How experts reason: the acquisition of experts' knowledge structures

Abstract

We were faced with a shelved knowledge system at a health insurance company. The system used Bayesian statistics. For correct computations such a system is of course well suited, but not for the people who use it: people do not easily formulate their expertise in numerical probabilities. We addressed the question of whether it is possible to find out in which format experts do represent their knowledge, and if so, what format that is. This representation might then replace the format of numerical probabilities in the knowledge system's interface, increasing its ease of use. We found one method that includes, apart from a technique to elicit knowledge contents, techniques to also acquire its format: Cognitive Structure Analysis. In this contribution we discuss this method, use it in two studies, and show that it yields valid results. It gives insight into the format of experts' knowledge structures; experts turn out to use mainly frame representations.