Prediction of crop yield in Sweden based on mesoscale meteorological analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a prediction system for regional crop growth in Sweden,recently set up at SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and HydrologicalInstitute). The system includes a state-of-the-art crop growth model,WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) and inputs from meteorological mesoscaleanalysis. The simulated crops are spring barley, spring rape, oats andwinter wheat, and the period of investigation is 1985-98. The simulatedwater-limited grain yield is used as a predictor in the yield predictionprocedure. The technological time trend describing the yearly increase ofthe production level is accounted for as well. Yield prediction based oncrop growth modelling is justified since the ability to forecast the yieldis higher compared to that using the technological time trend alone. Theprediction errors are of the order of 8 to 16%, with the lowest errors forwinter wheat and spring barley.