Since the 1970s, the sudden, rapid collapse of 20% of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula has led to large-scale thinning and acceleration of its tributary glaciers. The leading hypothesis for the collapse of most of these ice shelves is the process of hydrofracturing, whereby a water-filled crevasse is opened by the hydrostatic pressure acting at the crevasse tip. This process has been linked to observed atmospheric warming through the increased supply of meltwater. Importantly, the low-density firn layer near the ice-shelf surface, providing a porous medium in which meltwater can percolate and refreeze, has to be filled in with refrozen meltwater first, before hydrofracturing can occur at all. Here we build upon this notion of firn air depletion as a precursor of ice-shelf collapse, by using a firn model to show that pore space was depleted in the firn layer on former ice shelves, which enabled their collapse due to hydrofracturing. Two climate scenario runs with the same model indicate that during the 21st century most Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves, and some minor ice shelves elsewhere, are more likely to become susceptible to collapse following firn air depletion. If warming continues into the 22nd century, similar depletion will become widespread on ice shelves around East Antarctica. Our model further suggests that a projected increase in snowfall will protect the Ross and Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelves from hydrofracturing in the coming two centuries.

We study the presence and effect of subglacial water on the motion of inland ice in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. A full-Stokes model including three routing schemes for a thin film of subglacial water and a modification of a Weertman-type sliding relation, to account for higher sliding velocities under wet basal conditions, were used to perform 200 ka spin-up simulations on a 2.5 km grid. Subsequent 30 ka simulations with wet and dry basal conditions were analysed for the effects of sliding on the thermal regime and velocities. The occurrence of the major ice streams in this area is mainly controlled by the ice and bedrock geometry. Smaller glaciers only appear as pronounced individual glaciers when subglacial water is taken into account. The thermal regime is affected by creep instabilities produced by an ice rheology including a microscopic water content, leading to cyclic behaviour on millennial timescales of the ice flow and occurrence of temperate ice at the base.

Fedchenko glacier is by far the largest glacier in the Pamir, Tajikistan. Owing to early accurate mapping of the glacier it is possible to evaluate glacier changes over eight decades, which is an exceptionally long time period for this remote mountain region. During this time a total volume loss of 5 km3 was observed on the main trunk of the glacier, while the total area changed by only 1.4%. It is observed that the volume loss migrates from the lower parts of the glacier towards the upper ablation zone. The comparatively small change in area is a result of the supraglacial debris cover on the glacier tongue, which decouples the area loss from the volume loss to a considerable degree. The observed velocities of the glacier do not reflect the volume changes up to now because the interannual variability is larger than possible long-term changes so far. The intra-annual velocity distribution in the central ablation zone probably reflects the evolution of the basal drainage system. Based on ice thickness measurements and simple ice-dynamic assumptions, the total volume of Fedchenko glacier is 123.4 ± 8 km3.

The Ebinur lake basin, Tien Shan, China, was described in the early 20th century as the ‘Green Labyrinth’. This relatively productive area supports agriculture and stands in contrast to the regional aridity. Glacier melt runoff is an important source of water for this arid region and has played a significant role in its economic development. However, over the past 40 years the ecology and environment of the region have seriously degenerated due to human activity and climate change. To investigate changes in glacier water supply, measurements from two reference glaciers were performed and used to validate satellite data and historical data for glaciers in the water catchment. Variability in regional glacier total area and volume over the past 40 years was reconstructed from historical documents, aerial photographs and remote-sensing data. Our investigations of 446 glaciers showed that from 1964 to 2004 the total glacier area decreased by 14.7% (0.4% a–1), corresponding to an estimated volume change of 20.5%. During this period, the most dramatic decrease in glacier area corresponded to a rapid rise in temperature. This reduction in glacier area is accelerating and impacting the future sustainability of the region’s water resources.

In this paper we reconstruct the space–time trajectory beneath the surface of Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, of the corpses of three mountaineers that disappeared in March 1926 and reappeared at the glacier surface in June 2012. Our method integrates the time-dependent velocity field of an existing full-Stokes glacier model, starting at the point where the corpses were found at the glacier surface. Our main result is that we were able to localize the immersion location where the brothers presumably died. As a second result, the upstream end point of the computed trajectory emerges very close to the glacier surface in 1926, giving a new and global validation of the glacier model in space and time. Testing the sensitivity of the immersion location obtained with respect to the model and other uncertainties indicates an area of 0.6% of the entire glacier area where the accident could have occurred. Our result suggests that death was not caused by an avalanche or a fall into a crevasse; instead, it is likely that the mountaineers became disoriented in prolonged severe weather conditions and froze to death.

We estimate the glacier mass balance of a 9.5 km2 mountain glacier using three approaches for balance years 2009, 2010 and 2011. The photogrammetric, GPS and glaciological methods yielded sampling densities of 100, 5 and 2 points km-2, with measurement precisions of ± 0.40, ± 0.10 and ± 0.10 m w.e. respectively. Our glaciological measurements likely include a positive bias, due to omission of internal and basal mass balance, and uncertainty in determining the interface between snow and firn with a probe (±0.10 m w.e.). Measurements from our photogrammetric method include a negative bias introduced by the manual operator and our temperature index model used to correct for different dates of imaging (0.15 m w.e.), whereas GPS measurements avoid these biases. The photogrammetric and GPS methods are suitable for estimating glacier-wide annual mass balance, and thus provide a valuable measure that complements the glaciological method. These approaches, however, cannot be used to estimate mass balance at a point or mass-balance profiles without a detailed understanding of the vertical component of ice velocity.

We estimate the distribution of ice thickness for a Himalayan glacier using surface velocities, slope and the ice flow law. Surface velocities over Gangotri Glacier were estimated using sub-pixel correlation of Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Velocities range from ˜14–85 m a–1 in the accumulation region to ˜20–30 m a–1 near the snout. Depth profiles were calculated using the equation of laminar flow. Thickness varies from ˜540 m in the upper reaches to ˜50–60 m near the snout. The volume of the glacier is estimated to be 23.2 ± 4.2 km3.

Alaskan glaciers are among the largest regional contributors to sea-level rise in the latter half of the 20th century. Earlier studies have documented extensive and accelerated ice wastage in most regions of Alaska. Here we study five decades of mass loss on high-elevation, land-terminating glaciers of the Wrangell Mountains (~ 4900 km2) in central Alaska based on airborne center-line laser altimetry data from 2000 and 2007, a digital elevation model (DEM) from ASTER and SPOT5, and US Geological Survey topographic maps from 1957. The regional mass-balance estimates derived from center-line laser altimetry profiles using two regional extrapolation techniques agree well with that from DEM differencing. Repeat altimetry measurements reveal accelerated mass loss over the Wrangell Mountains, with the regional mass-balance rate evolving from –0.07 ± 0.19 m w.e. a–1 during 1957–2000 to –0.24 ± 0.16 m w.e. a–1 during 2000–07. Nabesna, the largest glacier in this region (˜1056 km2), lost mass four times faster during 2000–07 than during 1957–2000. Although accelerated, the mass change over this region is slower than in other glacierized regions of Alaska, particularly those with tidewater glaciers. Together, our laser altimetry and satellite DEM analyses demonstrate increased wastage of these glaciers during the last 50 years.

Inverse methods, where surface data are ‘inverted’ in order to quantify basal properties of ice sheets, play a major role in initializations. The balance-velocity method is a unique linear initialization, in which accumulation, surface elevation and thickness data are used to calculate the velocities and basal conditions required to maintain the observed ice-sheet altimetric signal, resulting in an estimate of the basal sliding viscosity that is guaranteed to be non-negative. We examine the observation that balance velocities based on the shallow-ice approximation (SIA) are extremely dependent on grid size, showing that Antarctic balance velocities on a 1 km grid are excessively over-channelized. Incorporating the membrane-stress approximation into balance-velocity calculations and comparing them with a simplified analytical solution shows that numerical error monotonically decreases with grid resolution and over-channelization is eliminated for Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology. In contrast, for the SIA reducing grid size below the membrane-stress coupling length fails to improve accuracy. However, since this approach is nonlinear, a unique viscosity solution is not guaranteed, and in practice ‘sliding viscosity’ estimates are noisy. This raises problems of the sensitivity of these estimates to data and model errors, which may mean using inverse or smoothing techniques in association with balance-velocity methods in many, if not all, practical applications.

Major ice loss has recently been observed along coastal outlet glaciers of the West Antarctic ice sheet, mainly due to increased melting below the ice shelves. However, the behavior of this marine ice sheet is poorly understood, leading to significant shortcomings in ice-sheet models attempting to predict future sea-level rise. The stability of a marine ice sheet is controlled by the dynamics at the grounding line, the boundary between the grounded ice stream and the floating ice shelf. One of the largest contributors to current sea-level rise is the fast-flowing Thwaites Glacier, which flows into the Amundsen Sea. Here we use an ice-stream/ice-shelf model and perform a number of experiments along a central flowline to analyze the sensitivity of its grounding line on centennial timescales. In the absence of width and buttressing effects, we find that the grounding line retreats by ˜300 km in 200 years from the present day (rate of 1.5 km a–1). With variable glacier width implemented in the model, flow convergence slows the retreat of Thwaites grounding line at 0.3–1.2 km a–1. The parameterization of ice-shelf buttressing according to different observed scenarios further reduces the glacier retreat and can even lead to a slight advance in the most buttressed case.

We assess the runoff and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet in the Nuuk region (southwest) using output of two regional climate models (RCMs) evaluated by observations. The region encompasses six glaciers that drain into Godthåbsfjord. RCM data (1960–2012) are resampled to a high spatial resolution to include the narrow (relative to the native grid spacing) glacier trunks in the ice mask. Comparing RCM gridded results with automatic weather station (AWS) point measurements reveals that locally models can underestimate ablation and overestimate accumulation by up to tens of per cent. However, comparison with lake discharge indicates that modelled regional runoff totals are more accurate. Model results show that melt and runoff in the Nuuk region have doubled over the past two decades. Regional SMB attained negative values in recent high-melt years. Taking into account frontal ablation of the marine-terminating glaciers, the region lost 10–20 km3 w.e. a–1 in 2010–12. If 2010 melting prevails during the remainder of this century, a low-end estimate of sea-level rise of 5 mm is expected by 2100 from this relatively small section (2.6%) of the ice sheet alone.

Several different methodologies have previously been employed in the tracking of glacier terminus change, though a systematic comparison of these has not been undertaken. The frequent application of single methods to multiple glaciers over large geographical areas such as Greenland, raises the question of whether individual methodologies are robust. In this study we evaluate three existing methodologies that have been widely used to track terminus change (the centre-line, bow and box methods) against a full range of idealized glaciological scenarios and six examples of real glaciers. We also evaluate two new methodologies that aim to reduce measurement error compared with the existing methodologies. The first is a modification to the box method that can account for termini retreating through fjords that change orientation (termed the curvilinear box method), while the second determines the average terminus position relative to the glacier centre line using an inverse distance weighting extrapolation (termed the extrapolated centre-line method). No single method tested achieved complete accuracy for all scenarios, though the extrapolated centre-line method was able to successfully account for variable fjord orientation, width and terminus geometry with the least error.

Tidewater glaciers in Greenland experienced widespread retreat during the last century. Information on their behaviour prior to this is often poorly constrained due to lack of observations, while determining the drivers prior to instrumental records is also problematic. Here we present a record of the dynamics of Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS), southwest Greenland, from its Little Ice Age maximum (LIAmax) to 1859 – the period before continuous air temperature observations began at Nuuk in 1866. Using glacial geomorphology, historical accounts, photographs and GIS analyses, we provide evidence KNS was at its LIAmax by 1761, had retreated by ~5 km by 1808 and a further 7 km by 1859. This predates retreat at Jakobshavn Isbræ by 43–113 years, demonstrating the asynchroneity of tidewater glacier terminus response following the LIA. We use a one-dimensional flowband model to determine the relative sensitivity of KNS to atmospheric and oceanic climate forcing. Results demonstrate that terminus forcing rather than surface mass balance drove the retreat. Modelled glacier sensitivity to submarine melt rates is also insufficient to explain the retreat observed. However, moderate increases in crevasse water depth, driving an increase in calving, are capable of causing terminus retreat of the observed magnitude and timing.

Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) repeat-track laser altimetry has identified 17 sites within the Byrd Glacier catchment, East Antarctica, where rapid ice-surface height changes have occurred, which have been interpreted as evidence for ‘active’ subglacial lakes. Here we present evidence from a new radio-echo sounding (RES) survey at 11 of these locations to understand the bed conditions associated with the proposed hydrological activity. At none of the sites examined did we find evidence in support of substantial pooled basal water. In the majority of cases, along-track RES bed reflection amplitudes either side of the locations of surface height change are indistinguishable from those within the features. These results indicate that, in most cases, hypothesized ‘active’ lakes are not discrete radar targets and are therefore much smaller than the areas of surface height change. In addition, we have identified three new relatively large subglacial lakes upstream of the region where most ‘active’ subglacial lakes are found, in an area where the hydraulic gradient is significantly lower. Our results suggest that substantial and long-lasting basal water storage in the Byrd Glacier catchment occurs only under low hydraulic gradients, while coast-proximal sites of hydraulic activity likely involve small or temporary accumulations of basal water.

Making confident statements about the evolution of an ice-sheet–shelf system with a numerical model requires the capability to reproduce the migration of the grounding line. Here we show that the shallow-ice approximation/shallow-shelf approximation hybrid-type Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with its recent improvements, is capable of modeling the grounding line motion in a perturbed ice-sheet–shelf system. The model is set up according to the three-dimensional Marine Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP3d), and simulations are carried out across a broad range of spatial resolutions. Using (1) a linear interpolation of the grounding line with locally interpolated basal friction and (2) an improved driving-stress computation across the grounding line, the reversibility of the grounding line (i.e. its retreat after an advance forced by a local perturbation of basal resistance) is captured by the model even at medium and low resolutions (∆x > 10 km). The transient model response is qualitatively similar to that of higher-order models but reveals a higher initial sensitivity to perturbations on very short timescales. Our findings support the application of PISM to the Antarctic ice sheet from regional up to continental scales and on relatively low spatial resolutions.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, southern Victoria Land, East Antarctica, are a polar desert, and melt from glacial ice is the primary source of water to streams, lakes and associated ecosystems. Previous work found that to adequately model glacier ablation and subsurface ice temperatures with a surface energy-balance model required including the transmission of solar radiation into the ice. Here we investigate the contribution of subsurface melt to the mass balance of (and runoff from) Dry Valley glaciers by including a drainage process in the model and applying the model to three glacier sites using 13 years of hourly meteorological data. Model results for the smooth glacier surfaces common to many glaciers in the Dry Valleys showed that sublimation was typically the largest component of surface lowering, with rare episodes of surface melting, consistent with anecdotal field observations. Results also showed extensive internal melting 5–15 cm below the ice surface, the drainage of which accounted for ~50% of summer ablation. This is consistent with field observations of subsurface streams and formation of a weathering crust. We identify an annual cycle of weathering crust formation in summer and its removal during the 10 months of winter sublimation.

Accumulation is a key parameter governing the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Several studies have documented the spatial variability of accumulation over wide spatial scales, primarily using point data, remote sensing or modeling. Direct measurements of spatially extensive, detailed profiles of accumulation in Greenland, however, are rare. We used 400 MHz ground-penetrating radar along the 1009 km route of the Greenland Inland Traverse from Thule to Summit during April and May of 2011, to image continuous internal reflecting horizons. We dated these horizons using ice-core chemistry at each end of the traverse. Using density profiles measured along the traverse, we determined the depth to the horizons and the corresponding water-equivalent accumulation rates. The measured accumulation rates vary from ~0.1 m w.e. a–1 in the interior to ~0.7 m w.e. a–1 near the coast, and correspond broadly with existing published model results, though there are some excursions. Comparison of our recent accumulation rates with those collected along a similar route in the 1950s shows a ~10% increase in accumulation rates over the past 52 years along most of the traverse route. This implies that the increased water vapor capacity of warmer air is increasing accumulation in the interior of Greenland.

Oceanographic instruments suspended beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, have recorded sporadic pressure decreases of 10–20 dbar over a few days at three sites where basal marine ice growth is expected. We attribute these events to flotation due to platelet ice accretion on the instrument moorings. Some events were transient, rapidly returning to pre-event pressures, probably through dislodgement of loosely attached crystals. Driven by these pressure changes, temperatures recorded by the shallowest instruments (within 20 m of the shelf base) tracked in situ freezing temperatures during the events. These observations provide indirect evidence for the presence of frazil ice in the sub-ice-shelf mixed layer and for active marine ice accretion. At one site we infer that a dense layer of platelet ice ˜1.5 m thick was accreted to the ice shelf over a 50 day period. Following some permanent abrupt pressure decreases (which we interpret as due to the lodgement of the uppermost instrument at the ice-shelf base), altered background trends in pressure suggest compaction rates of 3–4 m a–1 for the accreted basal platelet layer. Attachment of platelet ice and resulting displacement of moorings has ramifications for project design and instrument deployment, and implications for interpretation of oceanographic data from sub-ice-shelf environments.