Performance Evaluation of a Novel 4D Trajectory Prediction Model for Civil Aircraft

Abstract

Future air traffic management will require a variety of automated decision support tools to provide conflict-free trajectories and their associated error margins. The ability to correctly forecast aircraft trajectories, i.e. trajectory prediction, is the central component of such automated tools, which will enable continued provision of safe and efficient services in increasingly congested skies. Current approaches for trajectory prediction, available in the open literature, make a number of assumptions in order to simplify the mathematical models of aircraft motion. Furthermore, many existing methods perform three-dimensional trajectory prediction, in which information on expected times of arrival at significant points along the intended aircraft route is not considered. This results in inaccurate trajectories not suitable for conflict detection and resolution. This paper presents a novel four-dimensional trajectory prediction scheme that makes full use of data on expected times of arrival. A three dimensional point-mass model for a standard civil aircraft is used to emulate aircraft dynamics, while the aircraft operating mode is characterised through a set of discrete variables. The aircraft performance model used relies on the EUROCONTROL Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) set and the computed trajectory accounts for the effects of wind. Inputs include navigation data and aircraft intent information, which unambiguously define the trajectory to be computed according to the flight plan. In the proposed model, aircraft intent information is summarised in a simple, but effective, set of instructions contained in a Flight Script. Furthermore, two key innovations to trajectory prediction are introduced. Firstly, a novel scheme to emulate the control system used for aircraft lateral guidance is proposed and secondly, on the basis of aircraft intent information, a new procedure to estimate speed is presented. The performance of the enhanced trajectory model proposed is quantified using a detailed operational dataset (real flight data) captured in a European airspace. The results show that, over an extended time-horizon, the enhanced model is more accurate than two representative existing methods, and that it is suitable for reliable trajectory prediction.