This is an archival correction notice, documenting a correction previously made in May 2019.
The original version of Figure 2 showed forecasts for both answer options on binary questions, producing a pattern of forced symmetry relative to horizontal axis mid-point (0.50), i.e., data points above 0.50 were the mirror images of those below 0.50. The manuscript (Dana et al., Reference Dana, Atanasov, Tetlock and Mellers2019) has been updated with a figure based on data that only include forecasts on the first answer option for each question. We believe this version more informative as it avoids duplication of data points. In the updated figure, most points lie above the diagonal line, denoting a pattern of higher prices relative to the corresponding aggregated beliefs.
The original and corrected versions of Figure 2 appear below.
Original version:
Corrected version:
Open access
