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ELITE POLARIZATION AND THE ELECTORAL IMPACT OF LEFT-RIGHT PLACEMENTS: Evidence from Latin America, 1995-2009

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Matthew Singer
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Abstract

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While political polarization may lead to gridlock and other negative policy outcomes, representation is likely to be enhanced when parties differentiate themselves from each other and make it easier for voters to see the connection between their personal ideologies and the electoral offerings. These differences between parties may be especially important in developing democracies, where voters are still learning parties' priorities and where parties do not always emphasize issues when campaigning. To test this proposition, I develop a measure of elite polarization in Latin America since the early 1990s based on legislative surveys. Individual-level voting patterns from mass survey data confirm that the connection between voters' self-placement on the left-right scale and their electoral choice is stronger in polarized party systems, even when controlling for other party system factors like the age of the party system or electoral fragmentation. This effect on voting behavior is not immediate, however, as voters take time to recognize the new cues being provided by the changing party system.

Resumen

RESUMEN

Mientras que la polarización política puede conducir a parálisis en el Congreso y otros resultados negativos, muestro que la representación política tiene mayores probabilidades de mejorar cuando los partidos se diferencian unos de otros. Esta diferenciación facilita que los votantes vean las conexiones entre sus ideologías políticas personales y la oferta electoral disponible. Las diferencias entre partidos pueden ser especialmente importantes en las democracias en desarrollo, donde los votantes todavía están aprendiendo sobre las prioridades de los partidos e identificando cuando estos no enfatizan cuestiones programáticas al hacer campaña. Para probar esta proposición, este trabajo desarrolla una medida de polarización en América Latina desde la década de 1990 basada en encuestas legislativas. Encuestas de opinión púbica confirman que la conexión entre la auto identificación personal del votante en un espectro ideológico de derecha a izquierda y su voto son más fuertes cuando se experimenta una polarización en el sistema de partidos políticos. Esto sucede aun controlando por otros factores como la edad del sistema de partidos o la fragmentación electoral. Pero este efecto sobre el comportamiento electoral no es inmediato, pues los votantes se llevan un tiempo en reconocer los atajos de información que el sistema de partidos en constante proceso de cambio les proporciona.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 51 , Issue 2 , 2016 , pp. 174 - 194
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by the University of Texas Press

Footnotes

I thank Ryan Carlin, Russell Dalton, and Elizabeth Zechmeister for their comments on previous drafts of the article, and the collectors of the elite surveys used here for making their data available. All interpretations of that data and errors are my responsibility.

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