscal policy, and wage-price controls.

Type
Papers Presented at the Forty-Third Annual Meeting of the Economic History Association
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 44 , Issue 2 , June 1984 , pp. 265 - 271
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1984

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References

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10 Ibid.

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19 Ibid.

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21 Ibid. Another insider states: “The discussion will associate monetary policy with Arthur Burns, because for all Intents and purposes monetary policy was Burns.” Pierce, James L., “The Political Economy of Arthur Burns,” Journal of Finance, 34 (05 1979), 485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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28 The orthodox literature investigates the existence of the political business cycle by correlating the performance of economic aggregates such as unemployment and disposable income with voting behavior. See Fair, Ray C., “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 50 (05 1978), 159–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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32 Ibid.

33 Refer to: Presidential Campaign Activities of 1972, Watergate and Related Activities: Use of Incumbency-Responsiveness Program (Washington, D.C., 1974), Books 18 and 19.Google Scholar

34 Tufte, Political Control of the Economy.Google Scholar

35 Wheeler, Lies, p. 11. Wheeler talks about the impact that Sindlinger and his poll had on the White House. Also see Gallup Opinion Index, July 1971, Report No. 73, p. 17.Google Scholar

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