Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T08:43:11.118Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenariosbased on economic equilibrium models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 June 2014

E. Igos ,
B. Rugani ,
S. Rege ,
E. Benetto ,
L. Drouet ,
D. Zachary  and
T. Haas
E. Igos
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
B. Rugani
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
S. Rege
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
E. Benetto
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
L. Drouet
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
D. Zachary
Affiliation:
Public Research Centre Henri Tudor, Resource Centre for Environmental Technologies (CRTE), 6A, avenue des Hauts-Fourneaux, 4362 Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
T. Haas
Affiliation:
Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques du Grand-Duché du Luxembourg (STATEC), 13 rue Erasme, 1468 Luxembourg  
Get access

Abstract

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) theeconomic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on theavailability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paperaims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research projectconducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energyscenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable generalequilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The generalequilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts ofpolicy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006−2030. A techno-economic (partialequilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels ofvarious technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along thesame timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEMwith LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving bothmodels. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-ExtendedInput-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of theintegrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country.Accordingly, a disaggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologiesin the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the processdetail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, usedto produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energyproduction technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant “Twinerg”, representingalmost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg. In the hybrid EE-IOmodel, this technology contributes to around 7% of the total impact of the country’s netconsumption. The causes of divergence between ETEM and LUXGEM are also thoroughlyinvestigated to outline possible strategies of modeling improvements for future assessmentof environmental impacts using EE-IO. Further analyses focus first on the completion ofthe models’ coupling and its application to the defined scenarios. Once the coupling isconsistently accomplished, LUXGEM can compute the IO flows from 2010 to 2030, while theLCI processes in the hybrid system are harmonized with ETEM to represent the futuredomestic and imported energy technologies.

Keywords

Life cycle assessmentenergy scenariosgeneral equilibrium modeltechno-economic modelenvironmentally-extended input-outputhybridization
Type
Research Article
Information
Metallurgical Research & Technology , Volume 111 , Issue 3: Social Value of Materials (SAM 7) , 2014 , pp. 179 - 189
Copyright
© EDP Sciences 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Armaroli, N., Balzani, V., Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 46 (2007) 52-66
Asif, M., Muneer, T., Ren. Sust. Energ. Rev. 11 (2007) 1388-1413
J.P. Holdren. The energy innovation imperative – Addressing oil dependence, climate change and other 21st century energy challenges. Innovations, Tagore LLC, spring, 2006
MA. Cardenete, A.-I. Guerra, F. Sancho, Applied General Equilibrium: An Introduction, 1st edn. Springer, 2012, p. 118
V. Ginsburgh, M. Keyzer, The Structure of Applied General Equilibrium Models. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2002
L. Hans, R. Lee Harris, S. Robinson, A standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) in GAMS. Microcomputers in Policy Research, Vol. 5, International Food Policy Research Institute, 2002. Available at: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/mc5.pdf (last access March 2013)
Shoven, J., Whalley, J., J. Econ. Lit. 22 (1984) 1007-51
ISO-International Organisation For Standardisation, Environmental Management – Life Cycle Assessment ISO 14040 Principles and Framework ISO 14044 Requirements and Guidelines. Geneva, 2006
European Commission – Joint Research Centre – Institute for Environment and Sustainability. International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) Handbook – General guide for Life Cycle Assessment – Detailed guidance. First edition March 2010. EUR 24708 EN. Luxembourg. Publications Office of the European Union
Bae, J.H., Cho, G.L., Energ. Econ. 32 (2010) S57-S66
Lee, D.-H., Hsu, S.-S., Tso, C.-T., Su, A., Lee, D.-J., Chiu, L.-H., Renew. Energ. 34 (2009) 1947-1954
Lee, D.-H., Lee, D.-J., Veziroglu, A., Biores. Technol. 102 (2011) 8475-8483
NEEDS project home page. Available at: http://www.needs-project.org/ (last access March 2013)
L. Drouet, S. Rege, LUXEN Deliverable 1.1 – Luxembourg Energy Review. Programme FEDER, CRP H. Tudor, STATEC Luxembourg. September 2011 (update March 2012)
F. Adam, F. Aka, F. Dramais, C. Mohora, M. Opese, Luxgem: modèle d’équilibre général calculable pour le Luxembourg. Cahier économique No. 110. Statec, Luxembourg, 2010. Available at: http://www.statistiques.public.lu/fr/publications/series/cahiers-economiques/2010/110-luxgem/index.html (last access March 2013)
IEA-International Energy Agency, Energy prices & taxes (quarterly). OECD, 2006. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/energy-prices-and-taxes_16096835 (last access March 2013)
F. Adam, Cahier de variantes Modux. Cahier économique No. 104. Statec, Luxembourg, 2007. Available at: http://www.statistiques.public.lu/fr/publications/series/cahiers-economiques/2007/104-modux/index.html (last access March 2013)
Ewing, B.R., Hawkins, T.R., Wiedmann, T.O., Galli, A., Ercin, A.E., Weinzettel, J., Steen-Olsen, K., Ecol. Ind. 23 (2012) 1-8
Larsen, H.N., Hertwich, E.G., Environ. Sci. Pol. 12 (2009) 791-798
Steen-Olsen, K., Weinzettel, J., Cranston, G., Ercin, A.E., Hertwich, E.G., Environ. Sci. Technol. 46 (2012) 10883-10891
Wiedmann, T., Ecol. Econ. 69 (2009) 211-222
Wiedmann, T., Wilting, H.C., Lenzen, M., Lutter, S., Palm, V., Ecol. Econ. 70 (2011) 1937-1945
Joshi, S., J Industrial Ecology 3 (1999) 95-120
Yang, Y., Suh, S., Environ. Sci. Technol. 45 (2011) 4102-4109.
S. Suh (Ed.), Handbook of Input-Output Economics in Industrial Ecology. Series “Eco-Efficiency in Industry and Science”, Vol. 23, Springer, 2009, pp. 884
Ecoinvent centre, Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories Website. Available at: http://www.ecoinvent.ch/ (last access March 2013)
Suh, S., Ecol. Econ. 48 (2004) 451-467
M. Goedkoop, R. Heijungs, M.A.J. Huijbregts, D. An Schryver, J. Struijs, R. Van Zelm, ReCiPe 2008 A Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method which Comprises Harmonised Category Indicators at the Midpoint and the Endpoint Level. Report I, 1st Edition. Netherlands, Characterisation, Report VROM, 2009
Jury, C., Rugani, B., Hild, P., May, M., Benetto, E., Environ. Sci. Pol. 27 (2013) 68-80
Stone, R., Linear Expenditure System and Demand Analysis: An application to the British demand, Econ. J. 64 (1954) 511-527 Google Scholar