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“Still Doin’ Time”: An Analysis of the Conditional Effects of Legislative Term Limits on State Incarceration Rates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2025

Jason S. Byers  and
Laine P. Shay Open the ORCID record for Laine P. Shay [Opens in a new window]
Jason S. Byers
Affiliation:
University of Connecticut
Laine P. Shay*
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi
*
Corresponding author: Laine P. Shay; Email: laine.shay@tamucc.edu
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Abstract

A vast body of work investigates the consequences of legislative term limits for public policy. However, considerably less research has delved into their effects in noneconomic policy domains. In this article, we develop the argument that implemented term limits increase the effect that a state government’s ideology has on the state’s incarceration rate. When analyzing incarceration rates among all states between 1979 and 2017, we find evidence to support our theoretical expectation. Specifically, for states with term limits, we find that an increase in state government conservatism is associated with a higher incarceration rate. Conversely, for non-term-limited states, we find that the policy preferences of the state government have little influence on the incarceration rate. These findings deepen our insight into how institutional design can affect public policy.

Keywords

American politicsterm limitscriminal justicepublic policyincarceration
Type
Article
Information
Journal of Policy History , Volume 37 , Issue 1 , January 2025 , pp. 71 - 89
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Donald Critchlow and Cambridge University Press

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References

Notes

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66 We have also estimated the coefficients with a robust regression model. The results are similar to those presented here.

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71 It should be noted that the Baker and Hedge scores are derived from scores created by Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson. We rely more heavily on the Baker and Hedge scores because some of the term-limit scores created by Sarbaugh-Thompson have negative values—suggesting that those term-limited states have lower turnover than non-term-limited states. Theoretically this is possible, but data from the Book of the States suggests that this tends not to be the case.

72 Oregon briefly had term limits implemented, but the legal system later invalidated the law. We have reestimated Model 1, however, with the inclusion of a term limit score for Oregon. The results are similar to those presented here.

73 Miller, Crotty, and Crotty, “Consequences of Legislative Term Limits.”

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76 Again, NOMINATE scores are used to construct these ideology scores. For more details, see Berry et al., “Measuring Citizen and Government Ideology.”

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85 It is important to mention that we use single variable imputation to address missing data in our data set. We also updated a few of the variables in the data set that we used to run the analysis.

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91 University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research, UKCPR National Welfare Data.

92 University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research, UKCPR National Welfare Data.

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96 Some caution should be drawn for the unemployment rate variable. When estimating coefficients for a robust regression model, this variable becomes statistically nonsignificant.

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98 We have also analyzed the residuals of our model. When analyzing estimates for a robust regression estimator, our results do not substantively change.

99 Sarbaugh-Thompson, “Measuring ‘Term Limitedness.’”

100 It should be noted that Travis Baker and David Hedge’s term-limit scores are constructed with Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson’s measure of term limits (see Sarbaugh-Thompson, “Measuring ‘Term Limitedness.’”

101 Miller, Crotty, and Crotty, “Consequences of Legislative Term Limits,” 578.

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109 Darienne Gutierrez, “Punishment Rate Measures Prison Use Relative to Crime,” The Pew Charitable Trust, March 23, 2016, https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2016/03/the-punishment-rate.

110 Herbert Koppel, “Sentencing Practices in 13 States,” U.S. Department of Justice: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 1985, https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/sp13s.pdf.

111 Jordan Butcher, “Be Careful What You Count: Updating Legislative Turnover in the 50 States,” American Politics Research 50, no. 4 (2022): 503–10.

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