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Approaches To Medium-Term Assessments

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

C.J.F. Brown  and
T.D. Sheriff
C.J.F. Brown*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
T.D. Sheriff*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
*
∗The authors are grateful to colleagues at the National Institute, in particular to F. T. Blackaby and G. F. Ray, for advice and helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article.
∗The authors are grateful to colleagues at the National Institute, in particular to F. T. Blackaby and G. F. Ray, for advice and helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article.
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Abstract

In 1965, the National Institute published ‘The British Economy in 1975’, by W. Beckerman and associates. This article summarises the results of a post-mortem on the book which was carried out at the Institute, together with a general discussion of approaches to medium-term projections

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 86 , November 1978 , pp. 55 - 64
Copyright
Copyright © 1978 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) See C. J. F. Brown and T. D. Sheriff, ‘Problems of medium- term assessments—a post-mortem on “The British Economy in 1975” ’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Discussion Paper No. 11, December 1977, where the detailed results of the post-mortem are presented.

(2) See inter alia National Institute Economic Review, No. 15, May 1961; No. 40, May 1967; No. 50, November 1969; No. 62, November 1972; No. 68, May 1974; and No. 78, November 1976.

(3) In 1962 the National Economic Development Council adopted 4 per cent as being a ‘reasonably ambitious’ target and in 1965 the National Plan was based on output growth of 3.8 per cent per annum for 1964-70.

(4) C. J. F. Brown and T. D. Sheriff, ‘Deindustrialisation: a background paper’, in F. T. Blackaby (ed), Deindustrialisation, Heinemann Educational Books, 1979, forthcoming.

(1) Central Policy Review Staff, ‘Population and the Social Services’, London, HMSO, 1977.

(1) It was not possible to carry out the post-mortem in terms of ‘competitive’ and ‘non-competitive’ trade.

(1) Within the main groups, BB's forecasts were not particularly successful, although it had some success within the categories food, clothing and transport. Nevertheless, they improved upon the naive forecasts. The success of the predictions do not seem to have been influenced by whether or not the LES was used.

(2) The method of forecasting the pattern of output growth relied heavily on input-output techniques.

(1) See Brown and Sheriff, 1977, op. cit. for the details and method of comparing actual productivity by manufacturing industry with the forecast adjusted for the output growth rate error.

(1) See A. P. Budd, ‘Economic Policy and the Medium Term’ in G. D. N. Worswick and F. T. Blackaby (eds), The Medium Term, SSRC/NIESR, Heinemann, 1974.

(1) Economic Journal, March 1966, p. 88.

(1) For an extensive discussion of these issues, see the papers and discussion in Blackaby, op. cit.

(2) See ibid., especially comments by Lord Balogh.

(3) See especially, Cmnd 5879, ‘Public Expenditure 1978-9’, London, HMSO January 1975 pages 1-14; also Cmnds 6721-I and 6721-II, ‘The Government's Expenditure Plans', Vols. I. and II, London HMSO, January and February 1977.

(1) See, for example: W. Beckerman, ‘Projecting Europe's growth’, Economic Journal, December 1962; B. Balassa, ‘Some observations on Mr Beckerman's “Export propelled” growth model’, Economic Journal, December 1963; W. Beckerman, ‘A reply to Balassa’, Economic Journal, December 1963; R. E. Caves, ‘Export led growth’ in W. A. Eltis et al. (eds): Induction, growth and trade, London, Oxford Uni versity Press 1970, pp. 234-254; J. Cornwall, Modern capita lism, London, Martin Robertson, 1977; A. P. Thirlwall, ‘A model of export led growth with a balance of payments constraint’, university of Kent at Canterbury, Department of Economics, mimeo, 1978.

(2) National Institute Economic Review, February 1967, Chapter II, ‘The Medium Term’.

(3) Ibid., p. 29.

(4) Op. cit., and ‘Britain's Economic Problem, a balance of payments constraint’, National Westminster Bank Review, February 1978.

(1) Cmnd 5879, op. cit., acknowledges that, ‘there are big uncertainties in looking this far ahead’ and so presents alternative projections of the growth and use of resources 1973-79, respectively based on 21/2 per cent, 3 per cent and 31/2 per cent output growth assumptions. The DEA's ‘The task ahead’, (London, HMSO, 1969) also considered the implications of different assumptions about future prospects.