Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T12:37:26.641Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Bank Lending To Industrial and Commercial Companies in Three Models of the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Keith Cuthbertson  and
Nigel Foster
Keith Cuthbertson
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Nigel Foster
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In this article we compare the determination of bank advances to UK industrial and commercial companies (ICC) in three forecasting models of the British economy: those developed at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), at the Treasury (HMT) and at the Bank of England (BOE). In each of these models the private sector's demand for loans is an important element in the determination of the broadly-defined money stock (£M3), the rate of growth of which has been an important intermediate target of macroeconomic policy in recent years.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 102 , November 1982 , pp. 63 - 77
Copyright
Copyright © 1982 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Artis, M.J. (1978), ‘Monetary policy, part II’ in Blackaby, F. (ed.) British Economic Policy 1960-74, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.Google Scholar
Bank of England (1979), ‘Monetary base control’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, vol. 19, No. 2, June.Google Scholar
Bank of England (1981), ‘A listing of the Bank of England model’, Bank of England, mimeo.Google Scholar
Bank of England (1982), ‘The supplementary special deposits scheme’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, March.Google Scholar
Baumol, W.J. (1952), ‘The transactions demand for cash: an inventory theoretic approach’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 66, November.10.2307/1882104CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, S. (1978) ‘Bank lending to industrial and commercial companies’, HM Treasury, mimeo.Google Scholar
Beenstock, M., Warburton, P., Dicks, G., Longbottom, A. (1979), ‘Modelling the UK monetary sector’, London Business School EFU Discussion Paper, No. 70.Google Scholar
Bewley, R.A. (1981), The portfolio behaviour of the London clearing banks, 1963-71, Manchester School, September.Google Scholar
Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976), Time series analysis forecasting and control (revised edition), Holden-Day.Google Scholar
Brainard, W.C. and Tobin, J. ‘Pitfalls in financial model building,' American Economic Review, vol. 58, No. 2.Google Scholar
Cuthbertson, K. (1982a), ‘A comparative study of bank lending: theoretical survey and preliminary empirical results’, National Institute, mimeo, April.Google Scholar
Cuthbertson, K. (1982b), ‘Transactions models of bank lending to ICC’, National Institute mimeo, July.Google Scholar
Davidson, J. and Hendry, D.F. (1980), ‘Interpreting econometric evidence: the behaviour of consumers' expenditure in the UK’, NBER Conference Paper Series, No. 71, October.Google Scholar
Davies, N. and Newbold, P. (1979), ‘Some power studies of a portmanteau test of time series model specification’, Biometrika, vol. 66, No. 1, 153–5.10.1093/biomet/66.1.153CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davies, N., Triggs, C.M. and Newbold, P. (1977), ‘Significance levels of the Box-Pierce portmanteau statistic in finite samples, Biometrika, vol. 65, No. 3, 517–22.Google Scholar
Fair, R.C. and Jaffee, D.M. (1972), ‘Methods of estimation for markets in disequilibrium’, Econometrica, vol. 42.Google Scholar
Friedman, M. (1956), ‘The quantity theory of money: a restatement’ in Friedman, M. (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Godfrey, L.G. (1978a), ‘Testing for higher-order serial correlation when the regressors include lagged dependent variables’, Econometrica, vol. 46, No. 6, November, 1303–1310.10.2307/1913830CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Godfrey, L.G. (1978b), ‘Testing against general auto-regressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables, Econometrica, vol. 46, No. 6, November, 1293–1302.10.2307/1913829CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, C. (1981), ‘Better luck with sterling M3'?, Lloyds Bank Economic Bulletin, May.Google Scholar
Kiviet, J.F. (1981) ‘On the rigor of some specification tests for modelling dynamic relationships’ paper presented to Amsterdam Conference of the Econometric Society.Google Scholar
Lafont, J.J. and Garcia, R. (1977), ‘Disequilibrium econometrics for business loans’, Econometrica, vol. 45, July.Google Scholar
Miller, M. and Orr, D. (1966), ‘A model of the demand for money by firms’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August.10.2307/1880728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, M. and Orr, D. (1968), ‘The demand for money by firms: extension of analytic results’, Journal of Finance, December.10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00314.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, B.J. and Threadgold, A.R. (1980), ‘Bank lending and the money supply’ Bank of England, Discussion Paper, No. 10, July.Google Scholar
Norton, W.E. (1969), ‘Debt management and monetary policy in the UK’, Economic Journal, vol. 79, September.10.2307/2230377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallace, K.F. (1974), ‘Seasonal adjustment and relations between variables’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 69, 18–31.Google Scholar
Savage, D. (1978), ‘The monetary sector of the NIESR model: preliminary results’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Discussion Paper No. 23.Google Scholar
Spencer, P.D. and Mowl, C., (1978), ‘A financial sector for the Treasury model’, Government Economic Service Working Paper, No. 17, December.Google Scholar
Sprenkel, C.M. (1966), ‘Large economic units, banks and the transactions demand for money’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August, pp. 436–442.10.2307/1880729CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sprenkel, C.M. and Miller, M.H. (1980), ‘The precautionary demand for narrow and broad money’, Economica, vol. 47, No. 188, November 1980.Google Scholar
Tobin, J. (1956), ‘The interest elasticity of transactions demand for cash’, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 38, August.Google Scholar
Tobin, J. (1958), ‘Liquidity preference as behaviour towards risk’, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 25, February.10.2307/2296205CrossRefGoogle Scholar
HM Treasury, (1980), ‘Macroeconomic model-equation and variable listing’, December, HM Treasury.Google Scholar
White, W.R. (1975), ‘Some econometric models of deposit bank portfolio behaviour in the UK, 1963-70’, in Renton (ed.), Modelling the Economy, Heinemann, 1975.Google Scholar