Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-11T06:23:24.479Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

UNEMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND FISCAL POLICY: NEW INSIGHTS ON THE HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2006

XAVIER RAURICH
Affiliation:
Universitat de Barcelona and CREB
HECTOR SALA
Affiliation:
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and IZA
VALERI SOROLLA
Affiliation:
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Abstract

We develop a growth model with unemployment due to imperfections in the labor market. In this model, wage inertia and balanced budget rules cause a complementarity between capital and employment capable of explaining the existence of multiple equilibrium paths. Hysteresis is viewed as the result of a selection between these different paths. We use this model to arguea that, in contrast to the United States, those fiscal policies followed by most of the European countries after the shocks of the 1970s may have played a central role in generating hysteresis.

Type
ARTICLES
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Akram Q.F. 1998 Has the Unemployment Switched between Multiple Equilibria? Norges Bank Working Paper 1998/02.
Akram Q.F. 1999 Multiple Unemployment Equilibria: Do Transitory Shocks Have Permanent Effects? Norges Bank Working Paper 1999/06.
Arrow K.J. 1962 The economic implications of learning by doing. Review of Economic Studies 29, 155173.Google Scholar
Basu S. and J. Fernald 1997 Returns to scale in U.S. production: Estimates and implications. Journal of Political Economy 105, 249283.Google Scholar
Bianchi M. and G. Zoega 1998 Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter? Journal of Applied Econometrics 13, 283304.Google Scholar
Blanchard O. and L.F. Katz 1999 Wage dynamics: Reconciling theory and evidence. American Economic Review 89, 69–74.
Blanchard O.J. and L. Summers 1986 Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual Vol. 1, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1571.
Blanchard O.J. and L. Summers 1987 Fiscal increasing returns, hysteresis, real wages and unemployment. European Economic Review 31, 543566.Google Scholar
Blanchard O.J. and L.H. Summers 1988 Beyond the natural rate hypothesis. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 78, 182187.Google Scholar
Blanchard O.J. and J. Wolfers 2000 The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: The aggregate evidence. The Economic Journal 110, C1C33.Google Scholar
Buti M. D. Franco and H. Ongena 1997 Budgetary policies during recessions: Retrospective application of the stability and growth pact to the post-war period. Recherches Economiques de Louvain 63, 321366.Google Scholar
Calmfors L., G. Corsetti, J. Fleming, S. Honkapohja, J. Kay, W. Leibfritz, G. Saint-Paul, H.W. Sinn and X. Vives 2003 Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Euro Area: Possible Reforms of the Stability and Growth Pact and National Decision-Making Processes}. CESifo, Munich.
Coimbra R., T. Lloyd-Braga and L. Modesto 2000 Unions, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations. IZA Discussion Paper 229.
Collard F. and D. de la Croix 2000 Gift exchange and the business cycle: The fair wage strikes back. Review of Economic Dynamics 3, 166193.Google Scholar
Cross R. 1988 Unemployment, Hysteresis and the Natural Rate Hypotheses. Oxford: Blackwell.
Cross R. 1995 The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections of 25 Years of Hypothesis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Den Haan W. 2003 Temporary shocks and unavoidable transitions to a high-unemployment regime. CEPR Discussion Papers 3704.
Diamond P. 1982 Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium. Journal of Political Economy 90, 881894.Google Scholar
Fatás A. and I. Mihov 2001 Fiscal policy and business cycles: An empirical investigation. Moneda y Crédito 212, 167210.Google Scholar
Garofalo G.A. and S. Yamarik 2002 Regional evidence from a new state-by-state capital stock series. The Review of Economics and Statistics 84, 316323.Google Scholar
Henry B., M. Karanassou and D.J. Snower 2000 Adjustment dynamics and the natural rate: An account of UK unemployment. Oxford Economic Papers 52, 178203.Google Scholar
Hoon H.T. and E. Phelps 1992 Macroecomics shocks in a dynamized model of the natural rate of unemployment. American Economic Review 82, 889900.Google Scholar
Hughes Hallet A.J. and L. Piscitelli 2002 Testing for hysteresis against nonlinear alternatives. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 27, 303327.Google Scholar
Jaeger A. and M. Parkinson 1994 Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates. European Economic Review 38, 329342.Google Scholar
Karanassou M., H. Sala and D. Snower 2003 Unemployment in the European Union: A dynamic reappraisal. Economic Modelling 20, 237273.Google Scholar
Layard P.R.J., S.J. Nickell and R. Jackman 1991 Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labor Market. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
León-Ledesma M. and P. McAdam 2004 Unemployment, hysteresis and transition. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 51, 377401.Google Scholar
Lindbeck A. and D.J. Snower 2001 Insiders versus outsiders. Journal of Economic Perspectives 15, 165188.Google Scholar
Manning A. 1990 Imperfect competition, multiple equilibria and unemployment policy. The Economic Journal 100, 151162.Google Scholar
Manning A. 1992 Multiple equilibria in the British labor market: Some empirical evidence. European Economic Review 36, 1.3331.365.Google Scholar
Mortensen D.T. 1989 The persistence and indeterminancy of unemployment in search equilibrium. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 91, 347370.Google Scholar
Ogaki M. and C. Reinhart 1998 Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods. Journal of Political Economy 106, 10781098.Google Scholar
Ortigueira S. 2003 Unemployment benefits and the persistence of european unemployment. WP series 27 of Computing in Economics and Finance, Society for Computational Economics.
Phelps E. 1994 Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Phelps E. and G. Zoega 1998 Natural rate theory and OECD unemployment. Economic Journal 108, 782801.Google Scholar
Phelps E. and G. Zoega 2001 Structural booms: Productivity expectations and asset valuations. Economic Policy 32, 85126.Google Scholar
Piscitelli L., R. Cross, M. Grinfeld and H. Lamba 2000 A test for strong hysteresis. Computational Economics 15, 5978.Google Scholar
Raurich X., H. Sala and V. Sorolla 2004 Unemployment, Growth and Fiscal Policy: New Insights on the Hysteresis Hypothesis. IZA Discussion Paper Series, no. 1127, IZA, Bonn.
Rocheteau G. 1999 Balanced-budget rules and indeterminacy of the equilibrium unemployment rate. Oxford Economic Papers 51, 399409.Google Scholar
Rowthorn R. 1999 Unemployment, wage bargaining and capital-labor substitution. Cambridge Journal of Economics 23, 413425.Google Scholar
Schmitt-Grohé S. and M. Uribe 1997 Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability. Journal of Political Economy 105, 9761000.Google Scholar