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Structural Change in the New England Egg Industry: A Markov Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

S. P. Skinner ,
T. C. Lee  and
S. K. Seaver
S. P. Skinner
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maine, Orono, Maine
T. C. Lee
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut
S. K. Seaver
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut
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Extract

In recent years there has been a noticeable trend toward a small number of large farms and declining output in the Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire egg industries. This is partly due to increases in the costs of feed grains and freight rates [Skinner]. A significant change in farm income and cost after 1973 is also observed by Hwang. The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in the size distribution of egg farmers in this three-state region over time as a Markov process. Also, the occurrence of a marked structural change in the egg industry during the period 1967 to 1978 is statistically examined. We also seek answers to questions such as the following: how many years can different-size egg farms survive in the face of increasing feed and energy costs? What will be the size distribution of egg farms, total number of layers, and egg output in the next decade?

Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , October 1980 , pp. 41 - 46
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

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Footnotes

This is Scientific Contribution No. 818, Connecticut (Storrs) Agricultural Experiment Station. The research reported in this publication was supported in part by funds made available through the U.S.D.A. under the provisions of PL 89–106.

References

Anderson, T. W. and Goodman, L. A., “Statistical Inference About Markov Chains,” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 28(1957): 89–110.Google Scholar
Hwang, L. J., “An Econometric Analysis of New England Agriculture,” M.S. thesis, University of Connecticut, 1980.Google Scholar
Kemeny, J. G. and Snell, J. L., Finite Markov Chains, De van Nostrand Co., Inc., Princeton, N. J., 1960.Google Scholar
Skinner, S. P., “Production Response and Structural Change in the Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire Egg Industries Resulting From Adjustments in the Level of Freight Rates,” Ph.D. Thesis, University of Connecticut, 1979.Google Scholar
Stanton, B. F. and Kettunen, L., “Potential Entrants and Projections in Markov Process Analysis,” Journal of Farm Economics, 49(1967): 633–642.Google Scholar