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MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND EDUCATIONAL CHANGES IN POLAND AFTER 1990

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 January 2020

Aleksandra Kolasa
Aleksandra Kolasa*
Affiliation:
University of Warsaw
*
Address correspondence to: Aleksandra Kolasa, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland. e-mail: aleksandra.w.kolasa@gmail.com. Phone: +48 22 55 49 111, 126. Fax: +48 22 831 28 46.
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Abstract

Soon after the start of transition to a market economy in the early 1990s, Poland has experienced both a dramatic decline in the fertility rate and an increase in the share of students among young high-school graduates. These two processes significantly changed the age structure of population and average income characteristics of households. Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and uninsured income shocks, I try to assess the impact of these changes on the Polish economy as a whole and inequalities within it. I find that, in the long term, the positive effects of the educational change on output per capita will more than offset the negative impact of lower fertility. I also show that the educational change increases income and consumption inequalities, while the fertility change decreases inequality in assets.

Keywords

Low FertilityEducational BoomInequalitiesHeterogeneous Agents
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 25 , Issue 8 , December 2021 , pp. 1993 - 2036
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2020

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Footnotes

I would like to thank two anonymous referees for useful suggestions to the previous draft. This paper also benefited from comments by Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Marcin Kolasa, Anna Nicińska, Małgorzata Rószkiewicz, Michał Rubaszek, Małgorzata Skibińska, Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz and participants of the 5th National Bank of Poland Summer Workshop in Warsaw. All remaining errors are my own.

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