Prediction of crop yield in Sweden based on mesoscale meteorological analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a prediction system for regional crop growth in Sweden, recently set up at SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). The system includes a state-of-the-art crop growth model, WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) and inputs from meteorological mesoscale analysis. The simulated crops are spring barley, spring rape, oats and winter wheat, and the period of investigation is 1985-98. The simulated water-limited grain yield is used as a predictor in the yield prediction procedure. The technological time trend describing the yearly increase of the production level is accounted for as well. Yield prediction based on crop growth modelling is justified since the ability to forecast the yield is higher compared to that using the technological time trend alone. The prediction errors are of the order of 8 to 16%, with the lowest errors for winter wheat and spring barley.