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Introducing and verifying rainfall probability forecasts in a small meteorological office

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 May 2001

Frank Le Blancq  and
Philip Johnson
Frank Le Blancq
Affiliation:
Jersey Meteorological Department, States Airport, St. Peter, Jersey, JE1 1BY
Philip Johnson
Affiliation:
Jersey Meteorological Department, States Airport, St. Peter, Jersey, JE1 1BY
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Abstract

The introduction of a new medium-range weather forecast presented an opportunity to establish a verification procedure for monitoring the reliability and accuracy of probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts. The need for verification is discussed and a simple verification procedure described, using reliability diagrams as a visual guide to forecaster bias, Brier Scores to give levels of accuracy and Skill Scores to demonstrate skill levels when comparing forecast methods. The application of this verification procedure in a small meteorological office, with no dedicated research facilities, is presented and discussed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 7 , Issue 4 , December 2000 , pp. 361 - 367
Copyright
© 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

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