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The characterisation of scoring functions

Part of: Foundations of probability theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 April 2009

Michael A. B. Deakin
Michael A. B. Deakin
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton Vic3168Australia e-mail:michael.deakin@sci.monash.edu.au
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Abstract

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The literature on subjective probabilities contains a number of functions that have been proposed as ‘scoring functions’. The principal requirement is that, with several events that may occur in the future and to which subjective ‘probabilities’ are assigned, the expected score given by these ‘probabilities’ will be extremised if the values assigned equal the ‘true probabilities’ of the various outcomes. This article discusses the question of what other scoring functions might be used (beyond those so far proposed).

MSC classification

Secondary: 60A99: None of the above, but in this section
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society , Volume 71 , Issue 1 , August 2001 , pp. 135 - 147
Copyright
Copyright © Australian Mathematical Society 2001

References

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