Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T12:49:14.917Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate change refugia: landscape, stand and tree-scale microclimates in epiphyte community composition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 March 2021

Christopher J. Ellis Open the ORCID record for Christopher J. Ellis [Opens in a new window]  and
Sally Eaton
Christopher J. Ellis*
Affiliation:
Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh, EH3 5LR, UK
Sally Eaton
Affiliation:
Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, 20A Inverleith Row, Edinburgh, EH3 5LR, UK
*
Author for correspondence: Christopher Ellis. E-mail: c.ellis@rbge.org.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

There is growing evidence that species and communities are responding to, and will continue to be affected by, climate change. For species at risk, vulnerability can be reduced by ensuring that their habitat is extensive, connected and provides opportunities for dispersal and/or gene flow, facilitating a biological response through migration or adaptation. For woodland epiphytes, vulnerability might also be reduced by ensuring sufficient habitat heterogeneity, so that microhabitats provide suitable local microclimates, even as the larger scale climate continues to change (i.e. microrefugia). This study used fuzzy set ordination to compare bryophyte and lichen epiphyte community composition to a large-scale gradient from an oceanic to a relatively more continental macroclimate. The residuals from this relationship identified microhabitats in which species composition reflected a climate that was more oceanic or more continental than would be expected given the prevailing macroclimate. Comparing these residuals to features that operate at different scales to create the microclimate (landscape, stand and tree-scale), it was possible to identify how one might engineer microrefugia into existing or new woodland, in order to reduce epiphyte vulnerability to climate change. Multimodel inference was used to identify the most important features for consideration, which included local effects such as height on the bole, angle of bole lean and bark water holding capacity, as well as tree species and tree age, and within the landscape, topographic wetness and physical exposure.

Keywords

bark water holding capacityfuzzy set ordinationlichensmicrorefugiamultimodel inferencetopographic wetness indexwoodland management
Type
Standard Papers
Information
The Lichenologist , Volume 53 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 135 - 148
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the British Lichen Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alaback, PB (1991) Comparative ecology of temperate rainforests of the Americas along analogous climatic gradients. Revista Chilena de Historia Natural 64, 399–412.Google Scholar
Allen, JL and Lendemer, JC (2016) Climate change impacts on endemic, high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot. Biodiversity and Conservation 25, 555–568.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atlantic Woodland Alliance (2019) The State of Scotland's Rainforest. Perth: Woodland Trust Scotland.Google Scholar
Anon (2006) The Scottish Forestry Strategy. Edinburgh: Forestry Commission Scotland.Google Scholar
Anon (2019) Scotland's Forestry Strategy: 2019–2029. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government.Google Scholar
Antoine, ME and McCune, B (2004) Contrasting fundamental and realized ecological niches with epiphytic lichen transplants in an old-growth Pseudotsuga forest. Bryologist 107, 163–173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Averis, A, Averis, B, Birks, J, Horsfield, D, Thompson, D and Yeo, M (2004) An Illustrated Guide to British Upland Vegetation. Peterborough: Joint Nature Conservation Committee.Google Scholar
Baarda, P (2005) Atlantic oakwoods in Great Britain: factors influencing their definition, distribution and occurrence. Botanical Journal of Scotland 57, 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bain, C (2015) The Rainforests of Britain and Ireland. Dingwall: Sandstone Press Ltd.Google Scholar
Barkman, JJ (1958) Phytosociology and Ecology of Cryptogamic Epiphytes. Assen: Van Corcum & Comp. N.V.Google Scholar
Bartón, K (2019 ) Mu-MIn: multi-model inference, R package version 1.43.15. [WWW resource] URL https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MuMIn/MuMIn.pdf.Google Scholar
Bates, JW (1992) Influence of chemical and site factors on Quercus and Fraxinus epiphytes at Loch Sunart, western Scotland: a multivariate analysis. Journal of Ecology 80, 163–179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Belinchón, R, Martínez, I, Otálora, MAG, Aragón, G, Dimas, J and Escudero, A (2009) Fragment quality and matrix affect epiphytic performance in a Mediterranean forest landscape. American Journal of Botany 96, 1974–1982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beven, KJ and Kirkby, MJ (1979) A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin 24, 1–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bidussi, M, Goward, T and Gauslaa, Y (2013) Growth and secondary compound investments in the epiphytic lichens Lobaria pulmonaria and Hypogymnia occidentalis transplanted along an altitudinal gradient in British Columbia. Botany 91, 621–630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binder, MD and Ellis, CJ (2008) Conservation of the rare British lichen Vulpicida pinastri: changing climate, habitat loss and strategies for mitigation. Lichenologist 40, 63–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyce, RL and Ellison, PC (2001) Choosing the best similarity index when performing fuzzy set ordination on binary data. Journal of Vegetation Science 12, 711–720.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brito-Morales, I, Molinos, JG, Schoeman, DS, Burrows, MT, Poloczanska, ES, Brown, CJ, Simon Ferrier, S, Harwood, TD, Klein, CJ, McDonald-Madden, E, et al. (2018) Climate velocity can inform conservation in a warming world. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 33, 441–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Čabrajić, AJ (2009) Modeling lichen performance in relation to climate - scaling from thalli to landscapes. Ph.D. thesis, Umeå Universitet.Google Scholar
Chen, I-C, Hill, JK, Ohlemüller, R, Roy, DB and Thomas, CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024–1026.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chen, J and Franklin, JF (1997) Growing-season microclimate variability within an old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Climate Research 8, 21–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collingham, YC and Huntley, B (2000) Impacts of habitat fragmentation and patch size upon migration rates. Ecological Applications 10, 131–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppins, BJ and Coppins, AM (2005) Lichens – the biodiversity value of western woodlands. Botanical Journal of Scotland 57, 141–153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppins, S and Coppins, BJ (2012) Atlantic Hazel. Scotland's Special Woodlands. Kilmartin: Atlantic Hazel Action Group.Google Scholar
Corsie, I, Harrold, P and Yahr, R (2019) No combination of morphological, ecological or chemical characters can reliably diagnose species in the Parmelia saxatilis aggregate in Scotland. Lichenologist 51, 107–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coxson, DS and Stevenson, SK (2007) Growth rate responses of Lobaria pulmonaria to canopy structure in even-aged and old-growth cedar-hemlock forests of central-interior British Columbia, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management 242, 5–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DellaSala, DA (2011) Temperate and Boreal Rainforests of the World: Ecology and Conservation. Washington: Island Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Devkota, S, Dymytrova, L, Chaudhary, RP, Werth, S and Scheidegger, C (2019) Climate change-induced range shift of the endemic epiphytic lichen Lobaria pindarensis in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Lichenologist 51, 157–173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diffenbaugh, NS and Field, CB (2013) Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions. Science 341, 486–492.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dobrowski, SZ (2010) A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate. Global Change Biology 17, 1022–1035.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doering, M and Coxson, D (2010) Riparian alder ecosystems as epiphytic lichen refugia in sub-boreal spruce forests of British Columbia. Botany 88, 144–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Domaschke, S, Vivas, M, Sancho, LG and Printzen, C (2013) Ecophysiology and genetic structure of polar versus temperature populations of the lichen Cetraria aculeata. Oecologia 173, 699–709.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dufrêne, M and Legendre, P (1997) Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymmetrical approach. Ecological Monographs 67, 345–366.Google Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2012) Lichen epiphyte diversity: a species, community and trait-based review. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 14, 131–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2013) A risk-based model of climate change threat: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in the ecology of lichen epiphytes. Botany 91, 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2015) Ancient woodland indicators signal the climate change risk for dispersal-limited species. Ecological Indicators 53, 106–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2016) Oceanic and temperate rainforest climates and their epiphyte indicators in Britain. Ecological Indicators 70, 125–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2017) When is translocation required for the population recovery of old-growth epiphytes in a reforested landscape? Restoration Ecology 25, 922–932.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2018) A mechanistic model of climate change risk: growth rates and microhabitat specificity for conservation priority woodland epiphytes. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 32, 38–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2019 a) Climate change, bioclimatic models and the risk to lichen diversity. Diversity 11, 54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2019 b) Interactions of climate and solar irradiance can reverse the bioclimatic response of poikilohydric species: an experimental test for Flavoparmelia caperata. Bryologist 122, 98–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ (2020) Microclimatic refugia in riparian woodland: a climate change adaptation strategy. Forest Ecology and Management 462, 118006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ and Coppins, BJ (2007) Reproductive strategy and the compositional dynamics of crustose lichen communities on aspen (Populus tremula L.) in Scotland. Lichenologist 39, 377–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ and Eaton, S (2016) Future non-analogue climates for Scotland's temperate rainforest. Scottish Geographical Journal 132, 257–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ and Eaton, S (2018) The biogeography of climate change risk for Scotland's woodland biodiversity: epiphytes. Scottish Geographical Journal 134, 257–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ, Coppins, BJ and Dawson, TP (2007 a) Predicted response of the lichen epiphyte Lecanora populicola to climate change scenarios in a clean-air region of northern Britain. Biological Conservation 135, 396–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ, Coppins, BJ, Dawson, TP and Seaward, MRD (2007 b) Response of British lichens to climate change scenarios: trends and uncertainties in the projected impact for contrasting biogeographic groups. Biological Conservation 140, 217–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ, Eaton, S, Theodoropoulos, M, Coppins, BJ, Seaward, MRD and Simkin, J (2014) Response of epiphytic lichens to 21st century climate change and tree disease scenarios. Biological Conservation 180, 153–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, CJ, Eaton, S, Theodoropoulos, M and Elliott, K (2015 a) Epiphyte Communities and Indicator Species. An Ecological Guide for Scotland's Woodlands. Edinburgh: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh.Google Scholar
Ellis, CJ, Eaton, S, Theodoropoulos, M, Coppins, BJ, Seaward, MRD and Simkin, J (2015 b) Lichen Epiphyte Scenarios. A Toolkit of Climate and Woodland Change for the 21st Century. Edinburgh: Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh.Google Scholar
Englund, SR, O'Brien, JJ and Clark, DB (2000) Evaluation of digital and film hemispherical photography and spherical densiometry for measuring forest light environments. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 30, 1999–2005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fačkovcová, Z, Senko, D, Svitok, M and Guttová, A (2017) Ecological niche conservatism shapes the distributions of lichens: geographical segregation does not reflect ecological differentiation. Presalia 89, 63–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernández-Mendoza, F, Domaschke, S, García, MA, Jordan, P, Martín, MP and Printzen, C (2011) Population structure of mycobionts and photobionts of the widespread lichen Cetraria aculeata. Molecular Ecology 20, 1208–1232.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fritz, O, Brunet, J and Caldiz, M (2009) Interacting effects of tree characteristics on the occurrence of rare epiphytes in a Swedish boreal forest. Bryologist 112, 488–505.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gauslaa, Y and Coxson, D (2011) Interspecific and intraspecific variations in water storage in epiphytic old forest foliose lichens. Botany 89, 787–798.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gauslaa, Y and Goward, T (2012) Relative growth rates of two epiphytic lichens, Lobaria pulmonaria and Hypogymnia occidentalis, transplanted within and outside of Populus dripzones. Botany 90, 954–965.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gauslaa, Y, Lie, M, Solhaug, KA and Ohlson, M (2006) Growth and ecophysiological acclimation of the foliose lichen Lobaria pulmonaria in forests with contrasting light climates. Oecologia 147, 406–416.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gauslaa, Y, Palmqvist, K, Solhaug, KA, Holien, H, Hilmo, O, Nybakken, L, Myhre, LC and Ohlson, M (2007) Growth of epiphytic old forest lichens across climatic and successional gradients. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37, 1832–1845.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gauslaa, Y, Palmqvist, K, Solhaug, KA, Holien, H, Nybakken, L and Ohlson, M (2009) Size-dependent growth of two old-growth associated macrolichen species. New Phytologist 181, 683–692.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Geiser, LH and Neitlich, PN (2007) Air pollution and climate gradients in western Oregon and Washington indicated by epiphytic macrolichens. Environmental Pollution 145, 203–218.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Giordani, P (2006) Variables influencing the distribution of epiphytic lichens in heterogeneous areas: a case study for Liguria, NW Italy. Journal of Vegetation Science 17, 195–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goward, T and Arseneau, A (2000) Cyanolichen distribution in young unmanaged forests: a drip-zone effect? Bryologist 103, 28–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grueber, CE, Nakagawa, S, Laws, RJ and Jamieson, IG (2011) Multimodel inference in ecology and evolution: challenges and solutions. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 24, 699–711.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gustafsson, L and Eriksson, I (1995) Factors of importance for the epiphytic vegetation of aspen Populus tremula with special emphasis on bark chemistry and soil chemistry. Journal of Applied Ecology 32, 412–424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hawksworth, DL and Rose, F (1970) Qualitative scale for estimating sulphur dioxide air pollution in England and Wales using epiphytic lichens. Nature 227, 145–148.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Holdridge, LR (1947) Determination of world plant formations from simple climate data. Science 105, 367–368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hollis, D, McCarthy, M, Kendon, M, Legg, T and Simpson, I (2019) HadUK-Grid – a new UK dataset of gridded climate observations. Geoscience Data Journal 6, 151–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ilek, A, Kucza, J and Morkisz, K (2017) Hydrological properties of bark of selected forest tree species. Part 2: interspecific variability of bark water storage capacity. Folia Forestalia Polonica, Series A – Forestry 59, 110–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
James, PW, Hawksworth, DH and Rose, F (1977) Lichen communities in the British Isles: a preliminary conspectus. In Seaward, MRD (ed.), Lichen Ecology. London: Academic Press, pp. 295–413.Google Scholar
Jenkins, G, Murphy, JM, Sexton, DMH, Lowe, JA, Jones, P and Kilsby, C (2010) UK Climate Projections: Briefing Report. Exeter: Met Office Hadley Centre.Google Scholar
Johansson, V, Snäll, T and Ranius, T (2013) Estimates of connectivity reveal non-equilibrium epiphyte occurrence patterns almost 180 years after habitat decline. Oecologia 172, 607–615.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Joly, D and Gillet, F (2017) Interpolation of temperatures under forest cover on a regional scale in the French Jura mountains. International Journal of Climatology 37, 659–670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jönsson, MT, Ruete, A, Kellner, O, Gunnarsson, U and Snäll, T (2017) Will forest conservation areas protect functionally important diversity of fungi and lichens over time? Biodiversity and Conservation 26, 2547–2567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jüriado, I, Liira, J, Paal, J and Suija, A (2009) Tree and stand level variables influencing diversity of lichens on temperate broad-leaved trees in boreo-nemoral floodplain forests. Biodiversity and Conservation 18, 105–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keenan, RJ (2015) Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review. Annals of Forest Science 72, 145–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenkel, NC and Bradfield, GE (1986) Epiphytic vegetation on Acer macrophyllum: a multivariate study of species-habitat relationships. Vegetatio 68, 43–53.Google Scholar
Kuusinen, M (1996) Epiphyte flora and diversity on basal trunks of six old-growth forest tree species in southern and middle boreal Finland. Lichenologist 28, 443–463.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, HME, Rasmussen, HN and Nord-Larsen, T (2017) The water holding capacity of bark in Danish angiosperm trees. Poster presented at the IUFRO Division 5 Conference 2017, Vancouver, Canada. [WWW document] https://www.forskningsdatabasen.dk/en/catalog/2393720275.Google Scholar
Lättman, H, Lindblom, L, Mattson, J-E, Milberg, P, Skage, M and Ekman, S (2009) Estimating the dispersal capacity of the rare lichen Cliostomum corrugatum. Biological Conservation 142, 1870–1878.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemmon, PE (1956) A spherical densiometer for estimating forest overstory density. Forest Science 2, 314–320.Google Scholar
Lenoir, J, Gégout, JC, Marquet, PA, de Ruffray, P and Brisse, H (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science 320, 1768–1771.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Leppik, E and Jüriado, I (2008) Factors important for epiphytic lichen communities in wooded meadows of Estonia. Folia Cryptogamica Estonica 44, 75–87.Google Scholar
Leppik, E, Jüriado, I and Liira, J (2011) Changes in stand structure due to the cessation of traditional land use in wooded meadows impoverish epiphytic lichen communities. Lichenologist 43, 257–274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loarie, SR, Duffy, PB, Hamilton, H, Asner, GP, Field, CB and Ackerly, DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462, 1052–1055.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Loppi, S and Frati, L (2004) Influence of tree substrate on the diversity of epiphytic lichens: comparison between Tilia platyphyllos and Quercus ilex (Central Italy). Bryologist 107, 340–344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyons, B, Nadkarni, NM and North, MP (2000) Spatial distribution and succession of epiphytes on Tsuga heterophylla (western hemlock) in an old-growth Douglas-fir forest. Canadian Journal of Botany 78, 957–968.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macek, M, Kopecký, M and Wild, J (2019) Maximum air temperature controlled by landscape topography affects plant species composition in temperate forests. Landscape Ecology 34, 2541–2556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marmor, L, Tõrra, T, Saag, L and Randlane, T (2012) Species richness of epiphytic lichens in coniferous forests: the effect of canopy openness. Annales Botanici Fennici 49, 352–358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B (2006) Non-parametric habitat models with automatic interactions. Journal of Vegetation Science 17, 819–830.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B (2007) Improved estimates of incident radiation and heat load using non-parametric regression against topographic variables. Journal of Vegetation Science 18, 751–754.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B (2011) Nonparametric Multiplicative Regression for Habitat Modeling. Corvallis: Oregon State University.Google Scholar
McCune, B and Antos, JA (1982) Epiphyte communities of the Swan Valley, Montana. Bryologist 85, 1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B and Grace, JB (2002) Analysis of Ecological Communities. Gleneden Beach: MjM Software Design.Google Scholar
McCune, B and Keon, D (2002) Equations for potential annual direct incident radiation and heat load. Journal of Vegetation Science 13, 603–606.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B, Daey, J, Peck, JE, Heiman, K and Will-Wolf, S (1997 a) Regional gradients in lichen communities of the southeast United States. Bryologist 100, 145–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCune, B, Amsberry, KA, Camacho, FJ, Clery, S, Cole, C, Emerson, C, Felder, G, French, P, Greene, D, Harris, R, et al. (1997 b) Vertical profile of epiphytes in a Pacific Northwest old-growth forest. Northwest Science 71, 145–152.Google Scholar
McCune, B, Rosentreter, R, Ponzetti, JM and Shaw, DC (2000) Epiphyte habitats in an old conifer forest in western Washington, U.S.A. Bryologist 103, 417–427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGee, GG, Cardon, ME and Kiernan, DH (2019) Variation in Acer saccharum Marshall (Sugar Maple) bark and stemflow characteristics: implications for epiphytic bryophyte communities. Northeastern Naturalist 26, 214–235.Google Scholar
McKenney, DW, Pedlar, JH, Lawrence, K, Campbell, K and Hutchinson, MF (2007) Potential impacts of climate on the distribution of North American trees. Bioscience 57, 939–948.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merinero, S, Hilmo, O and Gauslaa, Y (2014) Size is a main driver for hydration traits in cyano- and cephalolichens of boreal rainforest canopies. Fungal Ecology 7, 59–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merinero, S, Martínez, I, Rubio-Salcedo, M and Gauslaa, Y (2015) Epiphytic lichen growth in Mediterranean forests: effects of proximity to the ground and reproductive stage. Basic and Applied Ecology 16, 220–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mežaka, A, Brūmelis, G and Piterāns, A (2012) Tree and stand-scale factors affecting richness and composition of epiphytic bryophytes and lichens in deciduous woodland key habitats. Biodiversity and Conservation 21, 3221–3241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mistry, J and Beradi, A (2005) Effects of phorophyte determinants on lichen abundance in the cerrado of central Brazil. Plant Ecology 178, 61–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, RJ, Beaton, JK, Bellamy, PE, Broome, A, Chetcuti, J, Eaton, S, Ellis, CJ, Gimona, A, Harmer, R, Hester, AJ, et al. (2014) Ash dieback in the UK: a review of the ecological and conservation implications and potential management options. Biological Conservation 175, 95–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Molina, MC, Crespo, A, Blanco, O, Lumbsch, HT and Hawksworth, DL (2004) Phylogenetic relationships and species concepts in Parmelia s. str. (Parmeliaceae) inferred from nuclear ITS rDNA and β-tubulin sequences. Lichenologist 36, 37–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moss, RH, Edmonds, JA, Hibbard, KA, Manning, MR, Rose, SK, van Vuuren, DP, Carter, TR, Emori, S, Kainuma, M, Kram, T, et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Murphy, JM, Harris, GR, Sexton, DMH, Kendon, EJ, Bett, PE, Clark, RT, Eagle, KE, Fosser, G, Fung, F, Lowe, JA, et al. (2018) UKCP18 Land Projections: Science Report. Exeter: UK Met Office.Google Scholar
Murtagh, GJ, Dyer, PS, Furneaux, PA and Crittenden, PD (2002) Molecular and physiological diversity in the bipolar lichen-forming fungus Xanthoria elegans. Mycological Research 106, 1277–1286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nakićenović, N and Swart, R (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The Hague: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3rd Assessment Report.Google Scholar
Nascimbene, J, Casazza, G, Benesperi, R, Catalano, I, Cataldo, D, Grillo, M, Isocrono, D, Matteucci, E, Ongaro, S, Potenza, G, et al. (2016) Climate change fosters the decline of epiphytic Lobaria species in Italy. Biological Conservation 201, 377–384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nilsson, SG, Hedin, J and Niklasson, M (2001) Biodiversity and its assessment in boreal and nemoral forests. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, Supplement 3, 10–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nitare, J (2000) Signalarter. Jönköping: Skogsstyrelsens Förlag.Google Scholar
Ogden, AE and Innes, J (2007) Incorporating climate change adaptation considerations into forest management planning in the boreal forest. International Forestry Review 9, 713–733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paletto, A and Tosi, V (2009) Forest canopy cover and canopy closure: comparison of assessment techniques. European Journal of Forest Research 128, 265–272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paltto, H, Nordberg, A, Nordén, B and Snäll, T (2011) Development of secondary woodland in oak wood pastures reduces the richness of rare epiphytic lichens. PLoS ONE 6, e24675.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Parker, GG (1997) Canopy structure and light environment of an old-growth Douglas-fir/Western Hemlock forest. Northwest Science 71, 261–270.Google Scholar
Parmesan, C and Yohe, G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421, 37–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pautasso, M, Aas, G, Queloz, V and Holdenrieder, O (2013) European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) dieback – a conservation biology challenge. Biological Conservation 158, 37–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearson, RG and Dawson, TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12, 361–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinheiro, JC and Bates, DM (2000) Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinheiro, J, Bates, D, DebRoy, S, Sarkar, D and Core Team, R (2020) nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models, R package version 3.1-145. [WWW resource] URL https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nlme.Google Scholar
Quine, CP and White, IMS (1994) Using the relationship between rate of tatter and topographic variables to predict site windiness in upland Britain. Forestry 67, 345–356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rackham, O (2003) Ancient Woodland: Its History, Vegetation and Uses in England. Dalbeattie: Castlepoint Press.Google Scholar
Rackham, O (2006) Woodlands. London: Collins.Google Scholar
Radies, D, Coxson, DS, Johnson, C and Konwicki, K (2009) Predicting canopy macrolichen diversity and abundance within old-growth inland temperate rainforests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 86–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rambo, TR (2010) Habitat preferences of an arboreal forage lichen in a Sierra Nevada old-growth mixed-conifer forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40, 1034–1041.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, DW (1986) Ordination on the basis of fuzzy set theory. Vegetatio 66, 123–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, DW (2008) Statistical analysis of multidimensional fuzzy sets ordination. Ecology 89, 1246–1260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, DW (2018) fso: fuzzy set ordination, R package version 2.1-1. [WWW resource] URL https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/fso/fso.pdf.Google Scholar
Rodwell, JS (1991) British Plant Communities, Volume 1. Woodlands and Scrub. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rolstad, J, Gjerde, I, Storaunet, KO and Rolstad, E (2001) Epiphytic lichens in Norwegian coastal spruce forest: historic logging and present forest structure. Ecological Applications 11, 421–436.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ronnås, C, Werth, S, Ovaskainen, O, Várkonyi, G, Scheidegger, C and Snäll, T (2017) Discovery of long-distance gamete dispersal in a lichen-forming ascomycete. New Phytologist 216, 216–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, F (1988) Phytogeographical and ecological aspects of Lobarion communities in Europe. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society 96, 69–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rubio-Salcedo, M, Psomas, A, Prieto, M, Zimmermann, NE and Martínez, I (2017) Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions. Biodiversity and Conservation 26, 1121–1141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rull, V (2009) Microrefugia. Journal of Biogeography 36, 481–484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scherrer, D and Körner, C (2010) Infra-red thermometry of alpine landscapes challenges climate warming projections. Global Change Biology 16, 2602–2613.Google Scholar
Scherrer, D and Körner, C (2011) Topographically controlled thermal-habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming. Journal of Biogeography 38, 406–416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scherrer, D, Schmid, S and Körner, C (2011) Elevational species shifts in a warmer climate are overestimated when based on weather station data. International Journal of Biometeorology 55, 645–654.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwartz, MW (1993) Modelling the effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming. Biodiversity and Conservation 2, 51–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seaward, MRD (1975) Lichen flora of the West Yorkshire conurbation. Proceedings of the Leeds Philosophical and Literary Society 10, 141–208.Google Scholar
Smith, CW, Aptroot, A, Coppins, BJ, Fletcher, A, Gilbert, OL, James, PW and Wolseley, PA (2009) The Lichens of Britain and Ireland. London: British Lichen Society.Google Scholar
Smout, TC (2005) Oak as a commercial crop in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Botanical Journal of Scotland 57, 107–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smout, TC, MacDonald, AR and Watson, F (2007) A History of the Native Woodlands of Scotland, 1500–1920. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.Google Scholar
Sousa-Silva, R, Verbist, B, Lomba, Â, Valent, P, Suškevičs, M, Picard, O, Hoogstra-Klein, MA, Cosofret, V-C, Bouriaud, L, Quentin Ponette, Q, et al. (2018) Adapting forest management to climate change in Europe: linking perceptions to adaptive responses. Forest Policy and Economics 90, 22–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stehn, SE, Nelson, PR, Roland, CA and Jones, JR (2013) Patterns in the occupancy and abundance of the globally rare lichen Erioderma pedicellatum in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. Bryologist 116, 2–14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Suárez, J, Gardiner, B and Quine, CP (1999) A comparison of three methods for predicting wind speeds in complex forested terrain. Meteorological Applications 6, 329–342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Symonds, MRE and Moussalli, A (2011) A brief guide to model selection, multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike's information criterion. Behavioural Ecology and Sociobiology 65, 13–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tallis, JH (1991) Plant Community History. London: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Thomas, CD, Cameron, A, Green, RE, Bakkenes, M, Beaumont, LJ, Collingham, YC, Erasmus, BFN, de Siqueira, MF, Grainger, A, Hannah, L, et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145–148.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Thuiller, W, Lavorel, S, Araújo, MB, Sykes, MT and Prentice, IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102, 8245–8250.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Thuiller, W, Lavorel, S, Sykes, MT and Araújo, MB (2006) Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. Diversity and Distributions 12, 49–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Travis, JMJ (2003) Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 270, 467–473.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Usher, MB (1986) Invasibility and wildlife conservation: invasive species on nature reserves. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 314, 695–710.Google Scholar
van Herk, CM, Mathijssen-Spiekman, EAM and de Zwart, D (2003) Long distance nitrogen air pollution effects on lichens in Europe. Lichenologist 35, 347–359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Vuuren, DP and Carter, TR (2014) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old. Climate Change 122, 415–429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vanwalleghem, T and Meentemeyer, RK (2009) Predicting forest microclimate in heterogeneous landscapes. Ecosystems 12, 1158–1172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webb, T and Bartlein, PJ (1992) Global changes during the last 3 million years: climatic controls and biotic responses. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23, 141–173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Werth, S, Tømmervik, H and Elvebakk, A (2005) Epiphytic macrolichen communities along regional gradients in northern Norway. Journal of Vegetation Science 16, 199–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whittaker, RH (1975) Communities and Ecosystems. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Williams, JW, Jackson, ST and Kutzbach, JE (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, 5738–5742.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolseley, P and Aguirre-Hudson, B (1997) The ecology and distribution of lichens in tropical deciduous and evergreen forests of northern Thailand. Journal of Biogeography 24, 327–343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yahr, R, Vilgalys, R and DePriest, PT (2006) Geographic variation in algal partners of Cladonia subtenuis (Cladoniaceae) highlights the dynamic nature of a lichen symbiosis. New Phytologist 171, 847–860.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Zuur, AF, Ieno, EN, Walker, NJ, Saveliev, AA and Smith, GM (2009) Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar