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Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Abstract

The main text of this chapter describes the current economic situation and the outlook to the end of next year. A brief account is also given of two projections to 1991. This is followed by a set of short notes dealing with some aspects of the domestic economic situation in rather more detail. The forecasts were prepared by Andrew Britton, Andrew Gurney and Rhys Herbert, but they draw on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis and modelbuilding at the Institute.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 119 , February 1987 , pp. 6 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © 1987 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) We included an assessment of the economic policies of the Labour Party in our November Review, no. 118.

(2) See ‘The three measures of GDP’ by Andrew Britton and David Savage, National Institute Economic Review, no. 107, February 1984.

(3) For an assessment of some recent wage models using the technique of co-integration see ‘Wage models’ by S. Hall and S.G.B. Henry in this issue of the Review.

(4) ‘The Government's expenditure plans 1987-88 to 1989-90’, Cm 56. ‘The Autumn Statement 1987’, Cm 14.

(5) Real spending only fell in one year, 1985/6, but this was partly attributable to the effects of the coal strike which boosted spending in the previous year.

(6) Cm 56, op. cit., does not explicitly discuss the reasons for the rather uneven pattern of year-on-year expenditure growth: 2 per cent next year, broadly constant the year after and then a further 1½ per cent in 1989/90.

(7) A direct comparison is not readily possible because the Government's expenditure plans are not formulated in volume terms (deflated by own prices), nor is the breakdown by economic category consistent with national accounting definitions. The Reserve is not allocated either by department or by economic category.

(8) Appendix 7, Second Report from the Treasury and Civil Service Committee, Session 1980-87, ‘The Government's Economic Policy: Autumn Statement’, HC 27.

(9) This conclusion rests on a number of simplifying assumptions. Unfortunately the CSO has not produced any information on the effects of privatisation on the reclassification of investment between the public and private sectors.

(10) Cm 56, 11, p.30.