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Evaluation of Two-Ship Collision Severity using Ordered Probit Approaches

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 February 2018

Jinxian Weng ,
Guorong Li ,
Tian Chai  and
Dong Yang
Jinxian Weng*
Affiliation:
(College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China 201306)
Guorong Li
Affiliation:
(College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, China 201306)
Tian Chai
Affiliation:
(Navigation Institute, Jimei University, Xiamen Fujian, China, 361021)
Dong Yang
Affiliation:
(Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China)
*
(E-mail: jxweng@bjtu.edu.cn)
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Abstract

This study develops an ordered probit model to evaluate the factors influencing two-ship collision severity using ten years’ ship collision accident data from Fujian sea areas. The model results show that the involvement of big ships has the largest impact in increasing the probability of a serious or very serious accident, followed by the involvement of fishing vessels. There will be a bigger probability of a serious accident if both ships involved in the collision are cargo ships. We found that the season of spring, poor visibility and night time periods are more likely to be factors in high severity levels of ship collision. The results also reveal that lookout failure plays a decisive role in increasing serious accident risk compared with other types of human errors. The results of this study may be beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to reduce the likelihood of serious ship collisions.

Keywords

Ship CollisionRiskModelling

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 71 , Issue 4 , July 2018 , pp. 822 - 836
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 2018 

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