Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-16T06:59:24.476Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A New Look at the Random Walk Hypothesis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 October 2009

Extract

The basic idea behind the random walk hypothesis is that in a free competitive market the price currently quoted for a particular good or service should reflect all of the information available to participants in the market that influence its present price. To the extent that future conditions of the demand or supply are currently known, their effect on the current price should be properly taken into account.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1968

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alexander, S. S., “Price Movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks,” Industrial Management Review, May 1961, 2, pp. 726.Google Scholar
Alexander, S. S., “Price Movements in Speculative Markets: Trends or Random Walks, No. 2,” Tine Random Character of Stock Market Prices, Revised Edition, Cootner, P. A., Editor (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. Press), 1964, pp. 338372.Google Scholar
Brinegar, C. S., “Statistical Analysis of Speculative Price Behavior,” Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Stanford University, 1954.Google Scholar
Cowles, A., “A Revision of Previous Conclusions Regarding Stock Price Behavior,” Econometrica, October 1960, 28, pp. 909915.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, J. V., “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information,” Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Cornell University, 1967.Google Scholar
Demsetz, H., “The Cost of Transacting,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1968, 82, pp. 3353.Google Scholar
Fama, E. F., “The Behavior of Stock Market Prices,” Journal of Business, January 1965, 38, pp. 34105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and Blume, M. E., “Filter Rules and Stock Market Trading,” Journal of Business: Special Supplement, January 1966, 39, pp. 226241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferber, R., “Short-Run Effects of Stock Market Services on Stock Prices,” Journal of Finance, March 1958, 13, pp. 8095.Google Scholar
Larson, A. B., “Measurement of a Random Process in Futures Prices,” Food Research Institute Studies, November 1960, 1.Google Scholar
Larson, A. B., “Price Prediction on the Egg Futures Market,” Food Research Institute Studies, Special Supplement, 1967, 7, pp. 4964.Google Scholar
Levy, R. A., “The Theory of Random Walks: A Survey of Findings,” The American Economist, Fall 1967, 11, pp. 3448.Google Scholar
Mandelbrot, B., “Forecasts of Future Prices, Unbiased Markets, and ‘Martingale’ Models,” Journal of Business: Special Supplement, January 1966, 39, pp. 242255.Google Scholar
Niederhoffer, V., “Clustering of Stock Prices,” Operations Research, March–April 1965, 13., pp. 258265.Google Scholar
Niederhoffer, V., and Osborne, M. F. M., “Market Making and Reversal on the Stock Exchange,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 1966, 61, pp. 897916.Google Scholar
Osborne, M. F. M., “Brownian Motion in the Stock Market,” Operations Research, March–April 1959, 7, PP 145173.Google Scholar
Osborne, M. F. M., “Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices,” Operations Research, May–June 1962, 10, pp. 345379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Osborne, M. F. M., “Some Quantitative Tests for Stock Price Generating Models and Trading Folklore,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, June 1967, 62, pp. 321340.Google Scholar
Samuelson, P. A., “Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly,” Industrial Management Review, Spring 1965, 6, pp. 4150.Google Scholar
Smidt, S., “A Test of the Serial Independence of Price Changes in Soybean Futures,” Food Research Institute Studies, 1965, 5, pp. 117136.Google Scholar
Smidt, S., and Johnson, A., “Expectations and Information: A Study of Pork Inventory Behavior,” Graduate School of Business and Public Administration, Cornell University, 1962. (Mimeo)Google Scholar
Stigler, G. J., “Public Regulation of the Securities Market,” Journal of Business, April 1964, 36, pp. 117142.Google Scholar
Working, H., “Price Effects of Scalping and Day Trading,” Proceedings of the Chicago Board of Trade Annual Symposium, 1954, pp. 114139.Google Scholar
Working, H., “A Theory of Anticipatory Prices,” American Economic Review, May 1958, 48, pp. 188199.Google Scholar
Working, H., “Tests of a Theory Concerning Floor Trading on Commodity Exchanges,” Food Research Institute Studies, Special Supplement, 1967, 7, pp. 548.Google Scholar
Ying, C. C., “Stock Market Prices and Volumes of Sales,” Econometrica, July 1966, 34, pp. 676685.Google Scholar