Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T07:54:19.887Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Timing Decisions and the Behavior of Mutual Fund Systematic Risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Extract

The investment performance of professionally managed portfolios, in general, and mutual funds, in particular, has been the subject of considerable attention in finance. Fama [9] has suggested that overall portfolio performance be broken down in such a manner that the individual sources of performance can be identified. Two basic sources are: (1) the ability of the portfolio manager to forecast price movements of individual common stocks relative to stocks in general (selectivity or microforecasting); and (2) the ability to forecast the direction of the stock market relative to fixed income securities (timing or macroforecasting).

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

[1]Alexander, G. J.Applying the Market Model to Long-Term Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 5 (12 1980), pp. 10631080.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[2]Alexander, G. J., and Stover, R. D.. “Consistency of Mutual Fund Performance during Varying Market Conditions.” Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 32, No. 3 (Spring 1980), pp. 219226.Google Scholar
[3]Ambachtsheer, K.Portfolio Theory and the Security Analyst.” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 28, No. 6 (1112 1972), pp. 5357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[4]Bogue, M. C. III, “The Estimation and Behavior of Systematic Risk.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University (1973).Google Scholar
[5]Boquist, J. A.; Racette, G. A.; and Schlarbaum, G. G.. “Duration and Risk Assessment for Bonds and Common Stocks.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 5 (12 1975), pp. 13601365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[6]Campanella, F. B.The Measurement of Portfolio Risk Exposure. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books (1972).Google Scholar
[7]Cooley, T. F. “Estimation in the Presence of Sequential Parameter Variation.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania (1971).Google Scholar
[8]Fabozzi, F. J., and Francis, J. C.. “Mutual Fund Systematic Risk for Bull and Bear Markets: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 34, No. 5 (12 1979), pp. 12431250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[9]Fama, E. F.Components of Investment Performance.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 27, No. 3 (06 1972), pp. 551567.Google Scholar
[10]Francis, J. C., and Fabozzi, F. J.. “Stability of Mutual Fund Systematic Risk Statistics.” Journal of Business Research, Vol. 8, No. 2 (06 1980), pp. 263275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[11]Garbade, K., and Rentzler, J.. “Testing the Hypothesis of Beta Stationarity.” International Economic Review, Vol. 22, No. 3 (10 1981), pp. 577586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[12]Grant, D.Portfolio Performance and the ‘Cost’ of Timing Decisions.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 3 (06 1977), pp. 837846.Google Scholar
[13]Guthery, S.Partition Regression.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 69, No. 348 (12 1974), PP. 945947.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[14]Henriksson, R. D., and Merton, R. C.. “On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills.” Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 4 (10 1981), pp. 513533.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[15]Jarrow, R. A.The Relationship between Yield, Risk, and Return of Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No. 4 (09 1978), pp. 12351240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[16]Jensen, M. C.Risk, the Pricing of Capital Assets and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios.” Journal of Business, Vol. 42, No. 2 (04 1969), pp. 167247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[17]Jensen, M. C.. “The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945–64.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, No. 2 (05 1968), pp. 389416.Google Scholar
[18]Kalman, R. E.A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems.” Transactions of ASME, Series D: Journal of Basic Engineering, Vol. 82 (03 1960), pp. 3545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[19]Kalman, R. E., and Bucy, R. S.. “New Results in Linear Filtering and Prediction Theory.” Journal of Basic Engineering, Vol. 83 (1963), pp. 95108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[20]Klemkosky, R. C., and Mannes, T. S.. “The Predictability of Real Portfolio Risk Levels.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No. 2 (05 1978), pp. 631639.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[21]Kon, S. F., and Jen, F. C.. “Estimation of Time-Varying Systematic Risk and Performance for Mutual Fund Portfolios: An Application of Switching Regression.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No. 2 (05 1978), pp. 457475.Google Scholar
[22]Kon, S. F., and Jen, F. C.. “The Investment Performance of Mutual Funds: An Empirical Investigation of Timing, Selectivity, and Market Efficiency.” Journal of Business, Vol. 52, No. 2 (04 1979), pp. 263289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[23]LaMotte, L. R., and McWhorter, A. Jr, “An Exact Test for the Presence of Random Walk Coefficients in a Linear Regression Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 73, No. 364 (12 1978), pp. 816820.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[24]LaMotte, L. R., and McWhorter, A. Jr, “A Comparison of Tests for Random-Walk Regression Coefficients.” 1979 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, pp. 596600.Google Scholar
[25]Merton, R. C.On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts.” Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 3 (07 1981), pp. 363406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[26]Miller, T. W., and Gressis, N.. “Nonstationarity and Evaluation of Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 15, No. 3 (09 1980), pp. 639654.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[27]Myers, S. C.On the Use of Beta in Regulatory Proceedings: A Comment.” Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 3, No. 2 (Autumn 1972), pp. 622627.Google Scholar
[28]Ohlson, J., and Rosenberg, B.. “Systematic Risk of the CRSP Equal-Weighted Common Stock Index: A History Estimated by Stochastic-Parameter Regression.” Journal of Business, Vol. 55, No. 1 (01 1982), pp. 121145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[29]Olsen, A.; Seeley, J.; and Birkes, D.. “Invariant Quadratic Unbiased Estimation for Two Variance Components.” Annals of Statistics, Vol. 4 (1976), pp. 878890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[30]Pindyck, R. S., and Rubinfeld, D. L.. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. NY: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 2nd ed. (1981).Google Scholar
[31]Quandt, R. E.A New Approach to Estimating Switching Regressions.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 67, No. 338 (06 1972), pp. 306310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[32]Roll, R.A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory's Tests; Part I: On Past and Potential Testability of the Theory.” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2 (03 1977), pp. 129176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[33]Roll, R.Ambiguity When Performance Is Measured by the Securities Market Line.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 33, No. 4 (09 1978), pp. 10511069.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[34]Roll, R.A Reply to Mayers and Rice (1979).” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 7, No. 4 (12 1979), pp. 391400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[35]Satterthwaite, F. E.Synthesis of Variance.” Psychometricka, Vol. 6 (1941), pp. 309316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[36]Sunder, S.Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficient Tests for Individual Common Stocks.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 35, No. 4 (09 1980), pp. 883896.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[37]Theil, H.Principles of Econometrics. Santa Barbara, CA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (1971).Google Scholar
[38]Theil, H., and Mennes, L. B. M.. Multiplicative Randomness in Time Series Regression Analysis, Report No. 5901 of the Econometric Institute of the Netherlands School of Economics (1959).Google Scholar
[39]Treynor, J., and Mazuy, K.. “Can Mutual Funds Outguess the Market?Harvard Business Review, Vol. 44, No. 4 (0708 1966), pp. 131136.Google Scholar