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Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The probability has increased that the UK will become a full member of the EMS before the next general election. The issue is by no means settled, but full membership now seems the right assumption to make for the forecast. The precise timing is difficult to foresee: on the one hand the present economic situation in this country makes an immediate move difficult, on the other hand the Government might be loath to make the move in the run-up to the election. Fortunately the choice of the exact date is not very material to the forecast. We have assumed the fourth quarter of the year is the date of entry. A more important question concerns the terms on which the UK joins: whether sterling joins at the market exchange rate of the day and the width of the band within which it can fluctuate.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 131 , February 1990 , pp. 6 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The forecasts were prepared by Bob Anderton, Andrew Britton, and Paul Gregg, but they draw on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis and modelbuilding at the Institute. Parts One and Two of the chapter were written by Andrew Britton, Part Three by Bob Anderton.

References

Foster, N., Henry, S.G.B. and Trinder, C. (1984), ‘Public and private sector pay: a partly disaggregated study’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 107.Google Scholar
Trinder, C. and Biswas, R. (1985), ‘Public services pay in the 1980s’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 112.Google Scholar
Trinder, C. (1988), Appendix to Home Economy Chapter, National Institute Economic Review, no. 124.Google Scholar