No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
Strategy for Development of Systems Analytic Models – A Dairy Experience –
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 May 2017
Extract
As economists our greatest contribution to policymakers is likely to stem from our ability to make conditional forecasts—conditional forecasts of the outcome of specific possible or actual courses of action on the part of (1) government policymakers, (2) participants in the economy of interest, or (3) participants in other economies. But these conditional forecasts are not easy to come by, given the present state of the arts in our profession. In the first place, we do not yet have models which include parameter estimates in which we can place a great deal of confidence. Secondly, we do not at present have models which adequately encompass the vast number of relationships and constraints characteristic of a given economic system.
- Type
- Research Article
- Information
- Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 2 , Issue 2 , October 1973 , pp. 11 - 22
- Copyright
- Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association
References
1/ In this paper we use the term “policymakers” to refer to elected, appointed, or hired government officials whose charge it is to establish and/or recommend “government” policy with respect to the organization and operation of an economic system, as well as industry personnel whose charge it is to establish industry or firm policy. We often ignore the fact that there can be policy other than “government” policy and policymakers other than “government” policymakers.Google Scholar
2/ See C. C. Holt. “Quantitative Decision Analysis and National Policy: How Can We Bridge the Gap?” in B. G. Hickman (ed.). Quantitative Planning of Economic Policy. Brookings 1965, pp. 252–269.Google Scholar
3/ C. West Churchman. The Systems Approach. Dell. New York, 1968, p. vii.Google Scholar
4/ J. Tinbergen. On the Theory of Economic Policy. North-Holland, 1956. See also K. A. Fox, J. K. Sengupta, and E. Thorebecke. The Theory of Quantitative Economic Policy. North-Holland, 1966, Chapter 2.Google Scholar
5/ More specifically, there is a welfare function which has as arguments the target variables.Google Scholar
6/ We assume here that certain mathematical properties of the system necessary for a solution can be met (see Fox et. al. op. cit.).Google Scholar
7/ This list is not intended to be complete nor is it intended to imply any priorities.Google Scholar
8/ A. M. Geoffrion, J. S. Dyer, and A. Feinberg. “An Interactive Approach for Multi-Criterion Optimization, With an Application to the Operation of an Academic Department.” Management Science 19:4:357–368, Dec. 1972.Google Scholar
9/ Indeed we have often attached weights implicitly by omitting certain policy variables from consideration altogether.Google Scholar
10/ R. Frish. “Selection and Implementation: The Econometrics of the Future,” in Pontifica Academia Scientiarium. The Econometric Approach to Development Planning. Study Week held at Vatican City, October 1963. Rand McNally. 1965, pp. 1197–1204.Google Scholar
11/ Op. Cit.Google Scholar
12/ S. L. Louwes, J. C. G. Boot, and S. Wage. “A Quadratic Programming Approach to the Problem of Optimal Use of Milk in the Netherlands.” JFE 45:309–317, May 1963.Google Scholar
13/ C. J. Van Eijk and J. Sandee. “Quantitative Determination of an Optimum Economic Policy.” Econometrica 27:1–23, January 1959.Google Scholar
14/ G. Fromm and P. Taubman. Policy Simulations With An Econometric Model. Brookings 1968.Google Scholar
15/ Zvi Griliches. “The Brookings Model Volume: A Review Article,” Rev. Εcon. and Stat. 50:215–34, May 1968.Google Scholar
16/ A. N. Halter, M. L. Hayenga, and T. J. Manetsch. “Simulating a Developing Agricultural Economy: Methodology and Planning Capability,” AJAE 55:272–284, May 1970.Google Scholar
17/ J. T. Bonnen, J, Hildreth, G. Judge, G. Tolley, and H. Trelogan “Our Obsolete Data Systems: New Directions and Opportunities” AJAE 54:5:867–875, Dec. 1972.Google Scholar