Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T04:53:10.340Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A Joint Framework for Consistently Pricing Interest Rates and Interest Rate Derivatives

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2009

Massoud Heidari
Affiliation:
Caspian Capital Management, LLC, 745 5th Ave., 28th floor, New York, NY 10151. massoud.heidari@ccm.natixis.com
Liuren Wu
Affiliation:
Baruch College, Zicklin School of Business, 1 Bernard Baruch Way, Box B10-225, New York, NY 10010. liuren.wu@baruch.cuny.edu

Abstract

Dynamic term structure models explain the yield curve variation well but perform poorly in pricing and hedging interest rate options. Most existing option pricing practices take the yield curve as given, thus having little to say about the fair valuation of the underlying interest rates. This paper proposes an m + n model structure that bridges the gap in the literature by successfully pricing both interest rates and interest rate options. The first m factors capture the yield curve variation, whereas the latter n factors capture the interest rate options movements that cannot be effectively identified from the yield curve. We propose a sequential estimation procedure that identifies the m yield curve factors from the LIBOR and swap rates in the first step and the n options factors from interest rate caps in the second step. The three yield curve factors explain over 99% of the variation in the yield curve but account for less than 50% of the implied volatility variation for the caps. Incorporating three additional options factors improves the explained variation in implied volatilities to over 99%.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aït-Sahalia, Y. “Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities.” Econometrica, 64 (1996), 527560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balduzzi, P.; Das, S.; Foresi, S.; and Sundaram, R.. “A Simple Approach to Three-Factor Affine Term Structure Models.” Journal of Fixed Income, 6 (1996), 4353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bikbov, R., and Chernov, M.. “Unspanned Stochastic Volatility in Affine Models: Evidence from Eurodollar Futures and Options.” Management Science, forthcoming (2009).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, F. “The Pricing of Commodity Contracts.” Journal of Financial Economics, 3 (1976), 167179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, A.; Gatarek, D.; and Musiela, M.. “The Market Model of Interest Rate Dynamics.” Mathematical Finance, 7 (1997), 127255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, R.-R., and Scott, L.. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Multifactor Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Fixed Income, 3 (1993), 1431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collin-Dufresne, P., and Goldstein, R. S.. “Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility.” Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 16851730.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dai, Q., and Singleton, K.. “Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models.” Journal of Finance, 55 (2000), 19431978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffee, G. “Estimating the Price of Default Risk.” Review of Financial Studies, 12 (1999), 197226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffee, G. “Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models.” Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 405443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffee, G., and Stanton, R.. “Estimation of Dynamic Term Structure Models.” Working Paper, University of California Berkeley (2003).Google Scholar
Duffie, D., and Kan, R.. “A Yield-Factor Model of Interest Rates.” Mathematical Finance, 6 (1996), 379406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffie, D.; Pan, J.; and Singleton, K.. “Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump Diffusions.” Econometrica, 68 (2000), 13431376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffie, D., and Singleton, K.. “An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 12871321.Google Scholar
Goldstein, R. “The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Random Field.” Review of Financial Studies, 13 (2000), 365384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, D.; Jarrow, R.; and Morton, A.. “Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation.” Econometrica, 60 (1992), 77105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heidari, M., and Wu, L.. “Are Interest Rate Derivatives Spanned by the Term Structure of Interest Rates?” Journal of Fixed Income, 13 (2003), 7586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ho, T. S. Y., and Lee, S. B.. “Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims.” Journal of Finance, 41 (1986), 10111030.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hull, J., and White, A.. “Bond Option Pricing Based on a Model For the Evolution of Bond Prices.” Advances in Futures and Options Research, 6 (1993), 113.Google Scholar
James, J., and Webber, N.. Interest Rate Modelling: Financial Engineering. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2000).Google Scholar
Jamshidian, F. “LIBOR and Swap Market Models and Measures.” Finance and Stochastics, 1 (1997), 293330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knez, P. J.; Litterman, R.; and Scheinkman, J.. “Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns.” Journal of Finance, 49 (1994), 18611882.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leippold, M., and Wu, L.. “Asset Pricing under the Quadratic Class.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 37 (2002), 271295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leippold, M., and Wu, L.. “Design and Estimation of Multi-Currency Quadratic Models.” Review of Finance, 11 (2007), 167207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, H., and Zhao, F.. “Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Hedging Interest Rate Derivatives.” Journal of Finance, 61 (2006), 341378.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Litterman, R., and Scheinkman, J.. “Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns.” Journal of Fixed Income, 1 (1991), 5461.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longstaff, F. A.; Santa-Clara, P.; and Schwartz, E. S.. “The Relative Valuation of Caps and Swaptions: Theory and Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Finance, 56 (2001a), 20672109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longstaff, F. A.; Santa-Clara, P.; and Schwartz, E. S.. “Throwing Away a Million Dollars: The Cost of Suboptimal Exercise Strategies in the Swaptions Market.” Journal of Financial Economics, 62 (2001b), 3966.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longstaff, F. A., and Schwartz, E. S.. “Interest-Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two Factor General Equilibrium Model.” Journal of Finance, 47 (1992), 12591282.Google Scholar
Miltersen, K. R.; Sandmann, K.; and Sondermann, D.. “Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 409430.Google Scholar
Musiela, M., and Rutkowski, M.. “Continuous-Time Term Structure Models: Forward Measure Approach.” Finance and Stochastics, 1 (1997a), 261291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Musiela, M., and Rutkowski, M.. Martingale Methods in Financial Modeling. Berlin: Springer Verlag (1997b).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearson, N. D., and Sun, T.-S.. “Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model.” Journal of Finance, 49 (1994), 12791304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pennacchi, G. “Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data.” Review of Financial Studies, 4 (1991), 5386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Santa-Clara, P., and Sornette, D.. “The Dynamics of Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic String Shocks.” Review of Financial Studies, 14 (2001), 149185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wadhwa, P. “An Empirical Analysis of the Common Factors Governing U.S. Dollar-LIBOR Implied Volatility Movements.” Journal of Fixed Income, 9 (1999), 6168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar