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Temporal dynamics hidden within species baselines – multifaceted decline of a lichen bioindicator (Bryoria fuscescens)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2025

Christopher J. Ellis Open the ORCID record for Christopher J. Ellis [Opens in a new window] ,
Sam Tomlinson Open the ORCID record for Sam Tomlinson [Opens in a new window] ,
Edward J. Carnell Open the ORCID record for Edward J. Carnell [Opens in a new window] ,
Brian J. Coppins  and
Mark A. Sutton Open the ORCID record for Mark A. Sutton [Opens in a new window]
Christopher J. Ellis*
Affiliation:
Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK
Sam Tomlinson
Affiliation:
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
Edward J. Carnell
Affiliation:
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
Brian J. Coppins
Affiliation:
Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK
Mark A. Sutton
Affiliation:
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK
*
Corresponding author: Christopher J. Ellis; Email: c.ellis@rbge.org.uk
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Abstract

Rapid advances in species distribution modelling have been facilitated by open availability of ‘big data’ and powerful statistical methods. A key consideration remains the time window over which field recorded occurrence data are sampled to develop a baseline species distribution. Too narrow, and distributions are incomplete and affected by sampling bias, too broad and distributions may fail to meet an assumption of equilibrium, having been affected by dynamic change across a range of different predictors. Lichens are a case in point; being diverse, functionally important and the subject of bioclimatic modelling for conservation assessment, they are nevertheless a specialist taxonomic group that is comparatively less well recorded compared to birds, mammals or vascular plants, for example. In this study, we examined the distribution of the ‘hair-lichen’ Bryoria fuscescens, based on UK record data. We partitioned records into sub-decadal periods (1970s, 1990s, 2010s), and accounting for recording effort, we compared these distributions to three predictors: an historical reconstruction of two different pollutants (sulphur dioxide and nitrogen deposition), and the climate (minimum mean temperature). We asked whether the strength of evidence for the effect of environmental predictors on Bryoria fuscescens distribution varied among the different decades, while also considering a potential for lag-effects. We show that a Bryoria fuscescens distribution that appears static, is dynamic when referenced against patterns of field recording effort. Climate was consistently important in explaining Bryoria fuscescens distribution, which was also affected by the changing pattern of pollution over time. This included a lag-effect of peak sulphur dioxide in the 1970s, and accrued effects of nitrogen deposition that strengthen over time. Overall, we conclude that Bryoria fuscescens has undergone a long-term decline in extent over the last six decades, caused by complex multivariate effects of air pollution, probably combined with climate warming. The ability to resolve these trends for assessment against future conservation targets depends critically on maintaining field identification skills and a sufficiently robust recording effort.

Keywords

climate warmingdistributionfield recordingnitrogensampling biassulphur dioxide
Type
Standard Paper
Information
The Lichenologist , First View , pp. 1 - 9
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Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The British Lichen Society

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