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100th Issue of the Review : Was the Recession Forecast?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

M.J.C. Surrey
M.J.C. Surrey*
Affiliation:
University of Leeds
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Extract

This paper is concerned with two limited but complex questions: to what extent was the recession of 1979–81 foreseen in the forecasts made while I was Editor in 1977–9, and does the experience of that episode provide any general lessons for forecasters?

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 100 , May 1982 , pp. 24 - 28
Copyright
Copyright © 1982 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(note 1 in page 26) The changes in the aggregate tax rate conceal a marked shift between 1976 and 1981 from direct to indirect taxation: the direct tax rate fell from nearly 16 per cent to a little over 13 per cent while the indirect tax rate rose from under 12 per cent to 16 1/2 per cent. This shift to indirect taxation can only be described as bizarre in an era of policy directed towards the control of price inflation.

(note 1 in page 27) The May forecasts are the first to be made in the light of full data on the previous calendar year: in that sense they are genuinely ‘one-step’ forecasts.