Assessment of the benefits of weather forecasting for British Antarctic Survey operations

Abstract

The British Antarctic Survey operates both aircraft and ships in the Antarctic. High quality weather forecasts can have a large impact on safe operations at high southern latitudes. This paper assesses the benefits the weather forecasts have had on safety and on costs in the Antarctic during the 1995/96 season. The forecasts of cloud amount, cloud base and weather have a greater accuracy than persistence although the accuracy is lower than might be expected for an airfield in the United Kingdom. The major advantage in having good forecasts available at Rothera would seem to be an increased safety. Although cost benefits exist they are more difficult to assess.