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Availability and Reliability of Statistics in Socialist Cuba (Part Two)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 October 2022

Carmelo Mesa-Lago
Carmelo Mesa-Lago*
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
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In this section a sample of interesting cases is provided to illustrate the problems involved when attempting to judge the reliability of Cuban statistics. The paper does not attempt to cover all the existing difficulties nor to offer final answers to some of the intriguing puzzles discussed. Yet the process of describing these statistical abnormalities occasionally clarifies the way in the search for truthful figures. The eight reconstructed tables included in this section do not have to be taken as absolutely reliable, but at least they offer a ten-year perspective (1957-66) of the most credible statistics available. The fact that this section has a negative approach should not lead the reader to the conclusion that all Cuban statistics are purposely misleading. Examples of accurate data are given when dealing with foreign trade, for instance. In some cases of erroneous data, the fault lies with the flaws in the system, including those detailed in the two previous sections. In other cases figures are deliberate misrepresentations. The author's ultimate objectives in this section are to alert the researcher to the frequent difficulties he will encounter when working with Cuban data, and to suggest criteria for selecting the more accurate figures from the Cuban statistical tangle.

Type
Topical Review
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , Summer 1969 , pp. 47 - 81
Copyright
Copyright © 1969, by Latin American Research Review

References

Notes

This is the second part of Professor Mesa-Lago's article. The first section appeared in LARR IV:1, pages 53-91.

156. Castro, “Speech on the Anniversary of the Revolution,” GWR, 10, January 8, 1967.

157. Reporte del Ministerio de Hacienda de Cuba (Mimeographed, La Habana, 1959), quoted by José Illán, former Under-Secretary of Finance of Cuba in 1959-60, Cuba: Facts and Figures, 17; Unión Panamericana, Indices de precios al consumidor (costo de vida) de las naciones americanas (Washington, D. C., 1959); ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1960, 402-434 (Geneva, 1960); and UN, Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963, 447 (New York, 1963).

158. “El desarrollo industrial de Cuba,” 150.

159. Guevara, “La planificación y sus problemas en lucha contra el imperialismo,” TFD, 6:24-25 (1963), Hoy, 5, August 21, 1963, and El Mundo, November 14, 1964.

160. Raúl Cepero Bonilla, “Los problemas de la agricultura en América Latina y la reforma agraria cubana,” CS, 3:17:89 (1963).

161. See my article “Ideological Radicalization and Economic Policy in Cuba,” Studies in Comparative International Development, 5:60 (1969-1970), table 4.

162. Castro, “Discurso en el sexto aniversario de la revolución,” Granma, January 2, 1965.

163. AAC, 22 (1962); and International Sugar Council, Statistical Bulletin (January 1966).

164. C. Czarnikow Ltd., “Cuban Statistics for 1966,” Sugar Review, 825:140 (1967), and “An Evaluation of Cuban Sugar Production,” Special Bulletin (November 2, 1967).

165. C. Czarnikow Ltd., “Cuban Annual Statistics,” Sugar Review, 826:105-106 (1968).

166. Merrill Lynch, Sugar Weekly Letter, 2 (November 10, 1967); and Economic Research Bureau, Inc., Economic Intelligence Report Cuba, 1:1:2-3 (1967).

167. Castro, “Discurso en el octavo aniversario de la Revolución,” Granma, January 2, 1967.

168. “La programación de la zafra …,” Granma, 3, November 17, 1966.

169. Quoted by Pelegrín Torrás, “La Conferencia de Punta del Este,” CS, 1:2:53ff (1961).

170. Orlando Borrego, “Informe sobre el plan perspectivo azucarero,” Hoy, October 14, 1964.

171. Castro, GWR, 4, March 24, 1968; and Borrego, “Radio Havana-Cuba,” May 22, 1968.

172. There is general agreement about this figure. See UN-SY (1960-66) and “Problemas de la producción tabacalera,” CS, 5:43:19ff (1965).

173. Ibid.

174. Adelfo Martín, “La producción tabacalera y los pequeños agricultores,” CS, 7:66:57 (1966); Pedro Santalla, Plenaria Provincial Tabacalera de Pinar del Río, “Radio Havana-Cuba,” October 31, 1966; and U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Production in Latin America (Washington, D. C., January 1967).

175. Mario García Incháustegui, “Informe ante la XIII Conferencia General de la FAO,” PEL, 307 (1967).

176. FAO 70 (1966); and García Valls, “Informe de la delegación Cubana al XI período de sesiones de CEPAL,” NIRE, 3:15:9 (1965).

177. Castro, “Speech on the Eleventh Anniversary …,” 4; and García Valls, 9.

178. FAO 98, 121 (1966); and Rodríguez, “Four Years of Agrarian Reform,” 217-218.

179. Rodríguez, 217; Cepero Bonilla, 76; and ECLA, 270 (1963).

180. Cepero Bonilla, 91; Rodríguez “Cuba en la Conferencia de la FAO,” 22.

181. “El desarrollo industrial de Cuba,” 173; and Castro, “Speech at the Ninth Anniversary of the Revolution,” 3.

182. FAO, 33-342, 390 (1966); ECLA (1963); CC (1962); and Rodríguez, “Cuba en la Conferencia de la FAO,” 25.

183. Juan F. Noyola, “La Revolución Cubana y sus efectos en el desarrollo económico,” El Trimestre Económico 28:111:418 (1961).

184. Boti, “Primera Reunión Nacional de Producción,” and “El Plan de Desarrollo Económico de 1962,” 32.

185. Guevara, Revolución, February 27, 1961.

186. Bettelheim, “Modelo esquemático del plan 1962-65 …,” quoted by Seers, 328-329.

187. Radoslav Selucki, Literani noviny, August 8, 1964, translated by East Europe, 13:10:22 (1964).

188. Prerevolutionary figures from RBNC (1959) and Memoria (1958). Statistics since 1959 are fairly consistent. See UN-SY 144 (1966), ECLA 286 (1963), 344 (1965); and “Electrificación y desarrollo económico,” 126.

189. Pernas, “Bagazo: linea potencial de desarrollo,” 67-70.

190. Banco Nacional de Cuba, 25, Programa de desarrollo económico (La Habana, undated). See also CERP, Study on Cuba, 565-566, and Newman, 72-74.

191. CEF (1959), as quoted by CERP, Study on Cuba, 567; Martínez, “El plan de la economía nacional para 1964,” 17 and UN-SY, 275 (1966).

192. “CMQ Radio,” January 31, 1963, and “Hacia una mejor calidad de los artículos de consumo,” 127.

193. “Problemas de la producción tabacalera,” 119-120; Lugo, “La industria del tabaco torcido y sus perspectivas,” 58, 65.

194. Lower figures for imports and the negative trade balance than those shown in Table 5 for 1960-62 were given in “La experiencia de Cuba en comercio exterior,” 110, and reproduced by Boorstein, 130. PEL (1966-1967) corrected previous figures.

195. Valtr Komarek, Hospodarske noviny (Prague), 33:10 (1967).

196. For a detailed study of this matter see the author's Unemployment in Socialist Countries, 345-480.

197. “La historia me absolverá,” Pensamiento politico, económico y social de Fidel Castro, 38 (La Habana: 1959).

198. Roca, “El camino del socialismo,” CS, 1:1:7ff (1961); Dorticós, Revolución, December 30, 1961, and Hispanic American Report, 16:1:35 (1963); Ministerio del Trabajo, Primer estudio provisional del balance de recursos de trabajo; and Ministry of Foreign Relations, Profile of Cuba.

199. The survey on social attitudes conducted in Cuba by Hadley Cantrill (1965: 123-130) at the time of the labor census indicated that unemployment was a serious worry of the Cuban population. According to the survey, 23 per cent of the people cited employment as the most impelling personal urge, and 22 per cent showed personal worries about unemployment. Almost one-third of the respondents named full employment as the first aspiration of the country.

200. El Mundo, May 5, 1962.

201. “CMQ Radio,” December 20, 1962.

202. José Machado Ventura, Informe sobre la salud pública en Cuba, “Radio Havana-Cuba,” December 30, 1962; and Dorticós, “Discurso en la inauguración del Décimo Congreso Médico Nacional,” El Mundo, February 19, 1963.

203. Gregorio Ortega, “La 47ma. Reunión de la Organización Internacional del Trabajo,” Trabajo, 1:12:13 (1963).

204. Daniel Alonso, Hoy, September 4, 1964; “La salud pública a los seis años de la Revolución,” Hoy, January 2, 1965; and Eliodoro Martínez Junco, “The Minister of Public Health Speaks …,” GWR, 6, June 30, 1968.

205. Juan Marinello, El Mundo, August 19, 1962; and Machado Ventura, El Mundo, September 7, 1962.

206. “Sabin Impressed by Cuba's Gains in Education and Health,” GWR, 8, December 24, 1967.

207. “Radio Progreso” and “CMQ Radio,” March 18, 1963.

208. Castro, Discurso de clausura del Congreso Nacional de Constructores, “Radio Havana-Cuba,” October 26, 1964.

209. Castro, Discurso en el quinto aniversario de la fundación de los CDR, “Radio Havana-Cuba,” September 28, 1965.

210. Castro, “Speech at the Inauguration of a New Community of 120 Homes,” GWR, 2, January 14, 1968.