Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T14:38:55.229Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The partisan politics of the penal–welfare nexus: a quantitative analysis of party influence on the relationship between penal and welfare policies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 August 2020

Helge Staff Open the ORCID record for Helge Staff [Opens in a new window]  and
Georg Wenzelburger
Helge Staff*
Affiliation:
Leibniz Center for Science and Society, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany
Georg Wenzelburger
Affiliation:
Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Kaiserslautern, Germany
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: helge.staff@lcss.uni-hannover.de
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Evidence of a link between the retrenchment of the welfare state and the expansion of the penal state has sparked a debate about the existence of a nexus. In this study, we critically explore this link by focusing on political parties. First, we argue that welfare and penal policies are likely to follow distinct paths, with left-liberal/green parties pushing for less punitive penal and market-liberal/conservative parties for less generous welfare policy. Second, we only expect a nexus between both policy domains if conservative or “third way” social democratic governments are in power. The former follows a coherent ideology, the latter compensates for welfare retrenchment with tough-on-crime policies. We test these claims quantitatively on a unique dataset covering all changes to welfare and penal legislation in Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom and France between 1990 and 2014 and find our expectations supported except conservative influence on the penal–welfare nexus.

Keywords

law and orderpartisan effectspenal policieswelfare state
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 41 , Issue 3 , September 2021 , pp. 573 - 599
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, JF, Merrill, S and Grofman, B (2005) A Unified Theory of Party Competition: A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allan, JP and Scruggs, L (2004) Political Partisanship and Welfare State Reform in Advanced Industrial Societies. American Journal of Political Science, 48(3): 496–512.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arndt, C (2013) The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakker, R, de Vries, C, Edwards, E, Hooghe, L, Jolly, S, Marks, G, Polk, J, Rovny, J, Steenbergen, M and Vachudova, M (2012) Measuring Party Positions in Europe: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey Trend File, 1999–2010. Unpublished manuscript.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beckett, K and Bruce, W (2001) Governing Social Marginality. Welfare, Incarceration, and the Transformation of State Policy, Punishment & Society, 3(1): 43–59.Google Scholar
Béland, D (2009) Ideas, Institutions, and Policy Change. Journal of European Public Policy, 16(5): 701–718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, DS (2003) French Socialists: Refusing the “Third Way”. Journal of Policy History, 15(1): 46–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benoit, K and Laver, M (2006) Party Policy in Modern Democracies. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blackbourn, J (2018) Accountability, Counter-Terrorism and Civil Liberties. King’s Law Journal, 29(2): 297–323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blair, T (2010) A Journey. London: Hutchinson.Google Scholar
Bourgoin, N (2015) La République Contre Les Libertés. Paris: L’Harmattan.Google Scholar
Bradley, D, Huber, E, Moller, S, Nielsen, F and Stephens, JD (2003) Distribution and Redistribution in Postindustrial Democracies. World Politics, 55: 193–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brouard, S, Wilkerson, J, Baumgartner, FR, Timmermans, A, Bevan, S, Breeman, G, Breunig, C, Chaqués, L, Green-Pedersen, C, Jennings, W, John, P, Jones, BD and Lowery, D (2009) Comparer les productions législatives: enjeux et méthodes. Revue internationale de politique comparée, 16(3): 381–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Budde, E, Heichel, S, Hurka, S and Knill, C (2018) Partisan Effects in Morality Policy Making. European Journal of Political Research, 57(2): 427–449.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, JL (2010) Neoliberalism’s Penal and Debtor States. Theoretical Criminology, 14(1): 59–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castles, F and McKinlay, RD (1979) Does Politics Matter: An Analysis of the Public Welfare Commitment in Advanced Democatic States. European Journal of Political Research, 7(2): 169–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavadino, M and Dignan, J (2006) Penal Systems - A Comparative Approach. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Centeno, MA and Cohen, JN (2012) The Arc of Neoliberalism. Annual Review of Sociology, 38(1): 317–340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clasen, J (2002) Unemployment and Unemployment Policy in Britain: Increasing Employability and Re-defining Citizenship. In Goul-Andersen, JG, Clasen, J, Halversen, K and van Oorschot, W (eds.), Europe’s New State Of Welfare: Unemployment, Employment Policies And Citizenship. Bristol: Policy Press, 59–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clasen, J (2005) Reforming European Welfare States: Germany and The United Kingdom Compared. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clift, B (2000) Is There a French ‘Third Way’? New Political Economy, 5(1): 135.Google Scholar
Crouch, C (2013) The Strange Non-Death of Neo-Liberalism. Cambridge: Polity.Google Scholar
Downes, D and Hansen, K (2006) Welfare and Punishment in Comparative Perspective. In Armstrong, S and McAra, L (eds.), Perspectives on Punishment. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 101–118.Google Scholar
Drinkwater, S and Jennings, C (2017) Expressive Voting and Two-Dimensional Political Competition: An Application to Law and Order Policy by New Labour in the UK. Constitutional Political Economy, 28(1): 79–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elbaum, M (2011) Économie Politique De La Protection Sociale. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esping-Andersen, G (1990) The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Cambridge: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Estrada, F (2004) The Transformation of the Politics of Crime in High Crime Societies. European Journal of Criminology, 1(4): 419–443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferrera, M (2013) Welfare-State Transformations: From Neo-Liberalism to Liberal Neo-Welfarism? In Thatcher, M and Schmidt, VA (eds.), Resilient Liberalism in Europe’s Political Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 77–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitzgerald, J, Curtis, KA and Corliss, CL (2012) Anxious Publics: Worries about Crime and Immigration. Comparative Political Studies, 45(4): 477–506.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garland, D (2001) The Culture of Control: Crime and Social Order in Contemporary Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giddens, A (2000) The Third Way and Its Critics. Cambridge: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Goertz, G and Mahoney, J (2012) A Tale of Two Cultures. Qualitative and Quantitative Research in The Social Sciences. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green-Pedersen, C (2019) The Reshaping of West European Party Politics: Agenda-Setting and Party Competition in Comparative Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, P and Soskice, D (ed.) (2001), Varieties of Capitalism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Häusermann, S, Picot, G and Geering, D (2013) Rethinking Party Politics and the Welfare State. British Journal of Political Science, 43(1): 221–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, D (1977) Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy. American Political Science Review, 71(4): 1467–1487.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, E and Stephens, JD (2001) Development and Crisis of the Welfare State. Chicago/London: Chicago University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huo, J (ed.) (2009) Third Way Reforms. Social Democracy after the Golden Age. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IAB (2017) Institut für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung: Gesamtfiskalische Kosten der Arbeitslosigkeit im Jahr 2015 in Deutschland, http://doku.iab.de/arbeitsmarktdaten/Kosten_ALO_2015.pdf (accessed 13 February 2020).Google Scholar
Inglehart, RF (2008) Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006. West European Politics, 31(1–2): 130–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, C, Arndt, C, Lee, S and Wenzelburger, G (2018) Policy Instruments and Welfare State Reform. Journal of European Social Policy, 28(2): 161–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, C and Wenzelburger, G (2020a) New Evidence on the Effect of Partisanship on the Welfare State. In Careja, R, Emmenegger, P and Giger, N (eds.), The European Social Model Under Pressure: Liber Amicorum in Honour of Klaus Armingeon. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 123–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, C and Wenzelburger, G (2020b) Reforming the Welfare State. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
JM NRW (2018) Ministerium der Justiz des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen: Gesamtkosten des Vollzuges, https://www.justiz.nrw.de/Gerichte_Behoerden/zahlen_fakten/statistiken/justizvollzug/kosten.pdf (accessed 13 February 2020).Google Scholar
Jones, BD and Baumgartner, FR (2005) The Politics of Attention: How Government Prioritizes Problems. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
King, G, Keohane, RO and Verba, S (1994) Designing Social Inquiry. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, H and Hellemans, S (1990) The Left-Right Semantics and the New Politics Cleavage. Comparative Political Studies, 23(2): 210–238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitschelt, H and Rehm, P (2016) Party Alignments: Change and Continuity. In Beramendi, P, Häusermann, S, Kitschelt, H and Kriesi, H (eds.), The Politics of Advanced Capitalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 179–201.Google Scholar
Kittel, B and Obinger, H (2003) Political Parties, Institutions, and the Dynamics of Social Expenditure in Times of Austerity. Journal of European Public Policy, 10(1): 20–45.Google Scholar
Knill, C and Tosun, J (2012) Public Policy. A New Introduction. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korpi, W (1983) The Democratic Class Struggle. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Korpi, W and Palme, J (2003) New Politics and Class Politics in the Context of Austerity and Globalization: Welfare State Regress in 18 Countries, 1975–1995. American Political Science Review, 97(3): 425–446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriesi, H, Grande, E, Lachat, R, Dolezal, M, Bonschier, S and Frey, T (2008) West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacey, N (2008) The Prisoners’ Dilemma. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lacey, N, Soskice, D and Hope, D (2018) Understanding the Determinants of Penal Policy: Crime, Culture, and Comparative Political Economy. Annual Review of Criminology, 1(1): 195–217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lappi-Seppälä, T (2008) Trust, Welfare, and Political Culture: Explaining Differences in National Penal Policies. Crime and Justice, 37(1): 313–387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, S, Jensen, C, Arndt, C and Wenzelburger, G (2020) Risky Business? Welfare State Reforms and Government Support in Britain and Denmark. British Journal of Political Science, 50(1): 165–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A (2012) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lohrenz, C (2014) Hollande Chooses ‘Third Way’ on Economy. Deutsche Welle.Google Scholar
Mayer, M (2010) Punishing the Poor—A debate. Theoretical Criminology, 14(1): 93–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medina-Ariza, J (2006) Politics of Crime in Spain, 1978–2004. Punishment & Society, 8(2): 183–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melossi, D (1987) Political Business Cycles and Imprisonment Rates in Italy: Report on a Work in Progress. Review of Black Political Economy, 16(1–2): 211–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merkel, W, Petring, A, Henkes, C and Egle, C (2008) Social Democracy in Power. The Capacity to Reform. Milton Park: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mucchielli, L (2010) Vers une criminologie d’État en France ? Institutions, acteurs et doctrines d’une nouvelle science policière. Politix, 89(1): 195–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newburn, T (2007) “Tough on Crime”: Penal Policy in England and Wales. Crime and Justice, 36(1): 425–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newburn, T and Reiner, R (2007) Crime and Penal Policy. In Seldon, A (ed.), Blair’s Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 318–340.Google Scholar
Norris, PA (2009) Families of Nations, Victimisation and Attitudes Towards Criminal Justice. International Review of Victimology, 16(3): 229–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palier, B (2005) Gouverner La Sécurité Sociale. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pantazis, C and Pemberton, S (2012) Reconfiguring Security and Liberty: Political Discourses and Public Opinion in the New Century. British Journal of Criminology, 52(3): 651–667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pierson, P (1994) Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment. Cambrigde: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pierson, P (2001) Coping with Permanent Austerity. Welfare State Restructuring in Affluent Democracies. In Pierson, P (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press, 410–456.Google Scholar
Piven, FF (2010) A Response to Wacquant. Theoretical Criminology, 14(1): 111–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Potrafke, N (2017) Partisan Politics: The Empirical Evidence from OECD Panel Studies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 45(4): 712–750.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roché, S (2012) Les politiques de sécurité intérieure. In de Maillard, J and Surel, Y (eds.), Les Politiques Publiques Sous Sarkozy. Paris: Presses de Sciences Po, 237–258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodríguez-Menés, J and López-Riba, J (2019) The Impact of the 2008 Economic Crisis on Imprisonment in Europe. European Journal of Criminology, Early View: 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rusche, G and Kirchheimer, O (1968) Punishment and Social Structure. New York: Russell & Russell.Google Scholar
Sartori, G (1976) Parties and Party Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Savage, L (2019) The Politics of Social Spending After the Great Recession: The Return of Partisan Policy Making. Governance, 32(1): 123–141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmidt, MG (1996) When Parties Matter: A Review of the Possibilities and Limits of Partisan Influence on Public Policy. European Journal of Political Research, 30(2): 155–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmitt, C (2016) Panel Data Analysis and Partisan Variables: How Periodization does Influence Partisan Effects. Journal of European Public Policy, 23(10): 1442–1459.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simmons, BA, Dobbin, F and Garrett, G (2006) Introduction: The International Diffusion of Liberalism. International Organization, 60(4): 781–810.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simon, J (2007) Governing Through Crime. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, G (1988) Between Left and Right: The Ambivalence of European Liberalism. In Kirchner, EJ (ed.), Liberal Parties in Western Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 16–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squires, P and Lea, J (eds.) (2012), Criminalisation and Advanced Marginality. Critically Exploring the Work of Loïc Wacquant. Bristol: Policy Press at the University of Bristol.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stenson, K and Edwards, A (2001) Rethinking Crime Control in Advanced Liberal Government: The ‘Third’ Way and the Return to the Local. In Stenson, K and Sullivan, RR (eds.), Crime, Risk and Justice. The Politics of Crime Control in Liberal Democracies. Portland: Willan Publishing, 68–86.Google Scholar
Stokes, SC (1999) Political Parties and Democracy. Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1): 243–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutton, JR (2000) Imprisonment and Social Classification in Five Common-Law Democracies, 1955–1985. American Journal of Sociology, 106(2): 350–386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutton, JR (2004) The Political Economy of Imprisonment in Affluent Western Democracies, 1960–1990. American Sociological Review, 69(2): 170–189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutton, JR (2010) Imprisonment and Opportunity Structures: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis. European Sociological Review, 28(1): 12–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutton, JR (2013) The Transformation of Prison Regimes in Late Capitalist Societies. American Journal of Sociology, 119(3): 715–746.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svallfors, S (2012) Welfare States and Welfare Attitudes. In Svallfors, S (ed.), Contested Welfare States. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, I, Walton, P and Young, J (1975) Critical Criminology in Britain: Review and Prospects. In Taylor, I, Walton, P and Young, J (eds.), Critical Criminology. London/Boston: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 6–62.Google Scholar
Tham, H (2001) Law and Order as a Leftist Project?: The Case of Sweden. Punishment & Society, 3(3): 409–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thelen, K (2014) Varieties of Liberalization and the New Politics of Social Solidarity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tonry, M (2007) Determinants of Penal Policies. In Tonry, M (ed.), Crime, Punishment, and Politics in Comparative Perspective. Chicago/London: University of Chicago Press, 1–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tonry, M (2015) Is Cross-National and Comparative Research on the Criminal Justice System Useful? European Journal of Criminology, 12(4): 505–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Kersbergen, K and Manow, P (eds.) (2009) Religion, Class Coalitions, and Welfare States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Beyme, K (1982) Parteien in Westlichen Demokratien. München: Piper.Google Scholar
Wacquant, L (2001) The Penalisation of Poverty and the rise of Neo-Liberalism. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 9(4): 401–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wacquant, L (2009a) Prisons of Poverty. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Wacquant, L (2009b) Punishing the Poor. The Neoliberal Government of Social Insecurity. Durham/London: Duke University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G (2015) Parties, Institutions and the Politics of Law and Order. British Journal of Political Science, 45(3): 663–687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G (2018) Political Economy or Political Systems? How Welfare Capitalism and Political Systems Affect Law and Order Policies in Twenty Western Industrialised Nations. Social Policy and Society, 17(2): 209–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G (2020) The Partisan Politics of Law and Order. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G, Arndt, C and Jensen, C (2018) Sozialstaatliche Kürzungspolitik in Deutschland: Nur eine Mär? Eine quantitative Gesetzgebungsanalyse 1974–2014, Politische Vierteljahresschrift.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G and Staff, H (2016) German Exceptionalism? An Empirical Analysis of 20 Years of Law and Order Legislation. Politics & Policy, 44(2): 319–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wenzelburger, G and Staff, H (2017) The ‘Third Way’ and the Politics of Law and Order: Explaining Differences in Law and Order Policies Between Blair’s New Labour and Schröder’s SPD. European Journal of Political Research, 56(3): 553–577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zohlnhöfer, R, Engler, F and Dümig, K (2017) The Retreat of the Interventionist State in Advanced Democracies. British Journal of Political Science, 48(2): 535–562.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Staff and Wenzelburger Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/H1S6B6
Link
Supplementary material: File

Staff and Wenzelburger supplementary material

Staff and Wenzelburger supplementary material

Download Staff and Wenzelburger supplementary material(File)
File 19.6 KB