Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T10:01:30.279Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Inflation and Insouciance: The Peculiar Brazilian Game

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 October 2022

Leslie Elliott Armijo*
Affiliation:
Northeastern University
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The politics of inflation typically have been cast as reflecting an underlying “collective-action problem,” in which actions that would benefit the entire group are irrational from the viewpoint of each individual. Everyone would be better off without inflation. But in the absence of a mechanism that would permit social groups such as workers and owners to construct a lasting bargain, each group finds itself structurally obliged to push for higher money incomes, even if each one knows that any temporary gains in real income will be inflated away. Brazilian inflation has been described in these terms (Franco 1989). This article will suggest instead that the attitudes of one key Brazilian social group may be better understood as a case of “rent seeking.” In other countries, financial capital as a net-creditor sector opposes inflation. But because of Brazil's unique set of financial regulations, Brazilian bankers and upper-income investors have reaped substantial economic benefits from inflation in recent decades. Although they might prefer as citizens to have lower inflation, their rational economic interests give them few strong reasons to make sacrifices in the interest of solving society's “collective-action problem.” Because not all important actors desire stabilization, bringing prices down becomes intrinsically more difficult than if the problem were simply one of finding a means of overcoming mutual distrust to reach a cooperative solution.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 by the University of Texas Press

Footnotes

My gratitude for helpful and challenging comments goes to Joana Andrade, Luiz Carlos Bresser Pereira, Wilbur Chaffee, Philippe Faucher, Jeffrey Frieden, Jonathan Hartlyn, Barbara Lewis, Abraham Lowenthal, Ary César Minella, Kaizad Mistry, Walter Molano, Walter Ness, Kurt Weyland, Alvaro Antônio Zini, and three highly conscientious anonymous LARR reviewers. I thank Maurício Lima for research assistance.

References

ABRANCHES, SERGIO H. HUDSON DE 1978The Divided Leviathan: State and Economic Policy Formation in Authoritarian Brazil.” Ph.D. diss., Cornell University.Google Scholar
ALESINA, ALBERTO, AND DRAZEN, ALLAN 1991Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?American Economic Review 81, no. 5 (Dec.): 1170–88.Google Scholar
ARCE M., DANIEL G. 1994Fiscal Policy and the Theory of Conflict Inflation.” The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 62, no. 4:425–37.Google Scholar
ARMIJO, LESLIE ELLIOTT 1993Brazilian Politics and Patterns of Financial Regulation, 1950–1991.” In The Politics of Finance in Developing Countries, edited by Haggard, Stephan, Lee, Chung, and Maxfield, Sylvia, 259–90. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
ARMIJO, LESLIE ELLIOTT, BIERSTEKER, THOMAS J., AND LOWENTHAL, ABRAHAM F. 1994The Problems of Simultaneous Transitions.” Journal of Democracy 5, no. 4 (Oct.): 161–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BACHA, EDMAR LISBOA, AND LAMONIER, BOLIVAR 1993Redemocratization and the Impasse of Economic Reform in Brazil.” Paper presented to the Overseas Development Council conference “Interactions between Market-Oriented Economic Reform and Democratic Consolidation,” Washington, D.C., 8–9 March.Google Scholar
BAER, WERNER, AND BECKERMAN, PAUL 1974Indexing in Brazil.” World Development 2, nos. 10–12 (Oct.):3548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BAER, WERNER, AND BECKERMAN, PAUL 1980The Trouble with Index-Linking: Reflections on the Brazilian Experience.” World Development 8, no. 9 (Sept.):677704.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BAER, WERNER, AND VILLELA, ANNIBAL V. 1992Privatization and the Changing Role of the State in Brazil.” Paper presented to the Latin American Studies Association, Los Angeles, 24–27 September.Google Scholar
BARKER, WENDY JOAN 1990Banks and Industry in Contemporary Brazil: Their Organization, Relationship, and Leader.” Ph.D. diss., Yale University.Google Scholar
BATES, ROBERT H., ED. 1988 Toward a Political Economy of Development: A Rational Choice Perspective. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
BRAGA, JOSE CARLOS 1987Questões sobre a crise do capitalismo tardio.” In-house document, Instituto de Economia do Setor Público (IESP), Fundação do Desenvolvimento Administrativo (FUNDAP), Governo do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo.Google Scholar
BRESSER PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS 1987aChanging Patterns of Financing Investment in Brazil.” Bulletin of Latin American Research 6, no. 2:233–48.Google Scholar
BRESSER PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS 1987bInertial Inflation and the Cruzado Plan.” World Development 15, no. 8:1035–44.Google Scholar
BRESSER PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS 1993 “Economic Reforms and Economic Growth: Efficiency and Politics in Latin America.” In Bresser Pereira, José Maria Maravall, and Adam Przeworski, Economic Reforms in New Democracies: A Social-Democratic Approach, 1576. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
CARDOSO, ELIANA A., AND FISHLOW, ALBERT 1989The Macroeconomics of the Brazilian External Debt.” In Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, edited by Sachs, Jeffrey D., 8199. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
COLLIER, DAVID, ED. 1979 The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
CEPAL (COMISION ECONOMICA PARA AMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE)/ECLAC (ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN) 1991Preliminary Overview of the Latin American and Caribbean Economy.” Notas sobre la economia y el desarrollo, nos. 519–20:156.Google Scholar
CEPAL (COMISION ECONOMICA PARA AMERICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE)/ECLAC (ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN) 1993 Preliminary Overview of the Economy of Latin America and the Caribbean 1993. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
DAVIDOFF CRUZ, PAULO 1983 “Notas sobre o endividamento externo brasileiro no anos setenta.” In Desenvolvimento capitalista no Brasil, edited by Luiz Gonzaga M. Beluzzo and Renata Coutinho, 2:59106. São Paulo: Brasiliense.Google Scholar
DE CASTRO, STEVE 1991Removing Inflation in a Macroeconomic Game of Conflict over the Distribution, without the Use of a Social Pact.” ANAIS do ANPEC 1:4448 (published in Curitiba, Paraná).Google Scholar
DI TELLA, TORCUATO S. 1966Populism and Reform in Latin America.” In Obstacles to Change in Latin America, edited by Véliz, Claudio, 4774. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
EVANS, PETER B. 1979 Dependent Development: The Alliance of Multinational, State, and Local Capital in Brazil. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FAUCHER, PHILIPPE 1994Repeated Failures and Ungovernability: What Is Wrong with Brazil?” Paper presented to the Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, Georgia, 10–12 March.Google Scholar
FISHLOW, ALBERT 1989A Tale of Two Presidents: The Political Economy of Crisis Management.” In Democratizing Brasil: Problems of Transition and Consolidation, edited by Stepan, Albert, 83119. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
FRAGA, ARMINIO, AND WERLANG, S. 1983Uma visão da inflação como conflicto distributivo.” Revista Brasileira de Economia 37, no. 3 (July–Sept.):361–67Google Scholar
FRANCO, GUSTAVO H. B. 1989Inércia e coordenação: Pactos, congelamentos e seus problemas.” Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico 19, no. 1 (Apr.):6584 (published in Rio de Janeiro).Google Scholar
FRIEDEN, JEFFREY A. 1991 Debt, Development, and Democracy: Modem Political Economy and Latin America, 1965–1985. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
GLEIZER, DANIEL LUIZ 1991Government, Financial Systems, and Economic Development: Brazil.” Paper presented at the conference “Government, Financial Systems, and Economic Development,” held at the East-West Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, November.Google Scholar
HAGOPIAN, FRANCES 1992The Compromised Consolidation: The Political Class in the Brazilian Transition.” In Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective, edited by Mainwaring, Scott, O'Donnell, Guillermo, and Valenzuela, Samuel, 243–93. Notre Dame, Ind.: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
HANSON, JOHN LLOYD 1977 Dictionary of Economics and Commerce. 5th ed. Plymouth, Engl.: Macdonald and Evans.Google Scholar
HEWLETT, SYLVIA ANN 1980 The Cruel Dilemmas of Development. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
HIRSCH, FRED, AND GOLDTHORPE, JOHN, EDS. 1978 The Political Economy of Inflation. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
HIRSCHMAN, ALBERT O. 1981aExit, Voice, and Loyalty: Further Reflections and a Survey of Recent Contributions.” In Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
HIRSCHMAN, ALBERT O. 1981bThe Social and Political Matrix of Inflation: Elaborations on the Latin American Experience.” In Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond, edited by Hirschman, Albert O., 177208. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IANNI, OCTAVIO 1975 A formação do estado populista na América Latina. Rio de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira.Google Scholar
KANDIR, ANTONIO 1989 A dinâmica da inflação. São Paulo: Livraria Nobel.Google Scholar
KRUEGER, ANNE O. 1974The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society.” American Economic Review 64, no. 3 (June):291303.Google Scholar
LABAN, RAUL, AND STURZENEGGER, FEDERICO 1992Fiscal Conservatism as a Response to the Debt Crises.” In-house document, Department of Economics, University of California at Los Angeles.Google Scholar
LEES, FRANCIS A., BOTTS, J. M., AND CYSNE, R. P. 1990 Banking and Financial Deepening in Brazil. New York: St. Martin's.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LINDBERG, LEON N., AND MAIER, CHARLES S., EDS. 1985 The Politics of Inflation and Economic Stagnation. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
MACEDO, ROBERTO, AND BARBOSA, FABIO 1995Brasil: Instabilidade e políticas macroeconômicas.” In A economia brasileira: Estrutura e desempenho, edited by Willumsen, Maria José and Eduardo Gianetti da, Fonseca, 126. Miami: North-South Center, University of Miami.Google Scholar
MAIER, CHARLES 1978The Politics of Inflation in the Twentieth Century.” In HIRSCH AND GOLDTHORPE 1978.Google Scholar
MAKLER, HARRY M. 1985Financial Conglomerates in Brazil: The Case of the Sorcerer's Apprentice?” Paper presented at the workshop “Impact of the Current Economic Crisis on the Social and Political Structure of NICs,” São Paulo, February.Google Scholar
MARTINS, LUCIANO 1985 Estado capitalista e burocracia no Brasil pós-64. Rio de Janeiro: Paz e Terra.Google Scholar
MAXFIELD, SYLVIA 1991Bankers' Alliances and Economic Policy Patterns: Evidence from Mexico and Brazil.” Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 4 (Jan.):419–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MINELLA, ARY CESAR 1990Transformação dos setores sociais dominantes: A burguesia bancário financeira no Brasil.” In Classes e movimentos sociais na América Latina, edited by Larangeira, Sônia, 83106. São Paulo: Hucitec.Google Scholar
MOURA DA SILVA, ADROALDO 1980 Intermediação financeira no Brasil. São Paulo: Universidade de São Paulo and FIPE.Google Scholar
NESS, WALTER LEE 1994Bank Stability in Economic Instability.” Paper presented to the Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, Georgia, 10–12 March.Google Scholar
O'DONNELL, GUILLERMO A. 1973 Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics. Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California.Google Scholar
OLIVEIRA, GESNER 1993 Brasil-FMI: Frustrações e perspectivas. São Paulo: Bienal.Google Scholar
OLSEN, MANCUR 1965 The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
PRZEWORSKI, ADAM 1991 Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
STEIN, ARTHUR A. 1990 Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
SNYDER, GLENN H. 1971 “‘Prisoner's Dilemma’ and ‘Chicken’ Models in International Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 15 (Mar.).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
STURZENEGGER, FEDERICO 1995Inflation and the Delay of Stabilizations.” In Conversations on Democratization and Economic Reform: Working Papers of the Southern California Seminar, edited by Armijo, Leslie E. Miami: North-South Center, University of Miami.Google Scholar
TYLER, WILLIAM 1983 The Brazilian Industrial Economy. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
VILLELA, ANNIBAL, AND BAER, WERNER 1980 O setor privado nacional: Problemas e políticas para seu fortalecimento. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA and INPES.Google Scholar
WEFFORT, FRANCISCO C. 1970State and Mass in Brazil.” In Masses in Latin America, edited by Horowitz, Irving Louis. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
WELCH, JOHN H. 1988Capital Markets in the Development Process: The Case of Brazil.” Ph.D. diss., University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Google Scholar
WERNEKE VIANNA, MARIA LUCIA T. 1987 A administração do milagre: O Conselho Monetário Nacional, 1964–1974. Petrópolis: Vozes.Google Scholar
WEYLAND, KURT 1994The Decline of the Developmental State in Brazil: A Neo-Statist Interpretation.” Paper presented to the Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, Georgia, 10–12 March.Google Scholar
WHITEHEAD, LAURENCE 1989Democratization and Disinflation: A Comparative Approach.” In Fragile Coalitions: The Politics of Economic Adjustment, edited by Nelson, Joan M. Washington, D.C.: Overseas Development Council.Google Scholar
WORLD BANK 1988Part II: Public Finance in Development.” In World Development Report 1988. New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank.Google Scholar
WORLD BANK 1993a Trends in Developing Economies, Extracts: Volume 2. Emerging Capital Markets. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.Google Scholar
WORLD BANK 1993b World Development Report 1993. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
ZINI, ALVARO ANTONIO, JUNIOR, 1992Monetary Reform, State Intervention, and the Collor Plan.” In The Market and the State in Economic Development in the 1990s, edited by Zini, A. A. Oxford: Elsevier Science Publishers.Google Scholar