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Forecasting Aid to Families With Dependent Children Caseloads and Payments in Delaware

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

Richard F. Bieker
Richard F. Bieker*
Affiliation:
Delaware State College, Dover, Delaware
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The purpose of this paper is to present a model which was developed to forecast Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) caseloads and payments in Delaware. The model consists of a caseload equation, a paynlents equation and three labor market equations. The model, which was fitted statistically using quarterly data for the period 1958-1976, forecasts significantly better than trend type models. In addition, the model, unlike trend type models has the potential for forecasting turning points and can be used to simulate the impact of proposed policy changes.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 8 , Issue 1 , April 1979 , pp. 35 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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