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Deterrence and Subjective Probabilities of Arrest: Modeling Individual Decisions to Drink and Drive in Sweden

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2024

Perry Shapiro  and
Harold L. Votey Jr.
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Abstract

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Illegal behavior responding to subjective probabilities of arrest and consequent costs is modeled within a framework of individual choice under uncertainty. The model is formulated for the case of driving while intoxicated and tested with data that include all arrests for drunken driving in Sweden from 1976-1979. Results indicate that an arrest experience reduces the probability that a person will drive while drunk. The results suggest that an arrest increases a person's perceived probability of arrest and/or the unpleasantness of an arrest and thus leads to a reduced chance of acting illegally.

Type
Research Article
Information
Law & Society Review , Volume 18 , Issue 4 , 1984 , pp. 583 - 604
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 The Law and Society Association

Footnotes

*

This paper has benefited from presentations at the Annual Meetings of the Law and Society Association, Denver (1983), the Crime Control Theory Conference, Carnegie-Mellon University (1983), and the Law and Society Workshop, U.C. Berkeley. We are particularly indebted to Richard Berk, Jacqueline Cohen, Samuel L. Myers, Jr., Llad Phillips, and Daniel Rubinfeld for constructive comments and to the editor and referees for extraordinary help in the development of this paper. The research has been made possible by support from the (Swedish) National Council for Crime Prevention, the (U.S.) National Institute of Justice, and the National Science Foundation's Law and Social Science Program. In addition, a large number of individuals and organizations have helped in the acquisition of the Swedish data. Of particular help in that connection have been Goran Hedström, Torbjörn Israelson, Eckart Kühlhorn, Ernst Nilsson, Peter Simon, and Henrik Thorn.

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