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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 January 2010
This paper discusses a method for determining the collision risk implicit in horizontal and vertical separation standards which has been developed in the U.K. in accordance with Recommendation 7/1 of the RAC/OPS Divisional meeting. The acceptable collision risk for the North Atlantic is assessed; this must be related to airworthiness criteria and an accident rate of one in ten million is adopted. It is concluded that no immediate change in separation standards can safely be made but that the standard of navigation should be improved to allow a 90 n.m. standard; that with more data a 1000- or 500-ft. vertical separation may prove to be safe; and that longitudinal separation standards require further study. The improvement in traffic capacity which would result from changes in separation standards is also considered.
This and the following nine papers were presented at the 16th I.A.T.A. Technical Conference, of which a report appears opposite. An analysis of long-range air traffic systems made by the Mathematics Department of the Royal Aircraft Establishment for the Ministry of Aviation was presented in several preliminary papers at the Conference. These studies will be described in a series of papers specially prepared for the Journal.